Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[not-bono-ever]

"“We’ll go after their yachts, their luxury apartments their money and their ability to send their kids to fancy colleges in the west. We will also engage other governments, so as to detect and disrupt the movement of ill-gotten gains, and deny these individuals their ability to hide their assets in jurisdictions across the world,” the official said".

The US, like a stopped clock, get it right once today.

scales have fallen from their eyes etc. Why did no one tell them that these were bad people in the first place ?

 

[TopCat]

Vladimir Putin: What’s going on inside his head?

 

[Rob Ray]

This whole thing about "quick victory" is totally baffling tbh. Iraq took three weeks to fall in the most lopsided military conflict imaginable. The Afghanistan war took two months (and then 20 years). Those are "quick." I can't imagine Putin would have expected victory in less than a week in his wildest dreams unless he'd totally lost it.

 

[elbows]

Maidan Sq cam

Quite a few people in the youtube chat for that particular stream think its just a false pretences replay of a stream from DW news from a few nights ago. And its certainly been zoomed in slightly compared to that original DW stream, presumably to remove the DW logo. And DW havent been broadcasting tonight.

 

[nogojones]

That’s not intelligence, it’s propaganda. It’s just reinforcing narratives.

You're sharp eyed tonight

 

[Dogsauce]

I’m sure satellite photography could provide confirmation of downed IL76s and smouldering tank columns if western governments (or media) wanted to prove Russia was having a rough time. Or even decent regular photos.

At some point we’ll probably see aerial pictures of the burned out retreating Iraqi army column from Gulf War 1 used by Twitter propagandists.

 

[tim]

They established Sharia law in the short-lived unofficial state, including compulsory dress codes for women. The Chechen separatists were not nice people.

ETA: That is in no way intended to justify Russian actions in Chechnya, by the way. But sometimes both sides are shits. See also the Kosovo Liberation Army.

The Chechen separatists I've taught were very nice. The first Chechen President Dudayev was overtly secular, which didn't stop Yeltsin from having him murdered. Previously, he was the last Soviet military commander in Estonia, where he ignored orders to surpress those calling for independence.

Obituary: Dzhokhar Dudayev

 

[RileyOBlimey]

This whole thing about "quick victory" is totally baffling tbh. Iraq took three weeks to fall in the most lopsided military conflict imaginable. The Afghanistan war took two months (and then 20 years). Those are "quick." I can't imagine Putin would have expected victory in less than a week in his wildest dreams unless he'd totally lost it.

I’ve got a sneaking suspicion he wasn’t entirely planning to invade but more likely intending a bluff….and that went awry. He’s been baited, at numerous stages, to ramp up aggression until he could not back down.

Now he may be in a bit of a pickle. Bless.

 

[pesh]

We've invaded Ukraine by mistake, can you help us etc...
And you were accusing elbows of posting shit.

 

[pesh]

.

 

[Raheem]

This whole thing about "quick victory" is totally baffling tbh. Iraq took three weeks to fall in the most lopsided military conflict imaginable. The Afghanistan war took two months (and then 20 years). Those are "quick." I can't imagine Putin would have expected victory in less than a week in his wildest dreams unless he'd totally lost it.

You're not comparing like with like. The battle for Baghdad took five days, at the end of which coalition of forces had control of the city. Each day, they took different districts.

What's happening in Kyiv is that the Russians appear, for the time being, to be unable to advance at all.

 

[A380]

You're sharp eyed tonight

Good job they are here really, what would we have done otherwise?

 

[RileyOBlimey]

We've invaded Ukraine by mistake, can you help us etc...
And you were accusing elbows of posting shit.

Go fuck yourself.

 

[Supine]

I’ve got a sneaking suspicion he wasn’t entirely planning to invade but more likely intending a bluff…

It’s so easy to accidently start firing missiles and sending tanks into another country!

 

[tim]

This whole thing about "quick victory" is totally baffling tbh. Iraq took three weeks to fall in the most lopsided military conflict imaginable. The Afghanistan war took two months (and then 20 years). Those are "quick." I can't imagine Putin would have expected victory in less than a week in his wildest dreams unless he'd totally lost it.

The problem is probably not the victory, but what comes after. The Russians would need to install a client regime that is acceptable to the general population. If they can't do that, they or their puppet will presumably face a very long-term, debilitating insurgency. A giant Northern Ireland where the valiant Unionists make up a much smaller proportion of the population

 

[tim]

It’s so easy to accidently start firing missiles and sending tanks into another country!

Indeed, the Swiss have accidentally invaded Liechtenstein three times over the past 40 years. The last time they did it they burnt down a forest.

Neutral Switzerland Has Invaded Liechtenstein 3 times in 30 years - by Mistake

 

[Dogsauce]

It’s so easy to accidently start firing missiles and sending tanks into another country!

Tbh there was an element in some of the reporting/analysis suggesting Putin was just grandstanding/sabre rattling for domestic reasons and too chicken shit to actually go through with the plan. Probably not a good idea to play this card against a fragile male ego with a steroid-fogged brain.

 

[DaveCinzano]

Go fuck yourself.

Unsubstantiated rumours & speculation ----->

 

[elbows]

I’ve got a sneaking suspicion he wasn’t entirely planning to invade but more likely intending a bluff….and that went awry. He’s been baited, at numerous stages, to ramp up aggression until he could not back down.

Now he may be in a bit of a pickle. Bless.

You are all over the place on this. On Monday you thought Putin had bottled it!

 

[RileyOBlimey]

It’s so easy to accidently start firing missiles and sending tanks into another country!

When you’re a thin skinned, bully who usually gets your way with intimidation egged on by sycophants…

 

[RileyOBlimey]

You are all over the place on this. On Monday you thought Putin had bottled it!

Still think Putin’s priority is hacking British Airways?

 

[Supine]

When you’re a thin skinned, bully who usually gets your way with intimidation egged on by sycophants…

That’s enough about you, what about Putin?

 

[elbows]

Still think Putin’s priority is hacking British Airways?

Why are you bringing up a subject again that you moaned at me for discussing on this thread? Oh, I just checked your record on this, and you previously made numerous posts on this thread about Russian cyber warfare capabilities, and attacked another poster for supposedly lacking your level of sophistication and knowledge on the subject. And shortly before having a go at me earlier you made a claim about details of what really went wrong with BA's systems that you have yet to provide any source for.

Plus whenever you post I end up seeing an image of fucking Boris Johnson.

 

[Humberto]

Putin's blown it. A reckon of course, but modern insurgency warfare experience plus strong material backing says he's fucked imv.

I know that could change tomorrow. But if he unleashes hell he's dead anyway.

 

[RileyOBlimey]

Why are you bringing up a subject again that you moaned at me for discussing on this thread? Oh, I just checked your record on this, and you previously made numerous posts on this thread about Russian cyber warfare capabilities, and attacked another poster for supposedly lacking your level of sophistication and knowledge on the subject. And shortly before having a go at me earlier you made a claim about details of what really went wrong with BA's systems that you have yet to provide any source for.

Plus whenever you post I end up seeing an image of fucking Boris Johnson.

Yes, I provided you with a credible source for the IT fuck up at BA, you ignored it and hilariously still are

 

[DaveCinzano]

Perky story from the Beeb's Russian language service, based on (purported) voice notes between Chechen boss dude Kadyrov and Martynov, the 2ic of the Chechen Росгвардии (National Guard/army) leaked by a disgruntled former Russian law enforcement official.

The gist is that Putin tapped Kadyrov to supply beardy hard bastards for Ukraine well before he revealed his plans to his generals.

"В районе Майдана или Крещатика танцы подготовим". Что человеку с голосом Кадырова докладывали накануне вторжения России - BBC News Русская служба

В распоряжении Би-би-си оказались голосовые сообщения, которыми накануне российского вторжения на Украину обменивались человек с голосом главы Чечни Рамзана Кадырова и человек с голосом зама чеченской Росгвардии Даниила Мартынова. Они обсуждают, как бойцы будут заходить в здания в Украине и...

www.bbc.com

 

[Supine]

I really think it is too early to say Putin has blown it, things are slow, not going to plan. War takes time and there are many twists in the road. I’m rooting for Ukraine but not hopeful yet.

 

[petee]

look, good truckers

 

[Weller]

I’ve got a sneaking suspicion he wasn’t entirely planning to invade but more likely intending a bluff….and that went awry. He’s been baited, at numerous stages, to ramp up aggression until he could not back down.

Now he may be in a bit of a pickle. Bless.

We've invaded Ukraine by mistake, can you help us etc...
And you were accusing elbows of posting shit.

All an honest mistake misprinted maps tanks thought it Sweden took a wrong turn else anonymous hacked sat navs sent his tanks across the border instead of Denmark

Seen worse on twitter they'd run with it

 

[Humberto]

I really think it is too early to say Putin has blown it, things are slow, not going to plan. War takes time and there are many twists in the road. I’m rooting for Ukraine but not hopeful yet.

Oh yeah he's far from done. But if Nato can't take Afghanistan against Kalishnikovs and IEDS, Putin can't take a more connected country with full 'western' backing and sanctuary.