Local Elections May 5th 2022

[brogdale]

A thread to discuss the forthcoming local elections on May 5th.

A few, (now traditional?), things I've noticed in this first full-scale electoral process after the pandemic...

There appear to be hardly any stake-boards or window posters up in my (Lib Dem) controlled borough, and the yellow streak have trad been very good at getting their loathsome orange lozenges out and about. Does this signal that the parties have still not returned to traditional door-step canvassing or have given it up for good?

On the media some national politicians have been engaging in the usual, pre-polling expectation management and one line has been about the LP defending a "2018 high-water mark". A cursory glance at the, albeit, national polling context casts some doubt on that line:



Last time around on 03/05/18 the vermin were on 41% & LP on 39%
Recent poll of polling numbers put them respectively on 34% & 40%
so I'm not really buying that 'high-water mark' stuff...this mid-electoral cycle the LP should be making ground against the increasingly unpopular governing party.

So...any one interested? Anyone going to vote? Is it worth it?

 

[strung out]

Got a referendum on whether to keep our elected mayor or not, and that's it.

Will probably vote to keep him, if only to piss off the Tories and Lib Dems who want to get rid because they know they don't have a hope in hell of getting one of their lot elected.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Well it's going to be interesting here, it looks like Labour could take over Worthing Borough Council for the first time ever, which is a shocker as they only won their first ever seat in a by-election 5 years ago.

Current make-up is Tories & Labour both on 17 (1 former LD), 2 LibDems, and 1 independent (former Tory), with 14 seats up for election this year.

 

[killer b]

On the media some national politicians have been engaging in the usual, pre-polling expectation management and one line has been about the LP defending a "2018 high-water mark".

The 2018 local elections saw the Labour Party win 2353 council seats, and the Tories win 1332. That's the high water mark that's being talked about rather than national polling.

Here in Preston the Labour vote could go up quite considerably without threatening many of the remaining Tory seats - imagine it's the same situation in a lot of places.

 

[killer b]

This is why local elections are often such damp squibs - there's an expectation of seismic change when seismic change isn't really possible on that particular cycle.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Here's the full list of elections -

6,860 council seats are up in 200 councils. The councils up for election include Labour’s strongest territory in England: all the London boroughs and all the metropolitan boroughs except Liverpool. The following elections are being held:

• Every seat in all 32 Scottish councils;
• Every seat in all 22 Welsh councils;
• Every seat in all 32 London borough councils;
• Every seat in four metropolitan borough councils (Birmingham, Bury, Rochdale, St Helens);
• One-third of the seats in 29 other metropolitan borough councils;
• Every seat in five unitary councils;
• One third of the seats in 16 unitary councils;
• Every seat in five district councils;
• Half the seats in six district councils;
• One-third of the seats in 49 district councils;
• The metro mayor South Yorkshire; and
• The mayors of Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Watford.

There's a lot of interesting background to these elections on the Labour List website.

In the metropolitan boroughs, Labour already controls all except eight. In the districts, Labour could gain control of Crawley and Worthing. It is difficult to see any unitary authorities where it is mathematically possible for Labour to make enough seat gains to take control. If Labour was to lose control of any councils, Sunderland is the ‘Red Wall’ target the Tories are targeting hardest.

<cough> both Crawley and Worthing are actually borough councils in West Sussex, the other five lower tier councils are district councils.

The location of councils and seats that change hands is important too: we need to make seat gains in councils covering areas similar to seats we need to gain to get an overall majority in a general election – Barnet, Burnley, Bury, Colchester, Crawley, Cumberland, Derby, Flintshire, Hartlepool, Hastings, Milton Keynes, Plymouth, Rossendale, Southampton, Swindon, Worthing and Wrexham, for example.

What would good election results for Labour in May 2022 look like? – LabourList

In the run-up to every set of May elections when there isn’t a general election, I write a guide to what constitutes success for Labour.…

labourlist.org

 

[Bus Honeygun]

Haven't seen any window labels and those posts aren't really a thing where I live because it's mostly Victorian terracing without front gardens and the ones that do have front gardens wouldn't want to give anyone a free spear.

Lib Dem fucker has come round twice with leaflets saying he's always stood up for our district. I've never heard of him before this week. He's also obviously had a pop at the Labour incumbent council, some of which (stuff implying they're rolling in cash, which isn't true for any local authority right now) is lies.

I'll admit I'm the kind of tribal Labour voter who would indeed vote for a pig in a red rosette, but I still think Exeter will stay Labour controlled and so will my bit of town. Think the Greens might start to build on their vote and make inroads. Not a good thing in my opinion, having some experience of one of their councillors. Middle class NIMBYism dressed up as environmental politics.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I was at mum-tat's place for the weekend (Lewisham borough)

The tory candidate for mayor's leaflet includes

"I am not a career politician. I'm a resident with two adult children and a greyhound who had a successful career in the commercial world."

OK, can we vote for the greyhound instead?

 

[Louis MacNeice]

I was at mum-tat's place for the weekend (Lewisham borough)

The tory candidate for mayor's leaflet includes



OK, can we vote for the greyhound instead?

That career didn't include proof reading!

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[a_chap]

Our Tory candidate hand-delivered an Easter card to us last week!

The labour candidate liked a Tweet of mine.

Makes it hard to decide who to vote for really...

 

[Supine]

I get to choose Tory or Lib Dem. Labour don’t even bother putting anyone up!

 

[danny la rouge]

I have seen:

One Green window poster. There’s not even a poster in the window of a neighbour who is a candidate in the next door ward!

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I don’t get the chance to not vote this time.

 

[miktheword]

Big elections over here on 5th May, North of Ireland.

Will SF get first ever Nationalist FM? (both FM and DFM are equal but symbolism means everything here, especially for Unionist side)

Conversely, despite the predicted clusterfuck for the DUP, will 'keeping themmuns out' win the day?

Can the Alliance continue to make ground, with SDLP floundering in the polls (seem to attack SF too much; hasn't gone down too well with nationalists) lot of tactical voting here, especially keeping other side out where yours has no chance.

The UUP , under Beattie's leadership, trying for a progressive unionism vote
Also, DUP and TUV are ramping up the debates with anti protocol rallies, inviting fuckwit right winger nutjobs from the US; also recently had an effigy of Beattie with a noose around his neck ; arch unionists like Sammy Wilson have been booed off stage at one anti protocol rally; DUP saying they won't re-enter Stormont if protocol isn't reformed; collapsed assembly a couple off months ago due to this issue.

In unionist areas mainly, rival candidates posters been burned and some candidates been chased off the streets.

Plus STV complicates any predictions and it's mostly the 5th candidate elected that will make the difference, so DUP could still outdo their main polling, when counted in seats, after transfers.

 

[YouSir]

Get the feeling Labour are going to lose a load of votes in my corner of SE London, seem to have pissed everyone from all sides off. Still reckon they'll retain control but a drop might put the fear into them.

 

[cupid_stunt]

In our central ward, we have a loon standing as the 'Freedom Alliance. Stop the Great Reset.'

 

[chilango]

Every seat in Reading is up for grabs (iirc).

Greens making a big push to hold all 3 councillors in my ward. Lots of window posters.

Labour appear to have given up. Only a couple of boards and the candidates - whilst perfectly reasonable sounding - are young, inexperienced and out of ward from what I can see, rather than their past record of standing people prominent/rooted in (sections of) the community.

The rest of Reading? Dunno.

 

[brogdale]

I genuinely quite intrigued about what will happen in my borough, LibDem held Sutton.

The incumbent controlling LD group have been in place for 30 years and at obvious risk from 'change-maker' challengers. Of course they have always played the 'we're not the tories' card. But the local opposition are the vermin who are beset by the same (national) problems of incumbency and on-going damage from blustercunt. Labour exist only in name and haven't had a single councillor since 2006, so who knows what will happen?

i suppose this is, in reality, a recipe for little change on an even lower than usual turnout? I expect the vermin might pick of a few more leafy wards and it looks like the LP have a couple of genuine local campaigners in one of our newly designated, smaller wards, so maybe they'll break their duck?

 

[Leafster]

Only some of the councillors are up for re-election here in Tandridge. My ward isn't one of them so it's not surprising I haven't seen any leaflets or posters.

A residents alliance (OLRGA *) is currently the largest group on the council with 16 seats, there's 14 Tories, 9 Libdems and two Independents. Last time around the Tory's lost one councillor (net) and the Libdems three (net).

There's a bit of churn in the Tory/Libdem marginals with OLRGA slowly picking off the seats in the south and east.

I suspect a couple of the marginal Tory/Libdem seats may switch back to Libdem but I can't be sure.

* Oxted & Limpsfield Residents Group Alliance - a group formed to stop large scale development in the more rural part of the district.

 

[SpackleFrog]

All three of my councillors currently are Green - not sure which one is up for election. There is not much evidence of campaigning or of Labour attempting to oust them.

I will probably vote for the TUSC candidate, without much enthusiasm, particularly given the candidate is a student I've never heard of.

Can't vote TUSC in the South Yorkshire mayor so wondering who to vote for in that. A little while ago Momentum were saying that one of the main reasons to 'stay and fight' in Labour was to get Lewis Dagnall elected as South Yorkshire mayor, so I was wondering if I might be compelled to vote for him. But he lost the nomination to some no-mark right winger, Oliver Coppard, who is notable only for losing to Nick Clegg in 2015 and being significantly more sexually attractive than any of the other middle aged men standing for election.

If anyone would like to buy my vote I am therefore open to offers. Otherwise will probably vote Spunking Cock Party.

Interestingly, there is an SDP candidate for South Yorkshire mayor. Some colonel blimp type who says that Labour has abandoned the working man in favour of "gender neutral toilets".

 

[StoneRoad]

No elections in Northumberland [this time] so I don't get to vote ...

and I've gone onto postal voting.

 

[Tony_LeaS]

Mayoral and full council elections in Tower Hamlets, oh the joy.

Just scrap the fucking lot.

 

[kenny g]

Havering may well go to Havering Residents Association from vermin. Usually this results in residents jumping ship and becoming Tory councillors directly after the election in exchange for cabinet posts. Apparently this time round they have sworn an oath of loyalty to not cross sides. To make things more interesting there is an Independent Residents Association who refuse to work with anyone and have ex NF members as councillors.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

So far had communications from yellow vermin (incumbent councillor, she's actually fairly good at local stuff) and blue vermin

fairly solid tory council (wokingham), limp dem opposition. (think the limp dems had best of a 'no overall control' for a year or two at the depths of the john major era)

not heard yet from labour or green candidates.

meh.

 

[chilango]

Every seat in Reading is up for grabs (iirc).

Greens making a big push to hold all 3 councillors in my ward. Lots of window posters.

Labour appear to have given up. Only a couple of boards and the candidates - whilst perfectly reasonable sounding - are young, inexperienced and out of ward from what I can see, rather than their past record of standing people prominent/rooted in (sections of) the community.

The rest of Reading? Dunno.

Had the "all Reading" leaflet come through the door from Labour. Surprisingly lacklustre. They control the council but their pitch is really, really half-hearted. The Tories and Lib Dems are confined to pretty limited pockets and have no "street presence" so it's fertile ground for Green gains I think. In my ward the "poster war" is the most one sided I've ever seen.

Interesting to see how it pans out.

 

[chilango]

Had the "all Reading" leaflet come through the door from Labour. Surprisingly lacklustre. They control the council but their pitch is really, really half-hearted. The Tories and Lib Dems are confined to pretty limited pockets and have no "street presence" so it's fertile ground for Green gains I think. In my ward the "poster war" is the most one sided I've ever seen.

Interesting to see how it pans out.

...there are more fucking Extinction Rebellion posters up in people's windows than Labour ones.

 

[UrbaneFox]

I live in a 99% Conservative borough, and the labour councillor around here has pissed off the locals so much that we could end up being 100%.

I'd like to do my bit to ruin her but unfortunately she isn't standing this time.

 

[quiet guy]

Had a local right wing nut job leaflet through the letter box recently. Not seen any of the mainstream parties post anything or stick up any posters.

 

[Elpenor]

...there are more fucking Extinction Rebellion posters up in people's windows than Labour ones.

Park ward (where I used to live) has been Green for years hasn’t it, and I think Redlands is going that way now too.

 

[chilango]

Park ward (where I used to live) has been Green for years hasn’t it, and I think Redlands is going that way now too.

Yeah, Park (where I live now) has been 3/3 Green for as long as I can remember and Redlands - which was all Labour when I lived there a few years back - is now 2/3 Green.