The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[bimble]

'Other' and loads of abuse obviously.

She's alright, for a politician. About 73 times better than the man whose constituency i live in now, who would never dream of being curious what anyone apart from Boris Johnson thinks about anything.

 

[Pickman's model]

She's alright, for a politician. About 73 times better than the man whose constituency i live in now, who would never dream of being curious what anyone apart from Boris Johnson thinks about anything.

Alright for a politician is rubbish for anyone else

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I think what’s missing from your pessimistic post LBJ is any account of the propulsive forces that drove Brexit. A vote that faced down the largely unified position of the establishment. I’m don’t, by the way, disagree with the analysis you’ve offered of their likely thinking.

There wasn’t a homogeneous set of ideas and demands driving the vote. But there was a very significant demand and urge for change. What people meant by that was also diverse but again we can see some broadly shared ideas: better jobs, better pay, better housing and social facilities, hope for youth, the revival of dying towns and areas.

Those demands and impulses are not going away. Now Brexit is done people are going to want to see the promised change. That demand will only be sharpened as the latest economic crisis unfolds into 2021 and beyond. There is no fixity, that I can see, to Johnson or the Tories or to popular support for a further round of austerity. I do sense beneath the obvious responses to covid a deep and swelling anger building up that will intensify as furlough and so on tapers off.

Is this all going to be contested? Could we see a rise of a populist right formulation perceived to have the right ideas? Might we see the other side embed their ideas more deeply as a result?

The answer is of course ‘yes’ to all. But that’s why it’s called the struggle. It’s why we need to develop our ideas and a vision, and a strategy to go out and argue for our vision and win people to it.

 

[Mation]

What is this part of the BBC's headline summary of the deal likely to mean?

European Court of Justice

• The UK will no longer be bound by judgements made by the European Court of Justice, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.

What would that apply to where there might be a difference of opinion? (Genuine question. Happy to do some reading-up of my own, but would appreciate pointers.)

All of the rest of it seems like there'll be some additional (pointless, expensive) paperwork to agree things that would previously have been agreed automatically.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I think what’s missing from your pessimistic post LBJ is any account of the propulsive forces that drove Brexit. A vote that faced down the largely unified position of the establishment. I’m don’t, by the way, disagree with the analysis you’ve offered of their likely thinking.

There wasn’t a homogeneous set of ideas and demands driving the vote. But there was a very significant demand and urge for change. What people meant by that was also diverse but again we can see some broadly shared ideas: better jobs, better pay, better housing and social facilities, hope for youth, the revival of dying towns and areas.

Those demands and impulses are not going away. Now Brexit is done people are going to want to see the promised change. That demand will only be sharpened as the latest economic crisis unfolds into 2021 and beyond. There is no fixity, that I can see, to Johnson or the Tories or to popular support for a further round of austerity. I do sense beneath the obvious responses to covid a deep and swelling anger building up that will intensify as furlough and so on tapers off.

Is this all going to be contested? Could we see a rise of a populist right formulation perceived to have the right ideas? Might we see the other side embed their ideas more deeply as a result?

The answer is of course ‘yes’ to all. But that’s why it’s called the struggle. It’s why we need to develop our ideas and a vision, and a strategy to go out and argue for our vision and win people to it.

Snag is, the tories and their rich chums who own the press / run the BBC will continue to stir up resentment of what they present as the "elites" i.e. working class people who still have permanent and / or unionised jobs, remotely decent pay / conditions / pension schemes, secure social tenancies; trade unions, along with whatever minorities it's fashionable to scapegoat that week. They will argue that "fairness" means trashing the employment rights / pensions / secure tenancies etc of those people and dismiss any attempt to "equalise up" as "the politics of envy".

An increasing number of people outside the relatively few lines of work that still have strong trade unions and decent pay / conditions / pensions have been bullshitted into believing this, and see unions (and all that goes with it) as the problem not the solution, and will happily go along with austerity so long as there's people they see as 'lower down' who are getting an even bigger kicking.

Some trade unions / people within unionised lines of work don't seem to see this, and in some workplaces, the established union / union members tend to see agency / casualised workers as the problem / enemy, not the bosses who have brought them in.

I broadly agree with what you're saying, i'm just buggered if i know where that vision is going to come from or how it can be got across to people 'out there'

 

[ska invita]

I think the key point is that there is all to play for. There is no hegemony about what comes next.

Seems to me the hegemony is Tory Nationalism, with Starmers Labour following along in their slip stream

 

[Pickman's model]

Seems to me the hegemony is Tory Nationalism, with Starmers Labour following along in their slip stream

I think by hegemony he means agreement

 

[Pickman's model]

I think what’s missing from your pessimistic post LBJ is any account of the propulsive forces that drove Brexit. A vote that faced down the largely unified position of the establishment. I’m don’t, by the way, disagree with the analysis you’ve offered of their likely thinking.

There wasn’t a homogeneous set of ideas and demands driving the vote. But there was a very significant demand and urge for change. What people meant by that was also diverse but again we can see some broadly shared ideas: better jobs, better pay, better housing and social facilities, hope for youth, the revival of dying towns and areas.

Those demands and impulses are not going away. Now Brexit is done people are going to want to see the promised change. That demand will only be sharpened as the latest economic crisis unfolds into 2021 and beyond. There is no fixity, that I can see, to Johnson or the Tories or to popular support for a further round of austerity. I do sense beneath the obvious responses to covid a deep and swelling anger building up that will intensify as furlough and so on tapers off.

Is this all going to be contested? Could we see a rise of a populist right formulation perceived to have the right ideas? Might we see the other side embed their ideas more deeply as a result?

The answer is of course ‘yes’ to all. But that’s why it’s called the struggle. It’s why we need to develop our ideas and a vision, and a strategy to go out and argue for our vision and win people to it.

Yet lots of people have reported that leave voters felt any economic impact would be a price worth paying for 'sovereignty', which would run rather counter to the narrative you'd have us believe of a vote to leave being for a more prosperous future. I'm not an economist but you don't need to be to see that making trade with neighbouring countries more difficult isn't going to make the change you're talking about more likely. Instead some large employers eg car manufacturers have made noises about moving altogether.

I would love to see some evidence for your broadly shared ideas.

 

[brogdale]

I had seen this figure somewhere else, but here it is in print:


That looks potentially problematic.

 

[brogdale]

and this sounds a little bit inconvenient...

VAT and handling fees may also apply on some items, while parcels may be held up in post offices until all duties and fees have been cleared by the recipient in the UK.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Tens of millions speak Spanish, or Italian, or French or German or Polish.
I have not suggested making Flemish one of the so called 'working languages'.

No argument in this post

I think it would be great to have Flemish as a working language, not in the European Parliament but the House of Commons. We might at least understand what was going on in there.

 

[tommers]

and this sounds a little bit inconvenient...

That happens already with anything sent from anywhere else in the world.

 

[brogdale]

That happens already with anything sent from anywhere else in the world.

Yeah, but I suspect that a good chunk of most folk's overseas online purchasing is from EU member states?

 

[Pickman's model]

That happens already with anything sent from anywhere else in the world.

Good of the government to reveal it more than 50 months after the referendum

 

[TopCat]

Yeah, but I suspect that a good chunk of most folk's overseas online purchasing is from EU member states?

Not from China? Alibaba and Ali Express?

 

[Gramsci]

Long thread analysing deal.

TLDR - it’s a defensive deal which preserves both sides’ red lines but which doesn’t give as many positive opportunities as other FTAs.

Thanks for this. He does work for Tony Blair foundation now. But was in FCO and looking him up knows his stuff.

Few things. Financial services was dropped from talks. This will come later. That is real surprise as it is important part of UK economy. Apparently a memorandum of understanding next year.

Which from reading his twitter thread is another example that the agreement is just the start. This is not the end of Brexit. We can't say this divisive issue for the UK people is now finished. A whole new bureaucracy is going to be set up to administer this deal and future talks.

The nightmare will continue. I don't know how Starmer / Labour party are going to deal with this. I can understand Starmer wanting to end this and get MPs to vote for deal and then move on to isuses relevant to ordinary peoples lives but Brexit is not going to go away.

The deal is just the start.

There will be ability for both sides to erect tariffs if they feel hard done by. "Rebalancing"

ECJ wont apply in UK - good.

Northern Ireland appears to still be in EU to all intents and purposes from my reading of this. ( can anyone explain this? )

I dont know how that is going to work. It is being treated differently from rest of UK. Which I thought the Tories were dead against.

On "State subsidy" ie the government interfering in neo liberal free market looks like a fudge. EU can complain about "subsidy decisions" but not sure what this means in practise.

Impression I get of this deal is that a UK government can push the boundaries of the deal with EU and argue in the future.

Another reason why the deal is just the start.

So no Brexit is not finished.

Take State Aid. If a left Labour government comes to power it could still find that aiding / supporting industry may lead to dispute with EU.

Looks to me that labour/ environment protection needs to be aligned with EU regulations. But Tories could still have leeway to water it down imo.

Its a deal. Better than no deal. But the real discussion starts now.

Tories need an oppositio who will question how the deal is implemented. Not just go along with it.

 

[elbows]

I have started to skim some of the trade agreement documents.

The language is tedious but there is the odd nugget that somehow makes it worth my time.

DESIRING to make long‐term cooperative arrangements in the field of peaceful and non‐explosive uses of nuclear energy in a predictable and practical manner, which take into account the needs of their respective nuclear energy programmes and which facilitate trade, research and development and other cooperative activities between the United Kingdom and the Community;

From https://assets.publishing.service.g.../EU_UK_Civil_Nuclear_Agreement_24.12.2020.pdf

 

[Gramsci]

The new bureaucracy:

 

[two sheds]

Thanks for this. He does work for Tony Blair foundation now. But was in FCO and looking him up knows his stuff.

Few things. Financial services was dropped from talks. This will come later. That is real surprise as it is important part of UK economy. Apparently a memorandum of understanding next year.

Which from reading his twitter thread is another example that the agreement is just the start. This is not the end of Brexit. We can't say this divisive issue for the UK people is now finished. A whole new bureaucracy is going to be set up to administer this deal and future talks.

The nightmare will continue. I don't know how Starmer / Labour party are going to deal with this. I can understand Starmer wanting to end this and get MPs to vote for deal and then move on to isuses relevant to ordinary peoples lives but Brexit is not going to go away.

The deal is just the start.

There will be ability for both sides to erect tariffs if they feel hard done by. "Rebalancing"

ECJ wont apply in UK - good.

Northern Ireland appears to still be in EU to all intents and purposes from my reading of this. ( can anyone explain this? )

I dont know how that is going to work. It is being treated differently from rest of UK. Which I thought the Tories were dead against.

On "State subsidy" ie the government interfering in neo liberal free market looks like a fudge. EU can complain about "subsidy decisions" but not sure what this means in practise.

Impression I get of this deal is that a UK government can push the boundaries of the deal with EU and argue in the future.

Another reason why the deal is just the start.

So no Brexit is not finished.

Take State Aid. If a left Labour government comes to power it could still find that aiding / supporting industry may lead to dispute with EU.

Looks to me that labour/ environment protection needs to be aligned with EU regulations. But Tories could still have leeway to water it down imo.

Its a deal. Better than no deal. But the real discussion starts now.

Tories need an oppositio who will question how the deal is implemented. Not just go along with it.

oven ready

 

[Gramsci]

And Spisak reckons this deal is not as good as what Canada and Japan got

 

[Gramsci]

My old mp Helen Hayes (i mean from before i moved house) has sent a one question survey around, like this. I'm not even sure which I'd tick probably the second one, the most miserable / cowardly option of all.

View attachment 245831

I did not get this.

I agree Helen Hayes has turned out to be a good constituency MP. She is not on left of the party but she has taken up issues going against the Progress led Lambeth Council.

Opposing Hondo Towers and supporting Nour Cash and Carry against McWilliams property empire in Brixton being one.

Also as you know supporting the Grove Adventure playground in Loughborough junction against the Council who wanted to build on it.

 

[Gramsci]

oven ready

Kind of annoyed that Boris has got away with that, And saying at election he would get Brexit done. When he must have known it was not as simple as that.

 

[mx wcfc]

oven ready

Sorry, but don't you watch the news? The "oven ready deal" was the Withdrawal Agreement, not this deal. I heard Gove say so on the telly.

 

[mx wcfc]

Sorry, but don't you watch the news? The "oven ready deal" was the Withdrawal Agreement, not this deal. I heard Gove say so on the telly.

I definately remember it. I remember screaming "you lying, duplicitous bastard" at the telly, and then checking what "duplicitous" meant.

 

[two sheds]

I definately remember it. I remember screaming "you lying, duplicitous bastard" at the telly, and then checking what "duplicitous" meant.

Means "having two ovens"

 

[weltweit]

When the agreement was first mooted to be complete it was reported to have 2,000 pages, later it was reported to have 1,200 pages. What happened to the missing 800 pages is what I want to know!!

 

[Pickman's model]

When the agreement was first mooted to be complete it was reported to have 2,000 pages, later it was reported to have 1,200 pages. What happened to the missing 800 pages is what I want to know!!

They found they'd printed lots of it twice by mistake

 

[mx wcfc]

When the agreement was first mooted to be complete it was reported to have 2,000 pages, later it was reported to have 1,200 pages. What happened to the missing 800 pages is what I want to know!!

Sadly, my job involves understanding some parts of EU State aid regulations. I am back working tomorrow. Apart from 3 things I was meant to get done before xmas, I fear "figuring out what the fuck this means for my job" may also feature tomorrow.

In time honoured tradition, I am preparing for this by getting wankered tonight.

With a bit of luck, my bit will be in the missing 800 pages.

 

[mx wcfc]

They found they'd printed lots of it twice by mistake

Tell me you are joking. Please

 

[Pickman's model]

Tell me you are joking. Please

I wish I was.