Local Elections May 5th 2022

[Kaka Tim]

outside of London , labour the vote share is down compared to 2018 when the evil/useless Corbyn was in charge. And against probably the most corrupt, inept and toxic prime minister and government in living memory with a country in the throes of a deepening cost of living crises. That's a pretty impressive level of sheer mediocrity from starmer.

 

[brogdale]

outside of London , labour the vote share is down compared to 2018 when the evil/useless Corbyn was in charge. And against probably the most corrupt, inept and toxic prime minister and government in living memory with a country in the throes of a deepening cost of living crises. That's a pretty impressive level of sheer mediocrity from starmer.

Leave voters will never forgive Starmer.

 

[contadino]

Leave voters will never forgive Starmer.

Remain voters will never forgive the 'opposition' party that enabled Brexit either. Rock and a hard place.

 

[maomao]

Leave voters will never forgive Starmer.

I voted leave and Brexit has very little to do with my hatred of Starmer.

 

[not a trot]

Only two candidates in my ward. Labour guy doesn't expect to take back the seat he lost last time. As he say's, the Nepalese community all vote Tory, as one of them is the sitting candidate.

He took the seat back. No labour gains anywhere else, still Tory dominated council.

 

[brogdale]

I voted leave and Brexit has very little to do with my hatred of Starmer.

Fair enough, but in some Leave heavy regions the blue scum are taking seats off Starmer's scum

 

[cupid_stunt]

Westminster has fallen to Labour, Sky reporting 29 seats gives them an overall majority, first time since 1964.

By the time counting finished it was 31 for Labour to 23 for the Tories, that's a big majority.

 

[ska invita]

Overall the results indicate the further and deepening detachment and peripheralisation of another chunk of the working class away from ‘mainstream politics’.

What bit of the results leads you to that conclusion?

 

[killer b]

Remain voters will never forgive the 'opposition' party that enabled Brexit either. Rock and a hard place.

I don't think this is true at all, outside a very small number of FBPE true believers

 

[cupid_stunt]

Labour won the Rottingdean Coastal by-election (Brighton and Hove City Council), until 2019 it was considered safe for three Tory seats, that year they lost one to an independent, this is the first ever Labour councillor for the ward.

The Tories were pushed into third place by an independent, and the LibDems were in sixth place!

 

[ska invita]

Labour won the Rottingdean Coastal by-election (Brighton and Hove City Council), until 2019 it was considered safe for three Tory seats, that year they lost one to an independent, this is the first ever Labour councillor for the ward.

The Tories were pushed into third place by an independent, and the LibDems were in sixth place!

View attachment 321411

Down from London, Brighton overspill along the coast eh?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Down from London, Brighton overspill along the coast eh?

Probably, which is part of the reason that Worthing could end-up being Labour controlled for the first time ever.

I've still got 5-6 hours before finding out.

 

[chilango]

Fair enough, but in some Leave heavy regions the blue scum are taking seats off Starmer's scum

I'm not convinced this is because of Brexit though.

Brexit was a manifestation of a longer term vacuum/abandonment of w/c (and soi dissant w/c) voters by Labour.

The BNP at the turn of the millennium should've been a much bigger wake-up call than it was.

It there's been no Brexit/UKIP etc. the void would've been filled by something else from the Right.

It's probably not the thread for it, and its been discussed ad nauseum but the Left in England has never managed to get its head around the changing socioeconomic situation post-Thatcher and clings on to old tropes long past there "best before date". The idea of the "working class' has become an empty fetish without any analytical rigour, so we all end up discussing quinoa and the Red Wall and get distracted.

 

[The39thStep]

Ex poster on here managed to see off Britain First in Walkden, Salford

 

[brogdale]

I'm not convinced this is because of Brexit though.

Brexit was a manifestation of a longer term vacuum/abandonment of w/c (and soi dissant w/c) voters by Labour.

The BNP at the turn of the millennium should've been a much bigger wake-up call than it was.

It there's been no Brexit/UKIP etc. the void would've been filled by something else from the Right.

It's probably not the thread for it, and its been discussed ad nauseum but the Left in England has never managed to get its head around the changing socioeconomic situation post-Thatcher and clings on to old tropes long past there "best before date". The idea of the "working class' has become an empty fetish without any analytical rigour, so we all end up discussing quinoa and the Red Wall and get distracted.

All fair points; it's just that I can't see what else those voting tory to swing Lab held seats in leavey areas are voting for

 

[chilango]

All fair points; it's just that I can't see what else those voting tory to swing Lab held seats in leavey areas are voting for

It's more about what they're voting against.

 

[brogdale]

It's more about what they're voting against.

The metro elite?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Here's a full list of councils that are starting to count about now, and when the results are expected.

Around 9am

• Counting begins for a further 71 councils in England and all councils in Scotland and Wales

From 12pm

• Results likely to resume in England
• Green Party hoping to make gains in Conservative-controlled Solihull
• Labour hoping to do likewise in Tory-run Walsall
• First results also due from Scotland and for the mayoral elections in Hackney, Lewisham, Newham and Watford

From 2pm

• Two key councils in West Sussex due to declare; Worthing, a top Labour target, and Crawley, where both the Tories and Labour are hoping to gain control
• Liberal Democrats could make gains in West Oxfordshire
• East Renfrewshire, a three-way battle between the Conservatives, Labour and the SNP, to declare
• First results due from Wales

From 3pm

• Another key Conservative-Labour battleground, Newcastle-under-Lyme in Staffordshire, due to finish counting
• In Wales, Labour looking to take control of Blaenau Gwent from a group of Independents
• Flintshire is a test of Tory popularity in an area in which they did well at the 2019 general election
• Aberdeenshire will be a measure of Conservative support in Scotland
• All parties hope to pick up seats in Edinburgh

From 4pm

• Conservatives and Liberal Democrats fighting for control of the new unitary authority in Somerset
• SNP looking to hold off any sign of a Labour resurgence in Glasgow
• Lib Dems hope to strengthen control of St Albans
• Tories want to keep control of Pendle in Lancashire
• Result of South Yorkshire mayoral election due

From 5pm

• Lib Dems hope to cause an upset in Tory-run Gosport in Hampshire
• Labour defending a slim majority in Cardiff
• Result in Labour-run Wakefield could offer clues to the outcome of the expected parliamentary by-election in the city later this year, after Conservative MP Imran Khan was convicted of sexual assault
• Tower Hamlets in London due to declare the result of its mayoral election
• Renfrewshire is the last result due from Scotland

Evening

• North Hertfordshire could see both Labour and the Lib Dems gaining from the Conservatives
• Labour hoping to improve its majority in Bury in Greater Manchester
• Vale of Glamorgan is the final result due from Wales
• In London, the Croydon mayoral result is expected

Saturday 7 May​

Around 9am

• Counting continues for the council election in Tower Hamlets in London

Around 5pm

• Final result due from Tower Hamlets

 

[spitfire]

Here's a full list of councils that are starting to count about now, and when the results are expected.

Tower Hamlets get your shit together! Tomorrow?!?!?

I wonder is that down to previous dodginess in elections?

 

[chilango]

The metro elite?

No (though that has been shoehorned in now). My take is that they're voting against the status quo - Labour - who have been in (local) power for generations yet changed nothing, failed to stop post-industrial decline and taken their position utterly for granted.

This pre-dates Brexit. It really came to a head with Blair (but Kinnock failed in '92 in a seemingly foregone election).

Scotland has been a more dramatic example, but there hasn't been an equivalent to the SNP here, so first the BNP, then UKIP, then the Brexit Party and now the Tories are the vehicle for abandoned voters to use to express this.

I think we're also starting to see it amongst "younger Labour voters" (i.e under 50s ) often but not always outside the so-called Red Wall voting Green (alongside the Greens traditional base of core voters).

It's all speculation of course, but the inability of established Political analysis to get to grips with a pissed off and savvy electorate that don't play along to the rules of "Yes Minister" and "Question Time" has left them clueless and largely unable to respond beyond superficial platitudes such as "Leavers vs. Remainders".


I might well be completely wrong, but that's my take.

 

[chilango]

Interestingly I've just caught a bit of the Britain Elects briefing and they were looking at Green gains in places like Cumbria, Westside, Stockport etc. that had seemingly come out of nowhere. I think it would useful to to reflect on that in the light of my argument above.

 

[chilango]

Important to note for the record that my "support" for the Greens is purely tactical and negative. In power they're as shit as any party, but they're (currently) a useful vehicle for fucking over parties of government.

 

[TopCat]

I voted (Labour). Feel a bit dirty.

 

[cupid_stunt]

BBC News has just shown a graph of voting in what they call 'key wards', 470 out of 738 declared so far:

CON -4%, LAB -0.4%, LD +1%
GRN +3%, IND +2% UKIP -2%

 

[gentlegreen]

So Bristol has dumped the elected mayor in favour of something else..
It's going to be hanging over Marvin Rees for the last couple of years of his mayor-icy ...

 

[Leafster]

The results for my bit of Surrey (Tandridge) are already in.

There's a definite geographical divide between the north and the south. The district is 94% Green belt with the larger settlements in the north.

With the imposition of planning obligations there's been a growth in NIMBY groups headed by the Oxted & Limpsfield Resident Group (OLRG) in the south. So much so that they became the largest grouping on the Council in the last election. They've consolidated their position this time around taking four further seats from the Tories.

The north is somewhat different as they'd rather see any new development taking place in the south so these wards were fought more on party lines. The Tories lost a further seat to the LibDems.

The council as a whole has remained in 'no overall control' with the OLRG (and associated independents) being the largest group (18 seats), LibDems have become the official 'opposition' (11 seats) and the Tories (10 seats) are now relegated to the third largest grouping. There are three other independents who make up the rest.

I don't think these local results have any bearing on anything at a national level. It really has been fought on local issues.

 

[pbsmooth]

As has been said before, it feels like Labour's domination in London is something of a double-edged sword. Tories and the rest just put all the bogeyman things all the centre/right doesn't like on London - crime, immigration, woke, trans, elite etc - and therefore Labour Party.

 

[The39thStep]

Interestingly I've just caught a bit of the Britain Elects briefing and they were looking at Green gains in places like Cumbria, Westside, Stockport etc. that had seemingly come out of nowhere. I think it would useful to to reflect on that in the light of my argument above.

The Stockport one in Reddish didn't come out of nowhere as last year the Greens took one of the three seats , they added a second at this election.

Edit. Don't think this undermines your substantive point in post #230

 

[Kaka Tim]

Leave voters will never forgive Starmer.

All fair points; it's just that I can't see what else those voting tory to swing Lab held seats in leavey areas are voting for

more likely not voting at all

 

[_Russ_]

Summary so far seems to be not as bad as expected for the Tories, not as good as expected for Labour, with turnout in some areas hovering around just 20%.

Pretty much in line with my expectations, but Im not the eternal Optimist you are (Not meant as a criticism)