Leavers on the 'left' - Main arguments and analysis please...

[ska invita]

Their one mp will do all this?

No, the danger is: the Tories will reshuffle into a a pro-Exit squad in order to go through the long process of exiting, there are already lots of mps who feel that way publicly, others still who will now feel able to come out in support because theres a mandate, and then new mps who might win seats as this juggernaut continues with its momentum....remember ukip itself is polling 18% at present....the idea that its all over for ukip now theyve achieved their mission is hugely wishful thinking IMO.... and as we now see all the above have the backing of large parts of the media (Sun/Mail/Telegraph/Times etc <the most read papers basically).

A successful exit vote isnt the end, its the beginning of another power struggle over how to make that exit happen and in what form....endless variables...and the ukip-style right are in the driving seat in terms of setting narrative and tone...the left are nowhere on it

 

[bi0boy]

A successful exit vote isnt the end, its the beginning of another power struggle over how to make that exit happen and in what form....endless variables...and the ukip-style right are in the driving seat in terms of setting narrative and tone...the left are nowhere on it

Exactly. Brexiters aren't voting for a Lexit they're voting for a Rexit which they will have to turn into Lexit after winning a GE.

 

[danny la rouge]

This is not a vote in a vacuum, its one with ukip style right in the ascendancy and set to feel justified to act off the back of a leave vote.

Much as I'd find it hard to see why I should vote for the EU, I will admit that this is my main niggling doubt. steeplejack suggested elsewhere (what he admits is a longshot) that in the event of Brexit, UKIP may be sated and dissolve. That'd be great, but I'm doubtful. It's more likely that a UKIP-inflected Tory right will be newly invigorated - not that Leave is a confidence vote in the UKIPpy right, but that because of the way the "debate" has been covered in the media and presented by the official campaigns, a Leave vote may be presented as such. Let's be honest here: that's a worry.

I've felt very disconnected from this referendum. In real life here, nobody is talking about it. I had thought it was a phony war, whipped up by the media. But over the last couple of days I've been reading reports like that of John Harris in the Guardian. He paints a picture that I don't recognise, where people are engaged. Not in the official campaigns, but as a conduit for their dissatisfaction. I think the difference must be that I'm in Scotland: people here really aren't attaching their dissatisfaction - or interest - to this issue (indeed, if polls are correct, the majority here are for Remain, though they're not necessarily as enthusiastic about the institutions of the EU as sometimes depicted). ska invita and others draw parallels and differences with the independence referendum. I think the indyref and GE15 are the points at which that same dissatisfaction was expressed here. Those outlets weren't available in Stoke, Merthyr, Birmingham and Manchester (visited by John Harris). Mrs la rouge's family are from the Stoke area, and we visit regularly. It's true that those visits are the only times anyone has discussed the Brexit referendum with me. Maybe that's not just coincidence after all.

I'm still most likely to abstain, because this for me has been a big nothing. Turning on the TV all I see is a spat between neoliberal A and neoliberal B. That's not my fight. But looking at the dissatisfaction described in Stoke, Merthyr, Birmingham and Manchester, I recognise that as my fight. Not the conduit, but the dissatisfaction. If that dissatisfaction is interpreted by the media and the political elite as a vote of confidence in a UKIPpy Tory right, then we have a problem. (There is a parallel though different problem in Scotland, which readers of the Scotland boards can discover for themselves).

I'm thinking aloud here. These aren't fully formed thoughts, because I've given this referendum very little attention.

 

[inva]

No, the danger is: the Tories will reshuffle into a a pro-Exit squad in order to go through the long process of exiting, there are already lots of mps who feel that way publicly, others still who will now feel able to come out in support because theres a mandate, and then new mps who might win seats as this juggernaut continues with its momentum....remember ukip itself is polling 18% at present....the idea that its all over for ukip now theyve achieved their mission is hugely wishful thinking IMO.... and as we now see all the above have the backing of large parts of the media (Sun/Mail/Telegraph/Times etc <the most read papers basically).

A successful exit vote isnt the end, its the beginning of another power struggle over how to make that exit happen and in what form....endless variables...and the ukip-style right are in the driving seat in terms of setting narrative and tone...the left are nowhere on it

the Times supports remain btw

 

[danny la rouge]

the Times supports remain btw

And the Daily Mail's edition in Scotland does, too.

 

[inva]

And the Daily Mail's edition in Scotland does, too.

and the Mail on Sunday

 

[ska invita]

But looking at the dissatisfaction described in Stoke, Merthyr, Birmingham and Manchester, I recognise that as my fight. Not the conduit, but the dissatisfaction. If that dissatisfaction is interpreted by the media and the political elite as a vote of confidence in a UKIPpy Tory right, then we have a problem..

This.
And that is happening, and we do have that problem, and its not going away whatever the result is on Thursday.
In fact a remain will will create angry leave voters, as it did in scotland, who will pile into ukip-spectrum all the more I would predict

 

[brogdale]

Yes, the capitalist press are split, just as much as the right party of capital.
For me, that's a warning signal that danny la rouge 's analysis (above) is as fully formed as it needs to be.

 

[inva]

That's where we disagree then. This is not a vote in a vacuum, its one with ukip style right in the ascendancy and set to feel justified to act off the back of a leave vote.

The impact of it isn't happening in a vacuum it's happening in a particular moment in time with particular consequences. I think those consequences need giving serious thought and recognition. What I see leave doing is enabling and empowering the different flavours of kippers...moving us away from the eu and nearer to a U.S.model. Fuck that.

Will come back on the Greek stuff tonight.

the reply to your post by danny la rouge has prompted a couple of other thoughts on this thing of the vacuum so I thought I'd follow up my earlier answer.

sure, the referendum isn't taking place in a vacuum, but there is a vacuum in the debate and in politics, and its one that the eu (among other things) is designed to create by disempowering and silencing the working class. Is telling people to suck it up and vote remain, like they've had to suck it up at election after election (vote labour, vote tory to stop ukip or whatever) going to help? yes, the right can take advantage of an exit, it can (far better than 'the left') take advantage of a vote to remain as well. Im not sure what good it does to preserve/support an unreformable tool of oppression across which in many places the right is already rising.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

If that dissatisfaction is interpreted by the media and the political elite as a vote of confidence in a UKIPpy Tory right, then we have a problem.

I think this is exactly what would happen and is pretty much why I'm voting in. The idea that an out vote can somehow be built into a positive for the left is laughable.

 

[redsquirrel]

I've felt very disconnected from this referendum. In real life here, nobody is talking about it. I had thought it was a phony war, whipped up by the media. But over the last couple of days I've been reading reports like that of John Harris in the Guardian. He paints a picture that I don't recognise, where people are engaged. Not in the official campaigns, but as a conduit for their dissatisfaction. I think the difference must be that I'm in Scotland: people here really aren't attaching their dissatisfaction - or interest - to this issue (indeed, if polls are correct, the majority here are for Remain, though they're not necessarily as enthusiastic about the institutions of the EU as sometimes depicted).

I have to say when you said previously that no one you knew in real life was talking about it I was quite surprised. I mean I'm not even in the UK and it's been talked about here and just by UK citizens. I think it must be the Scotland factor with Remain being so dominant there.

BTW, excellent post danny

 

[brogdale]

I think this is exactly what would happen and is pretty much why I'm voting in. The idea that an out vote can somehow be built into a positive for the left is laughable.

You may not agree with the left-leavists, but that does not make their long-standing and sincerely held antipathy to the EU 'laughable'.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

You may not agree with the left-leavists, but that does not make their long-standing and sincerely held antipathy to the EU 'laughable'.

An antipathy to the EU I can fully understand and support, but the idea that here, now, in this climate, an exit will be a good thing for us or can be somehow made into one? No. It's fantasy

 

[redsquirrel]

I'm not interested in building something positive for what I consider the "left" let alone the motley alliance of liberals that many Remain voters want the left to be. It's the possibilities it opens for labour that are the reason why I attempted to vote Leave.

 

[JimW]

Liberal remain strikes me as asking us to pass up a rare opportunity to damage one of the key institutions of the neoliberal order out of fear of a marginally worse iteration of what we're getting already, and while a reasonable prognosis, no conclusive argument that even that would be the case.

 

[brogdale]

An antipathy to the EU I can fully understand and support, but the idea that here, now, in this climate, an exit will be a good thing for us or can be somehow made into one? No. It's fantasy

You're asking them to wait to 2057?

 

[Cid]

You're asking them to wait to 2057?

Why this eternal conviction that it must be another 30 years until another ref?

 

[JuanTwoThree]

I completely understand that European social democracy has been sucked into neo-liberalism and that it's hard to differentiate between it and a right wing that's more or less Christian Democrat. That's like Blairite and Cameronite. But bear in mind that we also have parties well to the right of them, all the way across to neo-nazis, and the SDs are often the only viable (parliamentary) opposition. Social Democracy could be steered back to something more bearable. I know that working with the slightly left is a debate that has gone on for what? a century?

And even if "Fuck things up" is your goal are you sure that a traditionally more volatile European framework would not give you more scope than Britain, where nothing ever happens?

 

[danny la rouge]

I have to say when you said previously that no one you knew in real life was talking about it I was quite surprised.

Lest I be misunderstood: political commentators are talking about it, and pro-independence activists are talking about it on social media, but the angle they are giving it is "if Scotland votes Remain and rUK votes Leave, what will that mean for indyref2?". It's an arcane discussion that ordinary people aren't bringing up with the next person in the queue at the bus stop. It doesn't have the popular connection to their reality that you get a sense of when you read the Harris piece.

 

[danny la rouge]

Don't want to harp on about Scotland, but just for a frame of reference about the different ways this issue is being seen here: there are no UKIP local councillors in Scotland. None.

I don't think you can deduce from that that the EU is loved in Scotland, just that there is a different dynamic.

 

[brogdale]

Why this eternal conviction that it must be another 30 years until another ref?

Experience of the political reality of the gap between 1975 & 2016...maybe?

 

[ska invita]

A question for the committed exiters, do you think the total destruction of the eu would be a good thing? Should every country leave do you think?

 

[ska invita]

Don't want to harp on about Scotland, but just for a frame of reference about the different ways this issue is being seen here: there are no UKIP local councillors in Scotland. None.

I don't think you can deduce from that that the EU is loved in Scotland, just that there is a different dynamic.

Is there much talk about another referendum for independence in light of a Leave vote?

 

[stethoscope]

Some excellent posts here - especially @Nigel Irritable and @danny la rouge. Have already posted on the other two threads about my various arguments/thoughts about the possibilities of a left leave despite the backdrop of the predominant narratives of the right and capital in both remain and leave camps, and frankly I can't muster much more energy on it. Other than to reiterate something I've posed a few times: that if the conclusion for some is that the best we can realistically achieve for the left and the working class is EU neoliberalism (that is on a constant shift away from social/worker rights towards more market/economic liberalism) with the occasional bit of reformism, then that's a depressing thought and shows a terrible lack of confidence and radical fight.

It's clearly not going to be easy through a leave, but there does still remain chances to derail EU neoliberalism (which might see a rejuvinated anti-neoliberal path for other member states and workers too), to disrupt capital, and especially when the Tories are heavily split and only have a small majority, and I still maintain that UKIP will fold especially after a leave. We all know that what's on offer is pretty shit either way, but it still seems to me that a leave can offer more long term for the left and the working class than a remain.

 

[Cid]

Experience of the political reality of the gap between 1975 & 2016...maybe?

That's 40 years. But that's essentially 40 years of neo-liberal parties with no desire to call a ref. It doesn't mean the next 40 years will be the same. Inability to act on some fundamental part of a legislative programme (e.g nationalisation) could trigger a referendum. Not that that any justification is strictly needed.

 

[weltweit]

... and I still maintain that UKIP will fold especially after a leave. We all know that what's on offer is pretty shit either way, but all possibilities.

Surely a leave vote and UKIP folding would damage Labour's chances. The former UKIP voters will still exist and would then vote tory, boosting tory chances at the next election.

 

[Teaboy]

This.
And that is happening, and we do have that problem, and its not going away whatever the result is on Thursday.
In fact a remain will will create angry leave voters, as it did in scotland, who will pile into ukip-spectrum all the more I would predict

Yes, it seems to me that an SNP style 'losing' bounce for UKIP could well be the outcome of narrow vote for remain.

 

[Cid]

On leave UKIP can survive on its immigration ticket for as long as it can say immigration is a problem. Which, if we do a single market exit, may be a long time. That's without considering them 'rebranding'.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

I'm not interested in building something positive for what I consider the "left" let alone the motley alliance of liberals that many Remain voters want the left to be. It's the possibilities it opens for labour that are the reason why I attempted to vote Leave.

Left, labour, whatever. the possibilities are fuck all.

 

[chilango]

Further to danny la rouge's point about "no-one talking about it", I'd echo that in part.

The only people I hear regularly talking about irl are m/c liberals building themselves up into a panic. The m/c Brexiters I know don't bring it up so much and the w/c people I know tend to be a lot more dismissive of the whole charade.