Nicaraguan Elections: Daniel Ortega - President Again?

[JHE]

It's too early to tell - and we might not know for sure for a couple of days. (Fuck knows why the votes in some areas are counted so much more quickly than in other areas.)

But with about 15% of the votes counted, it's looking good for the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN). Its candidate, Ortega, has just over 40% of the vote and his most popular opponent has just over 33% of the vote. If Ortega gets 35% or more and has a five percentage point lead over the next candidate, he becomes president. If not, there will be a second round to the election, which I think the FSLN would probably not win.


Perhaps prematurely, the Sandinistas have already got the fireworks out (and not just on their website): http://www.fsln-nicaragua.com/

Ageing supporters of the Nicaragua Solidarity Campaign, feel free to get your faded old Sandinista t-shirts out.



Any thoughts, anyone?

* Excellent news if there's a Sandinista govt?
* Ortega's a sell-out - he'll make little difference?
* Bad news - the Nicaraguans should have voted as Uncle Sam told them?
* Disastrous news - if Ortega wins, your wealthy Nicaraguan friends and relatives will move to the US?

 

[Idris2002]

I think there could be grounds for cautious optimism if the FSLN win.

However, the whole business of the rape allegations against Ortega left a bad taste in the mouth.

It was the fact that he hid behind parliamentary immunity which made me suspect who was a wrong'un.

 

[Dubversion]

aren't there a lot of financial irregularities and dodgy alliances as well?

 

[chegrimandi]

women: don't get your fireworks out...

'Nicaragua last night voted to outlaw all forms of abortion, including operations to save a pregnant woman's life, after a campaign by the Catholic church.

The main political parties supported a bill establishing jail sentences of six to 30 years for women who terminate their pregnancies and doctors who perform the procedure.

The proposal was fast-tracked through parliament in the run-up to a presidential election next month, prompting accusations that it was an opportunistic vote-grabbing ploy.'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1932576,00.html

chalk one up for the catholics.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

aren't there a lot of financial irregularities and dodgy alliances as well?

yeah - there was quite an interesting article in yesterdays Observer about it all:

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/review/story/0,,1939494,00.html

 

[TopCat]

I never did that Ortega worship. I used to get the arse with trendy lefties who wore sandinista t shirts at the same time as sticking their head in the sand regarding an armed struggle happening just over the Irish sea.

 

[JHE]

aren't there a lot of financial irregularities and dodgy alliances as well?

Dunno about the financial stuff, but Ortega's fellow candidate - the one standing for the vice-presidency - is an ex-Contra. I suppose you could call that 'dodgy'. (I don't know enough about it to judge.)

 

[Idris2002]

yeah - there was quite an interesting article in yesterdays Observer about it all:

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/review/story/0,,1939494,00.html

There were some interesting things in that article - but overall it was the umpteenth in a long line of 'I was leftwing when I was young but I've grown out of it, I'll be a good boy now daddy' rubbish.

And I got sick to my back teeth of that stuff long ago.

Anyone know what the current state of Nicaragua's peasants is? Are any of the coops left? Was much, if any of the land handed back to the landlords after Chamorro came to power in 1990?

 

[lostexpectation]

this sorta came out ot the blue, apparently he's found god, it doens't seem like the wolrd is kicking up that much of a fuss so he must have some friends in high places?

oh I see he never went away he always nearly won but the oppostion is divided this time so, maybe it will be okay.

flipping hell that's conveniant, "His toughest opponent, Herty Lewites, the popular former mayor of Managua, died of a heart attack in July. Since then all opinion polls show Ortega as the frontrunner."

so who is this ex-contra guy? so nicaruaga have singed up to cafta but who hasn't venezuala?

 

[treelover]

Anyone seen todays Guardian?, its really a rather biased and nasty report, it looks like it could haver come from the economist or a RW US newspaper, etc.
has a sub looked at it?

read this bit for example, only 'accused' of a brutal war of imtimidation!,

Mr Ortega then lost in 1990 to Violeta Chamorro, who headed a multiparty alliance drawn from opposite ends of the political spectrum. Mr Ortega's popularity was damaged by the US-backed Contra guerrilla movement, which was accused of waging of a brutal campaign of intimidation. His next two presidential attempts, in 1996 and 2001, were also failures.

and

Mr Ortega has received support from thousands of emigrants who returned to vote. Many still have bitter memories of the Sandinistas' decade in power, though Mr Ortega has repeatedly said he has changed, recasting himself as a reconciler. His vice-presidential candidate, Jaime Morales, was once one of his biggest enemies, serving as the spokesman for the Contras.

At stake is millions of dollars in potential investment, much of it from foreign companies drawn to Nicaragua by the country's cheap labour, low crime rates and decision to join the new Central American Free Trade Agreement. Many are waiting to see if Mr Ortega wins and stays true to promises to continue free-trade policies.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1940848,00.html

 

[JHE]

Apparently, Ortega has won, though it's not official yet.

Independent Group Says Ortega Won

Managua, Nov 6 (Prensa Latina) Nicaragua s independent organization "Etica y Transparencia" has granted the electoral win in the first round to Sandinista candidate Daniel Ortega, based on results of a quick counting held parallel to the official one.

The organization, which yesterday positioned 13,000 electoral observers at polling sites nationwide, affirmed today Ortega had 38.49 percent of votes, thus guaranteeing his victory in the first round.

The candidate of the ALN (Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance), Eduardo Montealegre, was second with 29.52 percent, and Jose Rizo, from the PLC (Liberal Constitutionalist Party) was third, with 24.15 percent.

The spokesman of "Etica y Transparencia," Pablo Ayon, commented they understand some candidates may have doubts, but their results will not be affected by irregularities.​

From Prensa Latina

 

[Idris2002]

Anyone seen todays Guardian?, its really a rather biased and nasty report, it looks like it could haver come from the economist or a RW US newspaper, etc.

People shouldn't be surprised by that. The Guraniad's been returning to its 19th century Manchester liberal roots for years now.

 

[Pendejo]

'Vote FSLN with no illusions?´

According to the latest count, FSLN 38% ALC 30% PLC22% MRS 7%. 40% of the vote, mostly from rural areas, still needs counting. Expect a verdict early Tuesday morning. The winner needs to either clear 40% or, if he pulls between 35 and 40%, needs a 5% gap over his nearest rival. But all tendencies point to Ortega and the FSLN in the first round. If it goes to a second round, the anti-Daniel forces will unite, probably behind Montealegre, a former banker and the State Department's favourite since they fell out with the PLC.

Word on the calles is that Daniel's won. The public celebration´s planned for tomorrow. There's a genuine excitement here, and also genuine fear from the tiny middle-class and the foreign investors. But 80% of the country lives in poverty and after 16 years of neo-liberalism, the feeling seems to be 'Fuck it - why not go back to the Sandinistas? It can't get any worse, and at least we´ll feel good for a while about voting with balls'

I'm gonna enjoy some thumb-nosing and flag-waving then settle back into very cautious optimism. Very hard to know what Daniel has planned. According to an Italian economist who's been down here since the 80s, 'the FSLN have absolutely no economic strategy´. This has been an unbelievably vague election. Daniel's campaigned on a sludgy slogan of 'Peace and Reconciliation´. That's why he has a former Contra leader as his VP. It's all an attempt to show that he's moved on, that he doesn't bear grudges, that he won't be sharpening the long knives. It´s also an attempt to undermine the right-wing campaign which always associates Daniel with hardship, conscription and an unwinnable war.

The Right (known as the Liberals in Nicaragua) have also been low on practicalities, spending most of their time arguing amongst themselves. Which according to some, was all part of the plan, El Pacto, a deal struck between disgraced former PLC President Aleman and Ortega. According to the cynics, Aleman promised to split the right vote and hand Ortega a victory if Ortega would over-turn his jail time and let him keep whatever's left of the rumoured $200 million (not a misprint) Aleman stole from the Hurricane Mitch fund. The Abortion Bill was apparently part of another pact, one that brought the Archbishops and the Catholic vote across to the FSLN. Has Daniel found God? I'm not convinced, though his wife and campaign manager is very Catholic. Was Hertie Lewites murdered? Absolutely not.

Politics in Nicaragua is a dirty business, but it's never dull. Daniel has a an opportunity to do something exciting here, separate Nicaragua from slave-status within CAFTA´s maquilladores and zona francas, and take advantage of historical changes in South America. But he´s also got a lot of responsibility - if he fucks this up, the progressive left in Nicaragua will be finished.

EDIT - Numbers at the top edited because I'd er written them down wrong

 

[treelover]

don't want to derail the thread, but in the paper maybe, but the new blogging forum: comment is free is great and allows quite a wide range of opinions, though i wonder if that would stretch to someone like Ian bone of class war notoriety.

People shouldn't be surprised by that. The Guraniad's been returning to its 19th century Manchester liberal roots for years now.

 

[Udo Erasmus]

Ortega has gone along the Lula route. Once mildly radical, now saying that big business and international capital have nothing to fear. Mike Gonzalez (of the SWP) wrote some good stuff about the limitations of the original Sandinistas reforms that despite heralding their achievements in overthrowing a dictatorship wasn't afraid to criticise the revolution and pointed out that they weren't dismantling capitalism in Nicaragua and also noted then the way the Sandinistas sought to limit self-activity of the poor and workers.

Many leading Sandinista's left the movement years ago disillusioned. Ernest Cardenal, catholic-priest-poet and liberation theologian, left denouncing Ortega's leadership style as stalinist.

However, the victory of Ortega may still represent a broad trend in Latin American politics of leftists (of varying degrees of leftishness) getting elected. Lula, Morales, Chavez, the mexican stalemate etc. I heard Tariq Ali being interviewed about his new book "The Pirates of the Carribean: The axis of hope" about the new Latin American left where he argued that a polarisation is developing in Latin America between the rise of a radical left and those who support the washington consensus.

 

[teqniq]

chalk one up for the catholics.

Fuck the catholic church. They've got a lot to answer for as far as I'm concerned - the AIDS problem in africa springs to mind and now this.

 

[Balbi]

he won

 

[Pendejo]

nos venceremos

He won. We won. Final result FSLN 38% ALN 29% PLC 25% MRS 7% after 91% of the vote collected. Montealegre conceded defeat at 6.15pm local time.

Yes, Daniel's tainted. But I challenge any fucker with a red-stained heart to be on the streets with tens of thousands (and tomorrow will be hundreds of thousands) of working class people chock full of enthusiasm and idependence, and not get a wee bit teary and proud. Strike another one up to La Resistencia.

Next week I'll be sober. But right now, I'm drunk and fucking delighted. Vive Daniel, Vive Sandino, Vive Fonseca y Vive Nicaragua Libre!

 

[Pendejo]

fuck the swp

PS 'Mike Gonzalez (of the SWP) wrote some good stuff about the limitations of the original Sandinistas reforms that despite heralding their achievements in overthrowing a dictatorship wasn't afraid to criticise the revolution and pointed out that they weren't dismantling capitalism in Nicaragua and also noted then the way the Sandinistas sought to limit self-activity of the poor and workers.'

Really? And what the fuck has Mike Gonzalez ever done? How many revolutions has Mike Gonzalez ever won? How many Somozista jail cells has Mike ever pissed himself in? Limiting self-activity of the poor? Ignoring the fact that 'self-activity' is't a real word (you thick Trot cunt), how do you and your chum Gonzales explain the Sandinistas' literacy progarm, which is still unmatched anywhere in the Latin world?

And 'didn't dismantle capitalism'? The Frente nationalised all industry and co-operatised all the farms. Yes, this was a disaster, cause the farm reforms were led by well-meaning know-nothings from the inner cities, but how is this not 'dismantling capitalism'?

This shit annoys me. The people of Nicaragua are sticking their vulnerable necks out again. Is it really the job of the bourgois British Left to pick their nits?

PPS Teqniq - despite its faults, the Catholic Church did not invent the AIDS problem in Africa.

 

[Balbi]

Pendejo, how important is the fact that the Republicans in the U.S just lost their rubberstamp for policy for Ortega? I would think that the political gridlock that's going to ramp up, moreso if Democrats win the senate, might aid Ortega in getting on with things.

The Monroe Doctrine's getting a kicking right now innit.



Congratulations by the way. Viva Ortega.

 

[Jessiedog]

This is definately a bad day for the bushbots.



Woof

 

[JoePolitix]

Really? And what the fuck has Mike Gonzalez ever done? How many revolutions has Mike Gonzalez ever won?

Good questions. Gonzalez is the SWP "expert" on Latin America, despite the fact that he knows fuck all about Latin American politics or history. To be honest its people like him that bring the British Left into disrepute.

Its always the same story with a Gonzalez piece: Denounce the leadership of the left as reformists and sell outs, demand expropriations against capital and the "independent" organisation of the working class at every juncture: no sense of tactics displaced, no sense of when to advance, when to pause, when to sound out the enemy's willingness to compromise, when to form alliances and so on – just toy soldier "Marxism".

And then there’s the hypocrisy, Gonzalez should take a look closer to home when it comes to backtracking on principles as his own tendency in Scotland has just been trying to get the Solidarity movement they are part of to ditch the word "socialist" from its title to broaden its support!

What next, does Udo have the chutzpah to denounce Ortega's anti-abortion stance and yet ignore Galloway's far from glorious record in this area?

Congratulations to Nicaragua!

 

[Udo Erasmus]

Having heard Gonzalez speak on the same platform as a former minister in Chavez's governement and make clear his unconditional but critical support for the revolutionary process in Venezuela, I would argue that his take on things is far more nuanced than presented above. Indeed, he knows a lot about Latin American history and culture and has travelled and lived in the region, he is the editor of the Penguin Book of Latin American poetry. It is possible that Gonzalez occasionally is too critical, but when the rest of the left are totally uncritical and rushing around from one leftist shrine to the next looking for a socialist saviour it pays off. It's Castro yesterday, the Sandinistas today, Chavez tomorrow. When these movements fail to deliver or run into difficulties, the uncritical left are disorientated.

But Pendejo and JoePolitix are talking crap. So we in the UK are not allowed to criticise any political movement outside of Britain, instead we have to suspend all critical judgement and adopt an almost religious policy of adoration?

Nicaragua has progressive achievements, the Labour Party has progressive achievements, hell many places and governments have done things that are not progressive. Cuba has an excellent literacy programme - it is also a dictatorship with less civil liberties than Britain. But nobody would say that we have no right to criticise Old Labour?

Vive Ortega? But this is not the same Ortega who helped overthrow Somoza in the 90s, he has quite different politics now. This is an Ortega who is keen to ingratiate himself to international capital, big business & the United States.

This is an Ortega who leads a party that is further away from the original Sandinistas than New Labour is from Old Labour. Many leading figures have left the Sandinistas and denounced Ortega. Indeed, the original desertion of popular support from the Sandinistas cannot be solely pinned on the brutal interference of the United States, the Sandinistas were far from perfect.

The overarching problem with Ortega is not that he got religion necesarily - afterall their are many sincere revolutionaries in Latin America who are catholic, it is that he is quite clear that he is no longer a socialist.

 

[teqniq]

PPS Teqniq - despite its faults, the Catholic Church did not invent the AIDS problem in Africa.

I am well aware of this. They have however greatly exacerbated the problem by insisting that you can't be a true follower of the christian faith and have sex with a condom. It can be argued that this has led to many deaths and suffering due to AIDS, particularly in africa. In case you haven't guessed for this reason amongst others I have no time for them whatsoever.

This aside, I'm pleased that Ortega's won, tainted or otherwise.

 

[JoePolitix]

Vive Ortega? But this is not the same Ortega who helped overthrow Somoza in the 90s, he has quite different politics now. This is an Ortega who is keen to ingratiate himself to international capital, big business & the United States.

No, it’s not the same Ortega that overthrew the Somoza dynasty in the 90s but it is the same Ortega that overthrew the Somoza dynasty in the late 70s! (that’s the sort of thing that happens when you read too much Gonzalez).

If Orgeta is trying to ingratiate himself to the United States then he’s not doing a terribly good job. The current chief objective of American foreign policy in Latin America is to isolate Chavez diplomatically and the election of Ortega brings them one stage further from that goal.

At a Cuban summit meeting with Chavez, Morales and Castro Ortega declared that "Without a doubt we have to look towards the south, we have to look towards integration, and ALBA (the leftwing trade agreement opposed to the FTAA) is an open door, it is Latin American and Caribbean integration."

He also stated "Central America's trading future lies not with the U.S. but with Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina" and that he will “end savage capitalism when we win." In this much Orgeta's election of a major blow for the yanks.

It’s one thing to state that Orgeta is only a pale shadow of his former revolutionary self, but its another thing to try and explain this. Is it purely because he’s treacherous reformist or are there other factors at work like the impact of a decade of violent civil war and a series of electoral defeats? Realistically Orgeta just isn’t in a position to be another Chavez: Nicaragua is desperately poor and foreign investment and aid accounts for 35% of its budget. The US has tens of wholly or partially owned subsidiaries across the country and the rightwing Liberals are set to win a fair few seats in the forthcoming National Assembly elections.

There’s a lot at stake in Nicaragua and the objective conditions do not bode well for a radical agenda. The election of Orgeta nonetheless should be seen as a victory against the worst excesses of neo-liberalism and against Washington’s hegemonic designs for Latin America.

 

[colacho]

Gonzalez is the SWP "expert" on Latin America, despite the fact that he knows fuck all about Latin American politics or history. To be honest its people like him that bring the British Left into disrepute.

Wassup, Joe? While I'm no fan of Mike's it's a bit childish to say he knows "fuck all" about Latin American politics or history. He HAS spent a long time studying the area, even if he consistently gets it wrong. So he's a Swappy clone, well, even they get things right some of the time...

Congratulations to Nicaragua? The carping and sniping in the liberal press is certainly disgusting. It's like, "Ooh, we liked Ortega when he was the marxist revolutionary leader but now he's a sell out" -- bunch of fucking hypocrites if you look at the feeble, "balanced" way they dealt with the whole Sandinista phenomenon at the time.

But Ortega is a scum bag and so's his poncey fucking wife Rosario Murillo. A vomit inducing woman, a member of the elite with a romantic attachment to left causes, a bit like suddenly being saddled with Isabel Allende as "first lady". Gag, puke, hurl.

If only Nicaraguans had a better option than this turd. But if it pisses off the US it HAS to be a good thing...

 

[JHE]

If only Nicaraguans had a better option than this turd.

The Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) put up a candidate (Edmundo Jarquín) for the presidency, but he got only 6.3% of the vote.

In the other elections held at the same time, including parliamentary elections, the MRS did a bit better, getting more than 8% - far far below the Ortega-led Sandinistas' 38%.

But if it pisses off the US it HAS to be a good thing...

I think a lot Nicaraguans voted Sandinista hoping for a bit more than a pissed off Uncle Sam.

 

[JoePolitix]

One cannot understand the significance or nature of the Ortega victory without acknowledging the extreme pressures faced by this small and impoverished nation:

The Bush administration warned that an Ortega victory could bring aid cuts and trade sanctions, while Congressional Republicans said that they would pass legislation prohibiting Nicaraguans living in the U.S. from sending money home. Nicaragua is the hemisphere's second poorest country, and very heavily dependent on foreign aid and remittances; and such retaliation, if enacted, would be ruinous.

That Washington reserves this kind of intimidation only for small and powerless nations like Nicaragua as opposed to a country like Mexico, where it was careful not to intervene in last summer's election, only serves to reinforce the opinion of many Latin Americans that the U.S. is a bully.

Nicaraguans, having suffered multiple U.S. interventions throughout the twentieth century, are used to such threats. George H.W. Bush let it be known that if Ortega were to win the 1990 election, the Contra War would resume. In every vote since then, Washington has leaned on Nicaragua to keep the Sandinistas out of office.

So why didn't such heavy-handedness work this time? The White House and its allies blame Chavez for interfering in the country's electoral process. Yet compared to the U.S.'s domination of the country's economy, Venezuela's influence in Nicaragua is negligible. The simple fact is that Ortega is the single most popular politician in Nicaragua and the Sandinistas the largest political organization. And the reason for this popularity is Washington's absolute failure, after winning the Contra War to deliver on its thunderous promises to bring Nicaraguans humane development.

Jeane Kirkpatrick is one of those foreign-policy hawks who blame Chavez for Ortega's comeback. In the 1980s, as Ronald Reagan's ambassador to the UN Kirkpatrick defended the Contra War as part of a broader foreign policy that would both "protect U.S. interest and make the actual lives of actual people in Latin America somewhat better." Nicaraguans are still waiting for the second half of that pledge to be fulfilled.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtoknow/2006/11/chavez_v_bush_in_nicaragua.html

 

[JoePolitix]

Sandinistas take power

Nicaragua moves left...

http://upsidedownworld.org/main/content/view/588/1/

On January 10, 2007, Daniel Ortega of the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) was inaugurated for his second term as president of Nicaragua after spending seventeen years in opposition...

...Although Ortega ran on a platform of "National Reconciliation" in an attempt to make amends with former opponents, and spent the months since the November 2006 elections reassuring the business community that the new Sandinista government would guarantee property rights and maintain the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), the first few days of the new Ortega administration demonstrate a strong commitment to left-leaning reform and to establishing relationships with outspoken leftist governments in the region.

Though Ortega’s rhetoric is a far cry from the virulent anti-imperialist language he used in the 1980s, his actions have made it clear who his preferred allies are. After an inaugural ceremony, which Ortega celebrated with Hugo Chávez of Venezuela and Evo Morales of Bolivia close to his side, Ortega’s first official act as the president of Nicaragua was to sign on to the Alternativa Bolviariana para las Americas (ALBA), an agreement based on the principles of cooperation, solidarity, and mutual assistance as opposed to neoliberal economics. Ortega stated that the integration and unity of Latin American and Caribbean peoples will "permit the incorporation of our region in the world with conditions that assure our right to sustainable development and the unrestricted exercise of national sovereignty in the face of hegemonic pretensions." ALBA’s membership now consists of Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia, and Nicaragua, and could soon grow to five if newly inaugurated Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa signs on...

The Nicaraguan Ministry of Education has also announced a plan for reforming the nation’s education system in order to boost attendance levels and the quality of instruction. The new Minister of Education, Miguel de Castilla (who served as Vice-Minister of Education during the 1980s), declared an end to school autonomy, which was established in 1993 and has effectively led to the privatization of the public school system. Under the policy of school autonomy, the government only provided money for teachers’ salaries, forcing schools to charge their students fees in order to cover other operating costs. This has undermined the very notion of public education, and in a country of under 6 million, currently 850,000 school-age children do not attend school. Moreover, 50% of students who enroll in school at the beginning of the year are forced to drop out because their families cannot afford the school fees.

The new Ministry of Education has thus committed itself to abolishing all forms of fees in order to make public education affordable to all. De Castilla has also announced plans for a national literacy crusade using a version of the Cuban "Yo Sí Puedo" methodology. The 1980 National Literacy Crusade, in which tens of thousands of volunteers worked in the countryside and cities to lower the illiteracy rate from 51% to 12.9%, was one of the most important achievements of the Nicaraguan Revolution. This low illiteracy level was unable to be maintained due to the Sandinista government’s subsequent economic problems resulting from the war and embargo and the later neoliberal governments’ lack of funding for education.

...Ortega has also announced a plan called "Cero Pobreza" to eradicate the extreme poverty that more than half of the Nicaraguan population suffers from. The Council for Food Security, headed by sociologist Orlando Nuñez, will carry out the program. Nuñez explains that the program’s objective is to "capitalize the food production sectors in Nicaragua. That is to say, it is not just a social assistance program, but also a productive project that sets up the base for an agro-industrial project. The economic heart of the program is to capitalize 75,000 peasant families with large and small scale livestock, seeds, and industrial equipment."