isn't it going more or less as all the polls forecasted?
Local Elections May 5th 2022
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Oddball round up:
Ann Marie Waters Leader of For Britain
Ann Marie Waters Leader of For Britain
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Yes, and petty much what I expected, despite what I posted from Electoral Calculus yesterday, which seemed way too optimist, hence my
reaction in that post.Electoral Calculus is forecasting the Tories to lose 548 seats in England & Wales.
View attachment 321265
Local Election Poll April 2022
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Oddball round up:
Piers Corbyn came 9th of 12 with 200 votes in the Faraday ward in Southwark
Piers Corbyn came 9th of 12 with 200 votes in the Faraday ward in Southwark
I saw on twitter someone from the NIP celebrating 'coming within a few votes of beating the lib dems!' - after googling the ward he was standing in, it turns out that while he was a few votes behind the lib dem candidate, he was also last with 70-odd votes...
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The results for my bit of Surrey (Tandridge) are already in.
There's a definite geographical divide between the north and the south. The district is 94% Green belt with the larger settlements in the north.
With the imposition of planning obligations there's been a growth in NIMBY groups headed by the Oxted & Limpsfield Resident Group (OLRG) in the south. So much so that they became the largest grouping on the Council in the last election. They've consolidated their position this time around taking four further seats from the Tories.
The north is somewhat different as they'd rather see any new development taking place in the southso these wards were fought more on party lines. The Tories lost a further seat to the LibDems.
The council as a whole has remained in 'no overall control' with the OLRG (and associated independents) being the largest group (18 seats), LibDems have become the official 'opposition' (11 seats) and the Tories (10 seats) are now relegated to the third largest grouping. There are three other independents who make up the rest.
I don't think these local results have any bearing on anything at a national level. It really has been fought on local issues.
Having grown up in Limpsfield, and gone to school in Oxted, it seems very weird seeing the Tories in third place, but of course it's only because of OLRG, who are probably mostly Tories anyway.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
In my dad's council ward the ex-tory independent candidate - who used to take a big chunk of the vote and come second - recently died and there was some concern his vote would go to the tories and put the ward at risk for Labour - in fact almost all of his support seems to have transfered to the Labour candidate, which I was pretty surprised about.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Wow, superficially run of the mill localists. But dig in and there's at least on key member with a delightfully intense vision of democracy.
Good stuff!
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
They didn't poll well, in one ward they only got 6 votes, probably all family members.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
But only about 30 votes behind the Tories too tbf.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
...whilst looking for that result (local news websites are a nightmare) I noticed that in Sheffield the Yorkshire Party were regularly beating the Lib Dems, which I enjoyed.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Council websites are probably better.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Generally. But sometimes slower to update and harder to find.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Main story is, or should be, how poorly Labour have done with yet another massive open goal.
#Starmerout
#Starmerout
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Really? I could only see them doing so in manor & castle on a quick look.
NIP did only come about six behind them in city ward
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
I was only scrolling through quickly tbh. The adverts were getting in the way.
But, I'm still taking it as Yorkshire Party beating Lib Dems being entertaining.
Benjamin F
Lost my faith in Nihilism
Further minor party oddities.
Libertarian (let the rich do what they like) Party stood quite a few candidates in Dudley, with one or two getting 10% of the vote. In Brierly Hill they not only beat Reform but took enough votes of the Tories to give Labour the seat; similarly in Lye & Stourbridge North the 280 votes for the Libertarian Party if given to the Tories would have beaten the otherwise victorious Labour candidate. Note sure why Dudley has become such a magnet for free market fundamentalists.
TUSC stood in one ward in Dudley and got nearly 7% of the vote, which must be close to a record high for them.
Libertarian (let the rich do what they like) Party stood quite a few candidates in Dudley, with one or two getting 10% of the vote. In Brierly Hill they not only beat Reform but took enough votes of the Tories to give Labour the seat; similarly in Lye & Stourbridge North the 280 votes for the Libertarian Party if given to the Tories would have beaten the otherwise victorious Labour candidate. Note sure why Dudley has become such a magnet for free market fundamentalists.
TUSC stood in one ward in Dudley and got nearly 7% of the vote, which must be close to a record high for them.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
From a 30 second perusal of the results, I'm guessing 'bad for johnson, but not a knockout' will be the verdict when tories come back to Westminster? As much as I want him humiliated - I ardently wanted him to die from Covid, tbh - that's probably the best state of affairs looking to the next gen election.
Labour still at the wet fart stage of political development.
Labour still at the wet fart stage of political development.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
I think if you're looking at the national picture for Labour/Tories/LibDems there's not much new or unexpected for the pundits to take from it.
Tories did a bit bad as expected.
Labour did ok some places, not so ok in others. No real momentum (sic).
LibDems as usual made some default tactical gains but nothing to suggest they return to their constituency meetings and prepare for power.
The real interest is digging into the results at ward level for clues and red herrings that pundits will be oblivious about.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
psephology: mind games for the middle classes
editor
hiraethified
We're running a live blog: Lambeth Council local elections 2022 – follow the Brixton Buzz LIVE blog
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Everyone needs a spectator sport or two to follow from their armchair.
Fozzie Bear
Well-Known Member
I mean why not:
Lurdan
old wave
this happened with an ex-urb standing as a lib dem candidate here a few years ago - the Labour candidate fucked up their noms and had to stand as an independent or for the co-op party or something, and he ended up getting in. resigned a few days later iirc
Gerry1time
Did a wee in Dirac's toilet
Inevitable. Utterly inevitable. Before the first referendum in 2012, I went to a talk by an academic on the subject. He said what normally happens when there's a yes vote is that an independent gets in for a short time, then the traditional governing party (Labour in Bristol) get back in and run the city with more power and less scrutiny, then people dislike the system and change back to how things were before.
The whole venture only happened because of a low general turnout and high levels of support in the triangle between Gloucester Road and Whiteladies Road. It was essentially a middle class coup rather than a thing of the whole city, and it's no surprise it's failed.
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