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The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

For "the shops" read "the major supermarkets". Up in stokey there were people queuing for a Sainsbury's with loads of bare shelves literally in front of an independent Turkish supermarket which had a ton of bog roll and tomatoes and rice and pasta, I know cos I got some there. Throughout that sorry episode I found the independent shops far better stocked than the big names, and my parents relied on a small supermarket near them which was always able to keep them supplied. Tell you one thing, I won't be going near a Sainsbury's or Tesco's if there's a supply shock in the new year, I'll be going to the local independents I can rely on having full (or at least fuller) shelves

Yes, that's very true. I mainly shop at independents and I didn't notice shortages of anything except flour, and rice became difficult to get for a week or so, but that was it.
 
The covid empty shelves were only due to stupid panic buying though not to actual supply issues to do with it being 4 times more expensive to transport stuff to the Uk?
 
Yes, if there's an actual shortage of anything in the New Year, you can bet that what there is will be headed to Tesco's and not the Turkish mini-mart.
 
Where do you think kippers come from if not herring? Plenty of people eat herring in the UK.

They do, but in nowhere near the quantity the fleet can catch, and much the same is true of a lot of shellfish and - even more so - mackerel. Conversely, under no realistic fishing deal will they be able to take enough white fish to satisfy the British consumer, who's steadfastly refused to change their preferences no matter how much the price of cod goes up and however much effort is put into persuading them to try something else!
 
The covid empty shelves were only due to stupid panic buying though not to actual supply issues to do with it being 4 times more expensive to transport stuff to the Uk?

Well, exactly. The penny doesn't seem to have dropped with a lot of people that the queues to Dover and Calais are only the start of it, and at some point supply chains are going to be disrupted to the point where things become unavailable.
 
Well, exactly. The penny doesn't seem to have dropped with a lot of people that the queues to Dover and Calais are only the start of it, and at some point supply chains are going to be disrupted to the point where things become unavailable.
The queues right now are basically shops stocking up to avoid having empty shelves if no deal aren’t they. So it might still all be fine. Adequate Food , sunlit uplands etc.
 
What odds can I get on a last minute deal being signed? The more Boris, Gove et al. make gloomy public pronouncements on how unlikely a deal is looking, the more convinced I become that it’s definitely going to get agreed. Just on the simple logic that they can be relied upon 100% to be lying, each and every time they open their mouths.
Boris does what’s good for Boris. He has to get a deal, the delay is all performance, so he can show how hard he’s been on the EU. No deal and he’d exit via the trap door.
 
Boris does what’s good for Boris. He has to get a deal, the delay is all performance, so he can show how hard he’s been on the EU. No deal and he’d exit via the trap door.
I am not sure I share your analysis, Johnson might prefer a deal but he has made it quite clear that he considers Britain can still thrive on a no deal exit. Is he telling porkies, is he just stating a position for the sake of his negotiations? Perhaps, but I think there is some truth that if the deal doesn't live up to expectations he feels he can take his ball away in a sulk and got to WTO terms.
 
Doesn't Johnson think that team GB will be totally brilliant whatever deal or no deal? That being the case he can't make a mistake, can he? We Brits will seize success from the jaws of defeat, regardless of the actions of the nanny state. Whatever happens it will be the best possible outcome.
 
Well, exactly. The penny doesn't seem to have dropped with a lot of people that the queues to Dover and Calais are only the start of it, and at some point supply chains are going to be disrupted to the point where things become unavailable.

Supply chains are already disrupted. Not so much Dover-Calais but at the container ports like London Gateway and Felixstowe from where we get stuff like rice, beds, shirts and fairy lights. It began earlier this year when lock-downs prompted a global shortage of shipping containers and everything started being in the wrong place with not enough people to move or unload it. If a ship can't unload all it's containers in the allotted time it has to leave and the containers go on a mystery tour before they can finally be reallocated back to their destination country.
 
The queues right now are basically shops stocking up to avoid having empty shelves if no deal aren’t they. So it might still all be fine. Adequate Food , sunlit uplands etc.

Well, that and Christmas, and there are some other logistical issues atm with congestion at certain ports (Felixstowe, especially) and a shortage of containers, which can't be helping. Problem is, though, that even if a deal is done, HM Customs and other authorities will be relying on new and untested systems, inexperienced personnel and facilities that in some cases haven't even been built yet.
 
Supply chains are already disrupted. Not so much Dover-Calais but at the container ports like London Gateway and Felixstowe from where we get stuff like rice, beds, shirts and fairy lights. It began earlier this year when lock-downs prompted a global shortage of shipping containers and everything started being in the wrong place with not enough people to move or unload it. If a ship can't unload all it's containers in the allotted time it has to leave and the containers go on a mystery tour before they can finally be reallocated back to their destination country.

'Great' minds think alike - see post above. It's a bit of a perfect storm taking shape.
 
If that is already happening (some importers willing to pay 7,000 euro instead of 2,000 for a truck full of tomatoes to get here instead of not getting here at all) that’s bad. That’s adequate food only for people who can pay 3 times more for tomatoes.
 
I am not sure I share your analysis, Johnson might prefer a deal but he has made it quite clear that he considers Britain can still thrive on a no deal exit. Is he telling porkies, is he just stating a position for the sake of his negotiations? Perhaps, but I think there is some truth that if the deal doesn't live up to expectations he feels he can take his ball away in a sulk and got to WTO terms.

He can't just walk away from a deal because there aren't enough Tories that would accept that politically and all those swing voters would feel let down for a long time. His election promise was 'Get Brexit done.' He has to deliver, voters won't forgive him. Let's not forget that masses of issues had already been agreed and that things are setup to run relatively smoothly in '21 if a deal is signed.

I do hear myself echoing BJ with his 'Fuck Business' quote but with 'Fuck Fish,' :oops:
 
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