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Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 vanishes without trace

It would be the large target that's not responding to civilian, then military ATC and eventually, QRA interception. Depends on the effectiveness of the air defence of the intended target airspace, it seems. Doubtless there are some jurisdictions where they would be able to just stroll in, whereas there are others who will most definitely terminate the flight with extreme prejudice some way out from the destination.


The longer they keep it on the ground the more resources they are going to need to ensure it is up to executing the plan they have in mind and the greater the chance of premature discovery.

Aye. I'm not saying it's easy but then this could've been in the planning for months and we're only just seeing the beginnings of it.

It just occurs to me that a most effective way of hijacking a plane would be to draw as little attention to the matter as possible. If you can get hold of it in the first place but hide it away somewhere for a bit to prepare for the final execution, then all the better and they would have much more control over the operation.

Given the military may not even know when that launch may be or whether a new unresponsive 777 is just faulty or sinister, it might just buy enough time and confusion to get close enough to a target before the order is given to shoot it down. They may also have the tech to clone a transponder or send out misinformation. I don't know, it's pure speculation but if they've got control of a big plane on the ground, then they're at a big advantage already.
 
skyscraper101 much too convoluted - just hijack and then crash it immediately, far more straightforward.

But that's so passé. Look at the news storm they've already created and nothing has happened yet. Imagine if this plane resurfaced, refuled and took off with a new paint job, transponders swapped out, or kept off, under the cover of darkness and headed to the burj khalifa or something.

The thing with traditional hijacked planes is that everyone knows where they're going and where they're expected to be. It quickly becomes apparent when they've gone off course hijacked so fighter jets can be scrambled to take them down. If they were able to land this, tamper with it, and fly it off again as inconspicuously as possible, they may be able to get at a bigger target.
 
But that's so passé. Look at the news storm they've already created and nothing has happened yet. Imagine if this plane resurfaced, refuled and took off with a new paint job, transponders swapped out, or kept off, under the cover of darkness and headed to the burj khalifa or something.
I don't think landing and later taking off to target is viable. If terrorists wanted to target something, doing it from the initial flight makes most sense as it includes the element of surprise.

First I expect the military around key targets will now be on alert because of this possibility and secondly it would be hard to land such a large aircraft without someone noticing. That only leaves deserted air strips and I am not sure how many of these there are within flying range. Plus if the strip was not hardened it would require significant preparation to enable taking off which means a lot of workers.
The thing with traditional hijacked planes is that everyone knows where they're going and where they're expected to be. It quickly becomes apparent when they've gone off course hijacked so fighter jets can be scrambled to take them down. If they were able to land this, tamper with it, and fly it off again as inconspicuously as possible, they may be able to get at a bigger target.
As mentioned I expect air traffic control and military surveillance will now be on high alert.
 
If passengers were aware of a hijack, is there not a chance that somewhere on the flight path a switched-on mobile might connect to a base station somewhere? Unlikely if over the sea, but if over land that's a remote possibility.

Sept 11th changed hijacking - passengers are now much more likely to risk their lives trying to overcome hijackers, different from the old ransom-type situations where their best interests were served by being compliant. However, if the pilot changed course it'd be easy to claim a diversion due to weather or some other issue without arousing suspicion (and how many passengers would pay attention to where the plane actually was?).

Nobody will really know until this thing is fished out of the sea, whenever that may happen, and even then that might not give all the answers.
 
I'm sure with modern technology they can pinpoint someones mobile phone anywhere in the world, and there were reports that some passengers mobiles were just ring ing out, why could they not use that technology to locate them?
And surely you'd think the black box would have a GPS type signal in it, i suppose there are reasons why..
 
I'm sure with modern technology they can pinpoint someones mobile phone anywhere in the world

There are, particularly in such a relatively radio quiet zone as the Indian Ocean, however the people with that tech aren't going to show their hand. At best they might (if they have anything) communicate it to select members of the investigation or SAR teams via suitably obfuscated back channels (military SAR belonging to one of five nations might be simply directed to an appropriate place to start ;) though perhaps they might wait a little time if the outcome is self-evident, just to not make it too obvious). If the data were recorded it will probably take some time to mine it.

The find-my-phone type services will be useless here: next to no GPS signal in the cabin, very little chance of sufficient network interaction to get any sort of fix (handsets might start some sort of handshake but very little chance of data exchange; they will most likely assume they are still in KUL). Where the flight crossed the Malaysian peninsula there might be some logs of handset handshakes with a few cell base stations. If the aircraft ended up on the northern arc there could be others in other jurisdictions if the handset batteries kept them powered for that long. However, if the cabin was depressurised at altitude (could have been -40 degC) and the flight spent a lot of time out of cell base station range (the second factor almost certain) then the battery life will have been reduced. As mentioned before, trying to get those log details (if they exist and are recorded by the carriers concerned) from multiple carriers across different countries will take time, if it is possible at all.
and there were reports that some passengers mobiles were just ring ing out, why could they not use that technology to locate them?

That's been covered repeatedly. The system will provide a ring tone whilst hunting for a handset so the caller doesn't hang up.
And surely you'd think the black box would have a GPS type signal in it, i suppose there are reasons why..

It does record navigational data from the aircraft. Lat/long are in there. Once it is disconnected from a (disrupted) aircraft clearly it's not going to receive any more data. No point attaching GPS to it as that would get destroyed in any land impact and there would likely be a crater/fire/smoke/casualties/witnesses aiding location anyway. GPS is useless underwater (no signal). Hence the use of an ultrasonic locator beacon.

Aircraft have an emergency locator beacon, ELT, (actually several) on board which will activate on land (triggered by accelerometer on impact) or on immersion in salt water - though that will only help if the ELT can float free of the wreckage (not sink with it) or be carried free by any survivor. There are of course impact scenarios where the ELT(s) may not survive to transmit.
 
What about the possibility of people being on the plane that didn't get there via normal boarding? I'm assuming all the video of boarding on the way to KL and at KL has been examined and anywhere it might have been. Did everyone on the last few flights get on and get off?

These planes generally run nearly constantly so any break would be obvious.

The BBC article on some of the passengers shows it's pretty easy to tell if they aren't going to hijack a plane. Perhaps they just got taken by fully armed hijackers with a mission. That wouldn't bode well for the passengers. If I was the hijackers I would have landed, shot them all and taken off again. Can go further with nobody on board and no witnesses.

A boeing 777 while fairly fuel efficient, its not something you'd steal lightly, it costs over $90000 to fill up.
 
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There are, particularly in such a relatively radio quiet zone as the Indian Ocean, however the people with that tech aren't going to show their hand. At best they might (if they have anything) communicate it to select members of the investigation or SAR teams via suitably obfuscated back channels (military SAR belonging to one of five nations might be simply directed to an appropriate place to start ;) though perhaps they might wait a little time if the outcome is self-evident, just to not make it too obvious). If the data were recorded it will probably take some time to mine it.
You could find active mobile phones at sea by deploying your own mobile base station, a sort of honey trap for phones; I'm sure this is widely available as an electronic warfare capability and probably part of SAR kit too. Not much good if the phones are off though, or if you have no idea where to search; range is inherently limited, and moving at high speed would hinder it, although you could beat standard civilian network equipment in both senses.
 
Was reading Charlie Stross' thoughts earlier

http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/03/a-hypothesis.html

Basically he suggests. Fuselage cracks, as seen on similar Bowings, decompression, transponder lost / damaged. Crew's bottled oxygen supply faulty / missing, due to maintanence error. Crew manage to make slight adjustment before succumbing to oxygen starvation. Plane drifts on, til fuel runs out and falls into the Indian ocean or there abouts.

I haven't read all this thread, so perhaps been answered. Ockums Razer would seem to pointing to the above as more likely than an outlandish terrorist / criminal plot.
 
Surely they would have found wreckage already in that instance? The place the plane first disappeared was searched pretty closely, and the sea is fairly shallow.
 
[throws hat into ring]Plane gets hijacked, once the hijack is discovered, it's shot out of the sky whilst at sea to avoid any potential land casualties. Nation doing shooting obvs keeps schtumm and makes their 'shot' as untraceable as possible, hence no-ones piped up.
 
IIRC there was that golfer and his friends who's Leer jet suffered a decompression and they all fell unconscious, the plane then flew over most of the midwest United States on autopilot before crashing.

Can't recall his name
 
[throws hat into ring]Plane gets hijacked, once the hijack is discovered, it's shot out of the sky whilst at sea to avoid any potential land casualties. Nation doing shooting obvs keeps schtumm and makes their 'shot' as untraceable as possible, hence no-ones piped up.
Whilst i'm not generally prone to conspiracy theories, on the day of 9/11 i was working for this magazine company, and there was this email group thing we were on that was for journalists and the like. Reports came through (not officially of course) that the United 93 plane was shot down by the USAF just as it happened, but then was never repeated.
I always wondered if this was misinformation or a big cover-up.
 
Whilst i'm not generally prone to conspiracy theories, on the day of 9/11 i was working for this magazine company, and there was this email group thing we were on that was for journalists and the like. Reports came through (not officially of course) that the United 93 plane was shot down by the USAF just as it happened, but then was never repeated.
I always wondered if this was misinformation or a big cover-up.

People were talking about it in the pub on the day, confusion over how many planes involved etc. Half reports that a jet on it's way to Washington had been shot down.
 
This pilot has what looks like one of the most plausible explanations I've seen: A tire fire with incapacitating smoke, followed by an attempt to get to Langkawi before it was too late.

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/
He;s very confident of his theory, isn't he?
What I think happened is the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. You will find it along that route–looking elsewhere is pointless.
 
It didn't continue on the heading, it changed direction. I don;t think it's a fire, or an accident. IMO, this is a hijacking, we've just got to wait and see what it's been hijacked for.
 
If you were on first name terms with the auto pilot, you could afford to be confident as well
I imagine lots of people are, but I'm not sure that gives them the right to confidently state what happened without - so far -a shred of evidence to support his theory.
 
Was reading Charlie Stross' thoughts earlier

Basically he suggests. Fuselage cracks, as seen on similar Bowings, decompression, transponder lost / damaged. Crew's bottled oxygen supply faulty / missing, due to maintanence error. Crew manage to make slight adjustment before succumbing to oxygen starvation. Plane drifts on, til fuel runs out and falls into the Indian ocean or there abouts.

This particular 777 model didn't have fitted the satcom antenna for which the directive was issued: it wasn't applicable to that aircraft. The idea also doesn't account for a lack of mayday message, failure to observe procedure and dive to 14kft or lower nor explain why they would ignore the cabin altitude alarm nor the subsequent complex set of maneuvers we are told occurred (seen on primary radar).
 
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