The 2024 General Election prediction thread - Who is the Urban 75 Ballot Box Nostradamus?

[Kaka Tim]

So seeing as no-one else has done it yet - lets have your GE predictions.
Share of vote, how few seats the virmin are left with - how many Refuk get - any other inividaul predictions (i.e Will Jezza prevail in Islington? Will Binface unseat Ratboy?)

Predicitions after 9.50pm on July 4th invalid they will be

 

[PR1Berske]

We'll need someone willing to log predictions on a spreadsheet.

 

[Kaka Tim]

So - i'll go first - Tories seem definitely en-route to an almighty tonking from the voters - but by just how much?
Some prediciton have them getting less than 100 seats and even coming behind the Lib Dems in seat numbers. I still think they wont do quite that badly and they have a residual base who will never vote labour and that some of the Refukers will return to the verminous fold cos fear of evil starmer. I dont think ReFuks polling is that impressive - Farage has had a huge amount of publicity and bumped up their ratings - but I suspect a "Cleggmania" situation where all the .. "excitement" fades come polling day.

Labour 41%
Tories 25%
ReFuk - 15%
Lib Dems - 11%
Greens - 5%

Tories to get around 125 seats.

Corbyn to win in Islington.

ETA - seems the poll I saw putting Farge at 32% in clacton was a typo - and its 52% facepalm - So on that basis - ReFUk - 3 seats.

Not making any predictions for scotland and norn iron as really dont have enough knowledge.

 

[kebabking]

Mine, so far...

Current wagers:

Labour will overturn a 20k majority in Wyre Forest and win the seat.

Lib Dems will get 60+ seats.

Tories will win less than 100 seats.

The Disgraced-Cunt-Führage will win in Clacton (don't like that one, but I think it's true nonetheless).

Corbyn will win Islington.

Greens will win Bristol and North Herefordshire.

Labour will hit 450 seats.

(I remain Urbans' worst political forecaster, so betting on an increased Tory majority is probably a safe way to store your money...)

 

[shifting gears]

Not predictions valid after 9.50pm on July 4th.

 

[Elpenor]

Too many variables to predict, I have thought for a while that tories will get around 120 seats which is what the poll tonight says I think, but percentages, majorities etc, individual contests hasn’t really caught my imagination

 

[kebabking]

Might put a cheeky fiver on Sunak losing his seat - but I think that binface entering the race will ensure he keeps it.

 

[emanymton]

I'm not going to put any numbers to it, but I have been saying for a while I don't think the tories will do as bad as many expect, and I stand by it. Although the expectations keep getting lower...

 

[Elpenor]

I'm not going to put any numbers to it, but I have been saying for a while I don't think the tories will do as bad as many expect, and I stand by it. Although the expectations keep getting lower...

Must admit my 120 prediction is the lowest I would go for, I do think a 140-150 result is not impossible too, and can’t help but think if you would add Tory and reform percentage together, the combined votes vs Labour would change the picture substantially.

Thats not going to happen but if half of that reform vote seeps back to Tory on election day then the number of Tory seats is a lot higher than current polls

 

[DotCommunist]

I think hollobone will retain the hollobinate, Rosie Wrighting is v good looking. That has no bearing on anything at all i was just struck by the contrast between her and fred west. Maybe she'll win, but I recon ole Phil has one more victory in him, even now with a tory wipe out on the cards nationally

 

[nottsgirl]

I predict Reform are going to do really really well and get a load of seats, because that’s what I’m afraid is really going to happen so at least if it does I get the kudos of being right here.

 

[MickiQ]

I think hollobone will retain the hollobinate, Rosie Wrighting is v good looking. That has no bearing on anything at all i was just struck by the contrast between her and fred west. Maybe she'll win, but I recon ole Phil has one more victory in him, even now with a tory wipe out on the cards nationally

I'd never heard of her so I've googled her, you're not kidding about her being attractive are you. Electoral calculus gives Labour a 67% chance of taking the seat.

My personal predictions are Labour 400-425 seats, the Tories 100-110, LibDems about 60, SNP to get 20 (if they're lucky) I'm hoping that the Greens will get a couple but I'm still not convinced. I reckon Corbyn, Farage and Galloway will all lose.
I would sooner be wrong about Corbyn than either of the others though

 

[Dom Traynor]

Would put money on Corbyn getting in, Labour chose possibly the worst candidate to run against him.

Would put money on Farage finally getting in, although equally wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't I just have a feeling this is his chance at last unless he really doesn't want it (which is likely) and therefore doesn't quite put the work in.

Would put money on Galloway not getting back in but I know nothing about the state of the local Labour party there.

Would put money on John Sweeny not getting in.

Would put money on the Tories getting more than 150 seats and would consider taking a gamble on them getting more than 175.

Would also put money on Libdems getting 50+

I do think Clacton is Reforms only chance at a seat and that we will see some Reform votes go back to the Tories and some stay at home but will be very patchy and localised based on how wingnut or high profile the local Tory is.

I also think Labour will win back fewer of the votes it's lost in the Redwall than the actually seats won might show.

 

[marty21]

Labour 380ish
Tories 175ish
Lib Dems 40ish
SNP 30ish
PC 4ish
Greens 2ish
Reform 2ish
Others the rest-ish

 

[tim]

A repeat of 1992 with the Tories defying the polls and getting a small majority. Starmer loses in Holborn but Corbyn wins North Islington and is welcomed back into the fold and declared leader

 

[Puddy_Tat]

multiple minor party coalition with count binface as PM

 

[chilango]

Labour: 412
Conservatives: 118
Lib Dems: 69
Reform: 3*
Greens: 3**
SNP: 20
Plaid: 4
Others: 3***
NI: 18

* Clacton, Boston & Segness, Ashfield.

** Bristol Central, North Herefordshire, Waveney Valley.

*** Islington North, Birmingham Ladywood, Rochdale.

 

[Kaka Tim]

need more vote share predictions please.

 

[SpookyFrank]

The only thing I really give a shit about at this point is Faiza Shaheen winning so give me a fiver on that.

 

[imposs1904]

Farage to win Clacton.

Farage to be leader of the Tory Party within 6 years . . . but only if he actually wants it.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Farage to be leader of the Tory Party within 6 years . . . but only if he actually wants it.

I don't think he does. He's a grifter and a gobshite, I doubt he has any interest in doing an actual job of work.

 

[chilango]

I don't think he does. He's a grifter and a gobshite, I doubt he has any interest in doing an actual job of work.

Boris Johnson says hi.

 

[kebabking]

I don't think he does. He's a grifter and a gobshite, I doubt he has any interest in doing an actual job of work.

Oh he'd take the job - first because it would appeal to his ego, and no other considerations would trump that, secondly because (again, ego) he thinks being LotO is just shouting, and being PM is just making decisions that others are too weak and woke to make, then pub..., and thirdly his ideology tells him that most of what a PM does simply doesn't need to , or shouldn't, be done.

Like Johnson, he'd be a part timer, and he'd just blame everyone else when the wheels came off - and he would genuinely not understand his role in the wheels coming off, because he thinks that him doing 2 hours a day was more than enough, given the political brilliance of his contribution.

 

[Dogsauce]

Oh he'd take the job - first because it would appeal to his ego, and no other considerations would trump that, secondly because (again, ego) he thinks being LotO is just shouting, and being PM is just making decisions that others are too weak and woke to make, then pub..., and thirdly his ideology tells him that most of what a PM does simply doesn't need to , or shouldn't, be done.

Like Johnson, he'd be a part timer, and he'd just blame everyone else when the wheels came off - and he would genuinely not understand his role in the wheels coming off, because he thinks that him doing 2 hours a day was more than enough, given the political brilliance of his contribution.

This all presumes that the Tories become the official opposition. An easier gig if they’re not, but probably not the status he wants.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

I think Labour will win, but by nothing like as much as predicted due to people not bothering to turn out as they think it’s a done deal.

Farage will win.

Reform will get 3-5 seats.


I hope I’m wrong about all of the above.

 

[PR1Berske]

I think Labour will win, but by nothing like as much as predicted due to people not bothering to turn out as they think it’s a done deal.

This is the biggest issue for Labour at the moment. Turnout dropped in 1997 because of this attitude, though the general three-parties (in England) culture back then didn't harm them in the marginals. Now the rise of Greens, Reform, various independents etc could eat into the Labour vote if people stay away.

 

[planetgeli]

I think Labour will win, but by nothing like as much as predicted due to people not bothering to turn out as they think Starmer is a wanker

Ftfy.

 

[skyscraper101]

I think Labour will win, but by nothing like as much as predicted due to people not bothering to turn out as they think it’s a done deal.

Possibly. There again, I think there's such an anti-Tory feeling right now that people will turn out simply to vote against them.

Put another way, this feels more like a 'vote them out' election compared to '97 when it felt more 'vote them in'. I agree though, I don't think the margin will be as big as predicted. The Lib Dems will do well out of this though.

 

[moochedit]

Ok i'll put my head on the block. You can laugh at my bollocks predictions later when i'm wrong

Labour win large majority (No hung parliament)
Tories lose shitloads of seats
Lib dems are not high in vote share terms but do well (for them) in seat number terms.
Farage wins. Reform do well (for them) in vote share terms but not in number of seats.
Corbyn wins.
Galloway gets a lot of votes but loses to labour.
Greens maybe 1 seat.
Snp lose a lot of seats to labour.

 

[Silas Loom]

I’m happy just to go with the Ipsos MRP from yesterday being right, because the methodology is way, way better than self-selecting panels or random outbound calling.