Origins of SarsCoV-2 virus, does it matter & why?

[l'Otters]

Catching up on mentions of the origin stories on the "General coronavirus chat" thread, I had a listen to an interview with Matt Ridley who's been saying the laboratory escape story should be explored as a possibility as well as the spillover from other species story.

When he talked about the ramifications of solving this mystery, comparing the steps we could take to stop such an event happening again - he described the measures which could be taken to mitigate against a repeat of either scenario: ie, stopping / tighter controls on gain of function studies of viruses in laboratories, OR cracking down on the trade of wild animals - what struck me was this: If both these scenarios are feasible enough to warrant investigation - why not do both? If these activities could realistically have led to this virus causing such chaos in the human population wouldn't it be a good idea to take measures to prevent either of them re-occuring? Do they need to be proven beyond a shred of doubt to have actually caused this pandemic for any action to be taken? (Leaving aside all the other factors which turned it into a pandemic...)

Here's the post which generated this avenue of thought: General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat

(When I watched the short film about exploring bat caves all I could think of was, just leave the bats to do their thing!)

 

[cupid_stunt]

I've always thought that a lab escape was the possible origin, but if it was, China will have erased or hidden any evidence, so I doubt we will ever find out.

ETA - That doesn't mean I think it was man-made or released as part of some master plan.

 

[Supine]

I’m 99.9% sure the crossover to humans will never be known. There is the 0.1% chance that a smoking gun could be released about lab escape.

I suspect this conversation will go on for many years.

 

[weltweit]

It matters because we need to know how this pandemic started so we are able to take actions to be sure it does not happen again.

WHO has stated that it wants to know patient Zero, and that it will continue to research this. Enough people have died, and more will die before hopefully it is brought under control. We need to know.

If it turns out the wet market was to blame, we know what action is required and China and other nations that have such markets will be under pressure to cease this practice.

If it turns out a leak from a lab is to blame then there will be greater controls on labs doing such work, and perhaps a ban on some kinds of work internationally.

Either way, countries are going to be asking questions as to how it was able so easily to spread around the world and what steps they could have taken to prevent this, and to prevent it in future. We all (well most of us) started with little knowledge and made many mistakes, a lot of learning is required or we risk doing it again in the event of a new virus.

Could we both protect against a lab leak and a wet market? is a good question, yes probably we could, but I think inquiring minds want to know the cause, I certainly want to know.

 

[bimble]

I really don’t think we (the world) will learn anything useful tbh that will help with the next global pandemic.
People will continue to fly around the planet on a whim, we will all continue to be ever more urbanised and interdependent and unequal and that’s the real cause, I think, not a pangolin or whatever.

 

[bmd]

I’m 99.9% sure the crossover to humans will never be known. There is the 0.1% chance that a smoking gun could be released about lab escape.

I suspect this conversation will go on for many years.

Yes but why will it go on for years? I thought that this theory had been dismantled, no?

 

[l'Otters]

Why wait though? Why not take action on wet markets and laboratories ASAP?

It matters because we need to know how this pandemic started so we are able to take actions to be sure it does not happen again.

WHO has stated that it wants to know patient Zero, and that it will continue to research this. Enough people have died, and more will die before hopefully it is brought under control. We need to know.

If it turns out the wet market was to blame, we know what action is required and China and other nations that have such markets will be under pressure to cease this practice.

If it turns out a leak from a lab is to blame then there will be greater controls on labs doing such work, and perhaps a ban on some kinds of work internationally.

Either way, countries are going to be asking questions as to how it was able so easily to spread around the world and what steps they could have taken to prevent this, and to prevent it in future. We all (well most of us) started with little knowledge and made many mistakes, a lot of learning is required or we risk doing it again in the event of a new virus.

Could we both protect against a lab leak and a wet market? is a good question, yes probably we could, but I think inquiring minds want to know the cause, I certainly want to know.

 

[l'Otters]

I really don’t think we (the world) will learn anything useful tbh that will help with the next global pandemic.
People will continue to fly around the planet on a whim, we will all continue to be ever more urbanised and interdependent and unequal and that’s the real cause, I think, not a pangolin or whatever.

Yes, this is part of what I meant when I referred to "leaving aside all the other factors which turned it into a pandemic"... which aren't about the origin, the origin is but one part of the picture.

My thoughts, for what they're worth, are that we should act as though either of the two main competing origin stories are correct and take action accordingly, then move on to looking at what led to it going global.

(But given what we know about climate change and the rate of action which is happening about that, there's probably not much hope of that avenue of action getting anywhere fast. I'd like to be less pessimistic & defeatist about this.)

 

[Yossarian]

Looking into the lab leak theory might persuade more countries that the CCP regime is a menace to the rest of the world and other countries should at the very least stop doing business with it - although the initial coverup of the Wuhan outbreak should have been persuasion enough.

 

[bimble]

Looking into the lab leak theory might persuade more countries that the CCP regime is a menace to the rest of the world and other countries should at the very least stop doing business with it - although the initial coverup of the Wuhan outbreak should have been persuasion enough.

i can't even imagine a world where other countries refuse to do business with china, what that world would even look like.

 

[elbows]

Why wait though? Why not take action on wet markets and laboratories ASAP?

There are probably a large number of animal-human areas which need reform, including the destruction of habitats and so many other things, so many industries etc.

As for the lab stuff, its always going to be a complex issue that involves all sorts of aspects of lab security, what sort of researh is deemed too risky, and weighing the balance between the ability of research to do a lot of good or have accidents and cause unintended harm.

Some of these will get tackled slowly, others will probably remain a risk.

 

[weltweit]

Why wait though? Why not take action on wet markets and laboratories ASAP?

Indeed, why wait? I expect action has been taken, don't you think?

 

[Pickman's model]

Looking into the lab leak theory might persuade more countries that the CCP regime is a menace to the rest of the world and other countries should at the very least stop doing business with it - although the initial coverup of the Wuhan outbreak should have been persuasion enough.

if the road and belt initiative hasn't done that, if their belligerent moves in the south china sea haven't done that, if their land-grabs on the border with india haven't done that and if their treatment of the uighurs hasn't done that (not to mention eg their theft of a fuckton of us nuclear secrets) then it's a bit much to suppose that the lab leak thing might tip people's minds as you'd desire.


page ii of the cox report https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CRPT-105hrpt851/pdf/GPO-CRPT-105hrpt851.pdf

 

[gentlegreen]

A relative commented the other day in passing that Covid was "China's fault".
My response was that Spanish flu may well have started in the USA, swine flu ln Mexico and HIV in Africa and that the wind generally blows west to east..
Also there has been minor speculation about the harvesting of bat guano for gourmet cannabis cultivation ...

But gain of function research properly freaks me out...

 

[Supine]

Yes but why will it go on for years? I thought that this theory had been dismantled, no?

what theory dismantled? I just said there are different theories and I don’t think a definitive answer is possible.

question: how would anyone know who patient zero is? It’s not possible to trace people back well enough to find out. IMHO.

 

[bmd]

what theory dismantled? I just said there are different theories and I don’t think a definitive answer is possible.

question: how would anyone know who patient zero is? It’s not possible to trace people back well enough to find out. IMHO.

The Guardian podcast on Wuhan lab leak theory.

Scientific American article on the bat lady's research. V good (imo, obv).

Here's more about the origin theory debate.

Quite interesting too.

 

[weltweit]

..
question: how would anyone know who patient zero is? It’s not possible to trace people back well enough to find out. IMHO.

Depends on how good / untampered with hospital records are I would have thought.

Anyone in Wuhan dying of respiratory complications in December 2019 or earlier I would have thought could be investigated.

 

[elbows]

Depends on how good / untampered with hospital records are I would have thought.

Anyone in Wuhan dying of respiratory complications in December 2019 or earlier I would have thought could be investigated.

The idea that patient zero would have required hospitalisation is too narrow. Which also means I shouldnt use the word patient really.

If the infection came without a lab accident then there isnt much chance of finding patient zero. If it started because lab workers caught it and got sick then there is a bit more chance.

 

[elbows]

In other words the first person to catch it could easily have been asymptomatic or have had a very mild illness that didnt stand out.

Just look at how long it takes to spot outbreaks in general - it doesnt tend to happen unless proper diagnostics are routine, or the condition has unusual symptoms, or until a large enough number of people have caught it that an unusual number of people present themselves to hospital.

 

[Yossarian]

The Guardian podcast on Wuhan lab leak theory.

Scientific American article on the bat lady's research. V good (imo, obv).

Here's more about the origin theory debate.

Quite interesting too.

This is long but worth the read.

The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan?

If the case that SARS2 originated in a lab is so substantial, why isn’t this more widely known? As is now obvious, there are many people who have reason not to talk about it.

thebulletin.org

 

[frogwoman]

Trying unsuccessfully to convince my mum it didn't come from a lab, I don't think she's going to listen to a 2 hour twiv episode on the topic

 

[bmd]

Trying unsuccessfully to convince my mum it didn't come from a lab, I don't think she's going to listen to a 2 hour twiv episode on the topic

Put your glasses on, pull up a desk and give her a quick breakdown.

"In your news today, Chinese people everywhere are as puzzled as everyone else about how Covid came about."

 

[gentlegreen]

In recent days I have started fearing for the fate of bats in the wild - certainly in the tropics ...
Their biology seems uniquely suitable for the culturing and propagation of viruses.

 

[frogwoman]

Why has this lab leak theory taken off so comprehensively? Seems pretty clear that it came from bats tbh

 

[platinumsage]

I almost agree with Raab here. Given the known circumstances, I’d say there was a 60% chance it accidentally leaked from a lab (either from a sample collected in the field elsewhere in China, or less likely a virus that was modified in the lab). It’s definitely balance of probabilities stuff rather than something that people need to be convinced about either way.

 

[platinumsage]

Why has this lab leak theory taken off so comprehensively? Seems pretty clear that it came from bats tbh

The lab leak theory includes the possibility it came from samples collected from bats that leaked from a lab. Wuhan isn’t renowned for corona-harbouring bats, such that researchers have to travel to other provinces of China to collect samples.

Wuhan is however renowned for coronavirus research labs, having two within three miles of the seafood market.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Why has this lab leak theory taken off so comprehensively? Seems pretty clear that it came from bats tbh

Originally from bats, doesn't rule out a lab escape, so it's still possible.

The reason it's taken off recently seems to be based on reports that several Wuhan lab researchers became sick in the autumn of 2019 with symptoms similar to covid, and that at least three ended-up in hospital, basically just before it started taking off in Wuhan.

And, there's been outbreaks of the original SARS traced back to labs on a few occasions, so they have have a record on coronavirus lab escapes.

China is on high alert following a fresh outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The index case is a 26 year old female laboratory researcher from Anhui province who worked for two weeks at the Chinese National Institute of Virology in Beijing, which is known to be investigating the SARS coronavirus.

The researcher, who developed symptoms of SARS on 25 March, subsequently infected her mother, who died, and a 20 year old nurse in a Beijing hospital where she was being treated. In turn the nurse is suspected of having infected her mother, father, aunt, and a fellow patient. A 31 year old laboratory researcher who also worked at the virology research laboratory is also suspected of having been infected. Almost 1000 people are in quarantine or under close medical supervision.

Chinese authorities on alert as SARS breaks out again

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[CNT36]

One reason to investigate could be to find out if the source of the outbreak is something unexpected. It happened with Ebola recently. Although the phylogenetic evidence points to an obvious answer.

 

[LDC]

Posted this on the international thread but actually more relevant here. This talk discusses the link between ecological and habitat destruction and fragmentation, and the emergence of pandemics, so talks about that rather than the lableak possbility, but very good listening as a primer on zoonotic diseases.

Planetary Health: approaches to zoonotic spillover, indigenous health, and rainforest conservation

<p>As industrial civilization assaults the worlds remaining rainforests the health and cultural diversity of indigenous peoples is threat...

media.ccc.de

"As industrial civilization assaults the worlds remaining rainforests the health and cultural diversity of indigenous peoples is threatened along with much of the biodiversity of the planet. In turn these human changes to ecosystems, combined with vast expansion of domestic animal populations, cause spillover of zoonotic diseases which threaten the health of people worldwide. As with HIV and Ebola, every death from COVID-19 is an environmental effect."

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Guess we'll never know for sure, what with the CCP being like they are, but it is a bit bloody suspect to have these virus labs in Wuhan, it's not like every city has a couple of the things, they are incredibly rare and it just happens that the virus was first floating around right next to these labs.