Hi
William of Walworth I’ll take your points in order.
Do you have at least some understanding of why it might seem totally counterintuitive to some of us lefties down here, that we're surely fated to live under a permanantly Tory majority for the indefinite election future, were Scotland to go their own way?
Yes, because you’ve been led to believe that Scotland hits bigger in parliamentary terms than it actually does. Perhaps you even think that our 59 MPs all count against a Tory majority. (That’s 59 out of 650, or 9.07%). But remember not all are Labour, at the moment 41 of them are. (So that’s 6.3%). Labour’s majority in 1997 was 179 (albeit before boundary changes). In 2001 it was 167.
Even in 2005, where Labour (in the wake of the 2003 Iraq War) scored the lowest majority of any majority government in British history, it still managed a majority of 66, greater than the total number of seats in Scotland. Even had all the Scottish seats been Labour (which they weren’t), Labour would still have had a majority even then. Do the sums for yourself, if you don’t believe me.
Of course there might be some time or other that 41 seats might make a difference. But it hasn’t been very often.
Counterintuitive : 70-ish MPs from Scotland, only one of which right now is Tory. Makes no difference to the rest-of-UK Westminster balance once they're gone? I laugh at that, and bitterly.
Not 70, it’s only 59.
I don't buy that Independence-favouring Scottish clergyman's blog -- he argues from post war General Election history that Scotland makes no GE difference. It would have done in 2010 however as even he acknowledged, and my main fear is for the current and future political climate.
Yes, the difference in 2010 would be that instead of a Lib-Dem/Tory Coalition (and remember Scottish Lib-Dem seats counted towards the Lib-Dem part of that Coalition) there would be a Tory majority. So, what exactly do you imagine the difference would have been? Do you think that Clegg or Vince Cable has been holding the Tories back at all?
For many Scots, the main fear is also “the current and future political climate”. And, putting it in electoral terms, our tiny %age of Labour seats in Westminster makes no difference if England returns a majority of Tory seats. Which it did for 18 long years.
(I know that this is down to FPTP and the fact that Westminster is won or lost in only a handful of swing marginals, but the fact remains: many people here feel powerless in terms of Westminster elections).
But I'm literally desparately hoping that more Scots than not vote for the unavailable, at least not officially, option -- Devo Max. Those utterly incompetent 'Better Together' wankers should concentrate on bigging up that IMO.
Better Together has a huge credibility problem in general. Not even people who intend to vote No (which is still a majority in the polls) believe a word they say. Whether on the NHS, on currency, or George Robertson’s intervention, they are simply not credible to anyone, even their own supporters.
So, remembering that, here are the facts: Alex Salmond and the SNP were well aware that “devo max” was the most popular option. They suggested that the Unionist camp draw up proposals on Devo Max, and have that scheme put on the referendum ballot paper, as part of a three way vote. Independence, devo max, or status quo.
The Unionist parties all declined. They had a chance to have it on the ballot paper, but said no. Everyone agrees it would have won, and polling continues to suggest it would have won.
Indeed, the Better Together team even commissioned a poll in the last few days asking the three option question, and devo max won. Yes, that’s right, the Better Together parties who declined to offer devo max in a three question referendum are still commissioning polls as if there were such an option.
Again proving their lack of credibility.
So, when the polls started to show the gap closing and the Unionist parties started to mutter about promising “something better” and “enhanced devolution”, even people who would prefer that are disinclined to trust the offers.
Many also remember Lord Home’s intervention in the 1979 referendum. On February 14th, the former PM, Sir Alec Douglas-Home (then Lord Home), appeared on TV to say that pro-devolution Scots should vote No to the Wilson/Callaghan scheme, as it was weak and flawed. A No vote would not kill off devolution; no, on the contrary, the Tories would ensure a better, stronger Act, with taxation powers and PR. So, you see, a No vote would deliver “something better”.
No such scheme ever emerged.
So when Brown appeared to talk about his proposals for “something better”, many said, why now? And, if you were so committed to “something better”, why didn’t you enact it when you were actually PM? How long was Labour in power? 13 years? If you felt so strongly about enhancing devolution, why didn’t you find the time to do something about it?
So yes, devo max is popular, but it isn’t on offer. And Better Together isn’t agreeing on what they’re offering if there is a No vote. And why should we believe them anyway?
Hope you understand
Well, in a way. But also, I hope you understand that this is a rare chance for us to do a number of things that aren’t otherwise do-able. We can get rid of WMD (Labour in Westminster doesn’t offer that). We can re-nationalise the Royal Mail (Labour doesn’t offer to re-nationalise, they only say the sale was botched). We can defend the Welfare State (Labour voted for the Tory Welfare Cap). We can defend the NHS (Labour has proven useless at doing this). We can make a stand against austerity ideology (Labour has promised to retain all the austerity measures if it is elected).
If you lived in Scotland, what would you do?