Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
what do you mean by 'true'?
campaign against welfare cuts and poverty
- Thread starter Blagsta
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Or a sock puppet. The voice is similar to a previous one, and the poor spelling could be a red herring.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I wouldn't be surprised if he was an alumnus of kcl
Ash Mahay
Member
True - being in accord with fact or reality.
I know its difficult, in political economics, to get an exact truth as people like to massage figures but if something is broadly backed with facts & reality we can generally take it as broadly true, no matter how convenient, or inconvenient to our beliefs.
In the context of this thread it refers to the fact that, over the history of the modern welfare state, spending has increased.
We might argue by to much, or by not enough, but the reality is that it has increased & that the current model, placed next to the economic model(s) of the same period, is unsustainable, without a change to one, or other.
My initial post, & the subsequent thrust of my argument, has merely been to point this fact out & to explain that creative accountancy can only paper the cracks for so long before a more radical solution is needed.
I further feel that the more money that is thrown at such banaid productions the less money there is for real solutions (as I state above, Im not entirely settled on what the best solution is).
I know its difficult, in political economics, to get an exact truth as people like to massage figures but if something is broadly backed with facts & reality we can generally take it as broadly true, no matter how convenient, or inconvenient to our beliefs.
In the context of this thread it refers to the fact that, over the history of the modern welfare state, spending has increased.
We might argue by to much, or by not enough, but the reality is that it has increased & that the current model, placed next to the economic model(s) of the same period, is unsustainable, without a change to one, or other.
My initial post, & the subsequent thrust of my argument, has merely been to point this fact out & to explain that creative accountancy can only paper the cracks for so long before a more radical solution is needed.
I further feel that the more money that is thrown at such banaid productions the less money there is for real solutions (as I state above, Im not entirely settled on what the best solution is).
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Why would you banaid?
BigTom
Well-Known Member
Why does the first proposition lead to the second? what makes this statement "fact", or does the fact only refer to rising welfare spending?
The graph you've posted is not the one you need btw, as you need a graph which shows the cumulative level of spending (in real terms) each year, not the % increase year on year. I'm not disagreeing with your claim that social security spending has risen in real terms btw, but you need a different set of data to prove it.
Another question is where (as in on whom - which category/ies of claimant, rather than geographically) do you think that spending has risen most?
Meltingpot
Living in our pools we soon forget about the sea
I've been called that several times on here (and worse). I don't like it but I'd rather it was stopped by mutual consent rather than by the admins getting heavy about it.
Either you can have guidelines as to which insults are acceptable on here, or you can just accept that Urban is a rough-and-tumble kind of place and that "if you can't stand the heat you should get out of the kitchen." Whichever you do, you're not going to please everyone.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Ok. What are your long-term suggestions for replacing immediate payments?
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
With penetrating insight like that, you'd make good...well, cannon fodder, that's about all.
A lot more in my life than in yours, I suspect.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
Ah, I called you "naive or partisan" because you "effectively" said that, did I?
Strike one!
My calling you that had nothing "effectively or otherwise" to do with an "annual percentage increase in social security spending in real terms". It had to do with your claim that for the past twenty years the state had been looking after the most vulnerable at great expense, at the cost of doing anything to solve long-term issues of dependency. Why you think that is "effectively" the same thing as that "annual percentage increase" chart points up either naivety or partisanship. The two may intersect, but speaking of increased costs is hardly a solution (or even a reference) to solving those long-term issues.
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/49310000/gif/_49310591_welfare_464.gif
Your suspicions are irrelevant. Facts please.
Interesting. It's nothing to do with what you've said and how you've said it, it's rather to do with others and how they've chosen to perceive you.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
No, we take it as a conditional truth. One that can (and in many cases will) be superceded by a truth supported by further data at a later time. This means that when using that truth as a basis for calculation, we have to allow for the degree of contingency that truth expresses. To merely take it as "broadly true" is to "pick and choose" convenient data to support a thesis.
As has population, GDP and a host of other factors.
Sustainability is a moveable feast. You appear (to "round up" your arguments) to be saying that progressive taxation is a non-starter because it will cause capital flight, so that the only way to "balance the books" is to dismantle the welfare state.
To that I say "of course it'd appear that way. You're deliberately throwing away a tool because you believe it will cause an effect".
Belief, not fact.
Except that it doesn't include taxation because "A lot of that wealth can vanish in a heart beat in the face of hostility."
Well, it had to happen, especially after his 'work sets you free' comments
Its beautifully edited and it never gets old
and stuff Godwins...
btw, wouldn't be surprised if Smith tries to get this taken off, though he will probably be moving in Scumeron's reshuffle...
Ash Mahay
Member
I wont dispute that but its close enough that people can pretty much work out one from the other.
Im not one to chase all over the internet to prove common knowledge as that ends up as a full time job.
Ill put my hand on my heart and say I really dont know (on the net a lot of people like to fake knowledge but I dont think that serves anyone).
I would suspect the answers to that could be surprising.
Ash Mahay
Member
With penetrating insight like that, you'd make good...well, cannon fodder, that's about all.
lol if you want me to take that statement seriously youre going to have to raise your game considerably as your initial posts showed me the side of you that likes to substitute insults for any form of intellect and people like that are two a penny on forums.
Ash Mahay
Member
To be fair inconsistancy tends to be the norm on forums, not least because most complaints tend to be against those with an opossing view to that of the complainer, rather than evenly based on behaviour, or useage of a word.
Theres many a thread in cyber space where two people use exact same words or sentiments but people selectively only object to the useage by the person they disagree with.
Moderators & admin cant read every post so it goes by peer reaction and thus becomes inconsistent.
stuff_it
Too skool for cool
Here on Urban we don't require you to do that, but we do require that the data that you do choose to use is accurate and shows what you intend. I'm taking a massively wild stab here that your phd isn't in maths or hard science, nor any of the ologies that would require you to have a decent grasp of statistics and how to sue them appropriately.
I suspect they aren't surprising at all (tbf I don't have time to look them up now). I am guessing that there has been a rise in the last few years of people signing long term that have never signed on before and/or who have never signed on for over six months before, including people with a reasonably good degree in a non-shortage area who are just now discovering that the sole purpose of their student debt is to overqualify them for rolling night shifts in a warehouse on agency min wage.
I expect that there has also been a steep rise in spending on disability benefits that is made entirely from the government implementing the WCA and handing over control to ATOS. I seem to remember several articles about this in various newspapers. Again can't be bothered to look them up atm as I have to go walk the dogs. Will probably do it later. If you were much good at trolling I'd probably drink some rum first, but I'm not sure you deserve it.
Frankie Jack
Not a bloke..
The government has drawn up plans to withdraw £71 a week from sick and disabled benefit claimants if they fail to take steps to get back into the workplace.
A leaked draft of a Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) template letter warns sick and disabled claimants they will lose 70% of their weekly employment support allowance (ESA) if they refuse to take part in work-related activities, more than doubling the current fine.
The DWP has also told the Guardian that it is finalising plans on whether to make unpaid and unlimited work experience placements part of work-related activity.
At present, those claiming ESA who have also been deemed fit to eventually return to work after controversial health assessments run by the private firm and Paralympic sponsor Atos can only be docked a maximum of £28.15 a week if they break their agreement with their job advisers without "good cause". http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/sep/03/disabled-benefits-claimants-fines-work?CMP=twt_gu
A leaked draft of a Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) template letter warns sick and disabled claimants they will lose 70% of their weekly employment support allowance (ESA) if they refuse to take part in work-related activities, more than doubling the current fine.
The DWP has also told the Guardian that it is finalising plans on whether to make unpaid and unlimited work experience placements part of work-related activity.
At present, those claiming ESA who have also been deemed fit to eventually return to work after controversial health assessments run by the private firm and Paralympic sponsor Atos can only be docked a maximum of £28.15 a week if they break their agreement with their job advisers without "good cause". http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/sep/03/disabled-benefits-claimants-fines-work?CMP=twt_gu
equationgirl
Respect my existence or expect my resistance
Ash, people have been asking you questions about yourself, trying to engage with you and get to know you a little, and you've ignored them. There are a lot of good people on urban.
Also, believe me, VP is going REALLY easy on you because you're new. REALLY REALLY EASY.
Welcome to Urban.
Also, believe me, VP is going REALLY easy on you because you're new. REALLY REALLY EASY.
Welcome to Urban.
Ash Mahay
Member
Thank you for the welcome (I knew someone would be welcoming eventually.
As for VP I treat people as I find them. As I (think) I said earlier I may well be wrong about him but I can only go on what I see and when Im greeted by someone who doesnt know me, & is basing all they say on a couple of posts, yet lead off by implying Im an idiot, naive, partisan, talking out my arse & mere canon fodder to their giant intellect I tend to laugh & wonder if Ive met a fool.
Its not really the most endearing welcome and isnt usually indicative of anything but a small mind.
As I say I may be wrong, but its really now down to VP to convince me that the first impression he gave me was wrong. Maybe if he does I might stop going VERY VERY EASY on him & engage, but at present Im about one incoming insult away from writing him off as someone to ignore.
I hope your right & Im wrong but I am going to take convincing after the start I saw.
After a million newsgroups & forums Ive seen to many blowhards & have little time for them.
Maybe next time hes here VP might change attitude & begin to impress. I already suggested it as a way forward, so heres hoping.
Once again, thanks for the welcome.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
Produce posts that have some substance to them, rather than blethering your opinions, and you might get treated more seriously. Until then, just crapping out generalities isn't going to inspire anyone to take you seriously.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
So people have to take you at your word, even when you're word is mostly unsubstantiated?
Here's a clue. It's the one that right-wing "think-tanks" have been mithering about for a decade or so, using phrases like "demographic time bomb", as if it wasn't foreseeable from about 1975-onward.
Only if you've avoided reading anything to do with welfare policy, government spending and the multifaceted arguments around provision of pensions for the last 20 years.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
I hate statistics with a passion, and I'd love to stuff Cronbach's Alpha up Cronbach's arse, handy though it is, but I do understand them, for better or worse, because you can't really avoid having to use and understand them in (as you mention above) so many disciplines.
Biggest rise (thoroughly predictable) is in pension age-related benefits, because of the whole "ageing population" issue, and the fact that the real effect of the rise of the pensionable age won't kick in for the government for another couple of financial years. Biggest percentage rise, I believe, has been in under 25s claiming.
It's looking increasingly likely that the JC+s have been offsetting the rise in long-term JSA claims etc through that neat little trick with coercing people into claiming working tax credits, nicely clipping them from the unemployment rolls.
I'm not sure that spending on contracts and for appeals can actually be counted as "spending on disability benefits", and it's certainly the case that under the Incapacity Benefit regime, recipient count was shrinking (400,000 in 5 years), and cost was shrinking too, and although DLA claims had grown, that included both fresh Attendance Allowance claims made by over-65s and the expanded claims for disabled children legislated a few years back.
Which rum?
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
I'm "going easy" because I'm a bit fuddled at the mo, as it's a bad day for pain, and I'm soaked in a tramadol, morphine sulphate and codeine phosphate cocktail. Nice except for the incessant breakthrough pain.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
Just for the record, I implied nothing. I asked you whether you're an idiot; I stated that you must be naive or partisan; I haven't mentioned anything about you "talking out of your arse", I said (in the context of "naive", "partisan" and "arse") that "I think that if that's your view, you're either naive, or so partisan you can't see beyond your own arse", and the "cannon fodder" comment was with reference to the fact that your insight with reference to your assumption that I've never studied economics was so penetrating that at best you'd be cannon fodder in a war, not a member of the General Staff.
Context is everything.
equationgirl
Respect my existence or expect my resistance
I may have been a bit people (fuckwit) intolerant at work today for most of the day for the same reason. No morphine for me, sadlyI'm "going easy" because I'm a bit fuddled at the mo, as it's a bad day for pain, and I'm soaked in a tramadol, morphine sulphate and codeine phosphate cocktail. Nice except for the incessant breakthrough pain.
Hope that breakthrough pain settles down a bit.
equationgirl
Respect my existence or expect my resistance
Most of urban is very friendly, welcoming and supportive to be honest, but the Politics forum is a different beast. There's less fluffiness, more backing-up your statements with facts and less tolerance of the ill-informed or those who don't substantiate their statements.
Violent Panda is an incredibly knowledgeable poster - and extremely well-read to boot. I've learnt a lot from him, and from other posters. Don't write him off, it would be your loss if you did, Ash.
Sadly, urban does get a lot of spam and trolls, so regular posters do tend to be a little suspicious of new posters from time to time, especially if someone new is posting on a particularly emotive subject such as benefit cuts.
We are genuinely interested in your PhD though - what did you do it on?
I've been on urban for over 7 years but it's only the last year or so that I've felt sufficiently well-informed to post on some of the threads.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
I may have been a bit people (fuckwit) intolerant at work today for most of the day for the same reason. No morphine for me, sadly
Is the cow who's in calf still working?
equationgirl
Respect my existence or expect my resistance
Yes - 10 weeks to go. She was in meetings all morning, it was some muppet from a different department who was rude, dismissive and unmanaged. He also set up a 5 hour meeting with an external consultant without checking to see of people were actually free to attend (there's 6 hours of meetings already booked for that day). Your basic thoughtlessness, really, I was just a little (lot) less tolerant of his batshit hatstand ideas than usual.
stuff_it
Too skool for cool
Cockspur, I don't seem allergic and it's smooth enough to drink without all those nasty allergenic mixers.Which rum?
BigTom
Well-Known Member
Are you going to engage with my first question?
I don't know either, if it wasn't late I'd do some research tonight to confirm my thoughts which is basically what stuff_it and VP have said - which is in the last few years the biggest rise has been in unemployment benefits (hardly surprising) but tha over the past couple or so decades it's been pensioners - who do claim 2/3rds of the benefits bill.
http://www.bevanfoundation.org/blog/five-things-for-cameron-to-remember/
So, are a group of people who have mostly worked and paid taxes all their lives addicted to state cash and in poverty for that reason?
If you're going to choose to only answer one question here, I'd prefer it to be the one I asked in my last post that oyu ignored, it's much more important. cheers.
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