We are all africans.
Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement
- Thread starter ernestolynch
- Start date
We are all africans.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Back in the day his intelligence agency goons sometimes messed with people overseas, even killed a few I think, but I think that was a long long time ago and may have been focussed more on Italy than the UK at the time. Who knows what, if any, capability they have today. @iyad_elbaghdadi was concerned that someone was trying to hack his email early today, or yesterday.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
It's all getting a bit 'Last days of Hitler' isn't it?
dylans
overlord of all acorns
I hope they get him. I really really hope they get him.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
What he has done has got to be paid for. Just hope he doesn't take too many out with him. Someone near him must realise soon that all is lost and save their own skins by taking him out.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I think the people him are too much beneficiaries of the regime to take him out, it would likely not save their skins after all, I am afraid a possibly protracted civil war may be more likely the more days pass without a result.
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
big cock by the Libyans they flew a plane load of weapons into the hands of the revolutionary youth after reports of the airport being capture by the Libyans...(I find that hard to believe so how! I wonder if it's been flow in by supporters)
source: http://www.libyafeb17.com/?p=2928
Wouldn't surprise me if it was another country at work here...
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Indeed, I want him tried by the ICC.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
I want him tried by the Libyan people
dylans
overlord of all acorns
I keep hearing this but frankly its a bit silly. This revolution isn't even two weeks old and they have captured most of the country including the two main cities after Tripoli. I know that we all want instant results but ffs even Egypt took 18 days. He is falling, there won't be a civil war. His forces are only getting smaller and more isolated hour by hour and day by day. The revolution is winning.
quimcunx
imprimeo, lamino, distribuo
There have been various rumours of underground an prison in Benghazi where prisoners haven't seen the light of day for years, or that people have been put in during the uprising going around for the past week. Elbows or classic dish, I think linked to a vague article by Martin Chulov while he was in Benghazi saying people claimed they heard voices and were digging frantically but not found anything. Sky news now have this story where they look at the, now empty underground space, where it's claimed the people of Benghazi found seven men, all nearly dead, and now being treated in hospital, who had been entombed alive. No interview with them but Sky are treating it as fact.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Article/201009115942002
When I first saw this on Twitter it was regarding longterm prisoners and someone in Tripoli said something along the lines of ''yes we've long suspected at X in Tripoli there is the same''.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Article/201009115942002
When I first saw this on Twitter it was regarding longterm prisoners and someone in Tripoli said something along the lines of ''yes we've long suspected at X in Tripoli there is the same''.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Don't get me wrong, I hope you are right.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
His assests are forzen, he has dwindling support, he has lost control of the oil, hes is under an arms embargo - it would be very difficult for him to fight any sort of protracted conflict. The worst case scenario is a siege of Tripoli that goes on for several weeks - beyond that Gadaffis postion would become increasingly hopeless as food, water, fuel and ammunition start to run out.
I just hope that he doesn't get the opportunity to sacrifice any more of his people to serve some sort of vainglourious 'final stand'.
I just hope that he doesn't get the opportunity to sacrifice any more of his people to serve some sort of vainglourious 'final stand'.
classicdish
Well-Known Member
Indeed. The best way of contacting UK based Libyan activists is via various facebook pages and via people on twitter. I will try and make a list of some of them in a bit. Anyone in London or Manchester can drop buy the demos and have a chat with the people there - it is very easy to find organisers (often will be wearing hi-viz, but just ask someone). I feel that this is a very good time for UK activists to ask what we can do to help these guys. Just turn up and have a chat or do it online. I haven't really managed to do much so far other than try and publicise their demos, make a couple of banners and have a quick chat and get a couple of phone numbers, but I am going to make a bigger effort this week. If anyone else wants to meet up with me in London then please send a PM.
elbows
Well-Known Member
As if Saif's propaganda campaign was not enough of a fail already, coming at the wrong point, and after his evil rant speech, and because of what journalists actually saw on their trip with minders, it seems to have been dealt another blow tonight. Someone has filmed him standing on a car with a gun, seemingly inciting people to be violent, and uploaded it to the net 
Now I cant understand a word of it myself so I will have to wait for a translation, but lol anyway.
Now I cant understand a word of it myself so I will have to wait for a translation, but lol anyway.classicdish
Well-Known Member
In reality it is led by Clegg plus some other ministers and she rubber stamps whatever they have already decided upon (similar to when she gives 'royal assent' to bills of parliament that have already been passed by the house). Some of the stuff they discuss is a bit bizarre for example February 9th included assent to the royal wedding but also and order prohibiting further burials in st mary's churchyard in handsworth, sheffield including a fairly ropey diagram - almost like a glorified parish council planning committee meeting (link )
quimcunx
imprimeo, lamino, distribuo
As if Saif's propaganda campaign was not enough of a fail already, coming at the wrong point, and after his evil rant speech, and because of what journalists actually saw on their trip with minders, it seems to have been dealt another blow tonight. Someone has filmed him standing on a car with a gun, seemingly inciting people to be violent, and uploaded it to the net
It's getting translated now.
Saif: Keep morale high. Today we end rumours that security forces are with the terrorists. I'll show you something [reveals weapon] listen, you'll have support, supplies, weapons.. We're sorted we'll be victorious *chants* We're not inviting you for food, this is your country.. ..you must show them, you must take it back. *Chants* Don't leave your country to the 'trash'.. You're not facing an army or anything, they're just scum, trash. Today we'll go out in Tripoli, you'll live in it, and they won't be able to say anything... I'm going now. I'll be sending you the weaponry, and tonight I'm out to get more of it *chants*
classicdish
Well-Known Member
It's true that the number 1 rep. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdel_Rahman_Shalgham took a four more days to switch sides than his deputy & other staff but he has since then called gadafi's regime "fascist" link: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...bassador-denounces-gadhafi-at-u-n?ft=1&f=1001 and helped persuade "China, India and Russia to include a reference to the International Criminal Court, after they previously expressed concern that it could inflame the situation". There have been claims that he and the rest of the Libyan team also requested a no-fly zone over the country but I can't find anything definite on this.
classicdish
Well-Known Member
I thought Shabablibya was the name of the whole group - For example I saw the tweeter account say 'I've been up for 24 hours now, I am going to sleep', but then the posts just kept going... so I just assumed that it's a shared account with more than one person working on it. Obviously they have good reasons for remaining anonymous - first for the security of themselves and their friends and family in Libya, and secondly to avoid a 'Wael Ghonim thinks X' type scenario.
classicdish
Well-Known Member
@ Kaka Tim
I kind of agree, however the opposition also don't yet have massive supplies of fuel, food or money and even if they have managed to collected weapons and ammunition I think they are fairly old rather than the more recently acquired stuff that the elite units have. A siege of Tripoli, Sirt, the international airport and other regime areas that goes on for several weeks could see "food, water, fuel, ammunition" etc start to run out on *both* sides. Both sides will be making efforts to secure their supply lines for all these things, with the anti-gadafi east having access to ports and the egyptian border and maybe being able to get oil and water facilities up and running. Gadafi still seems to have access to airfields, ports and the south of the country with large unguarded borders in the Sahara and he has been involved in illegally moving arms and soldiers around the world for decades (especially over these very same borders).
It would be nice to think that what happened in Benghazi on Fri 18th - Sun 20th (A DIY 'human-wave' type assault) will happen in Tripoli very soon, but people have been expecting this for a week now and Tripoli and Benghazi are not exactly the same for various reasons. Expectations now seem to have shifted to the idea of a more conventional assault using liberated army units and weapons etc. which will take more time to prepare but again it isn't clear if this is actually the plan, or whether people expect something else to happen for example a siege leading to psychological collapse within regime or a 'palace coup' by guard, or worstening humanitarian conditions or attacks on oil infrastructure triggering international intervention.
A really bad scenario would be a sub-saharan style civil war with shit-loads of illegal arms and mercenary troops, large numbers of refugees, wholesale destruction of infrastucture and massacres of people - the kinds of things that Europe and America have ignored for decades a little further south when it involves darker-skinned and more remote people - although for that matter the civil war in Algeria dragged on for 10 years and 200,000 deaths without anyone doing much to bring it to an end.
It is too easy to confuse the clear moral case against him staying and the clear rejection of Gadafi by Libyans with the actual final physical removal of his forces - there are lots of examples of a small minority regime terrorising and massacring a majority population for years and years using militia forces, even if this means destroying everything around them in the process and a vast percentage of the population fleeing the country. Often even if the original combatants are eventually removed, by the time this happens other smaller armed groups have appeared and start shooting each other. In Algeria (and Iraq) it wasn't always known who the groups really were. It might be that every pirate, gangster and mercenary band in the world is heading to Libya as we speak, hoping to make their fortune and secure more weapons to eventually take home. Anyone remember in 2008 when Italian police busted a supposedly 'rogue' Libyan army officer placing an order via Italian mafia for 500,000 Chinese AK-47s (called T-56) and 10 million rounds of ammo? The Lybian army already has better guns and even including *all* reserves etc. = 100,000 max, so 500,000 is a vast number (the price was around $100/ea = $50 million which sounds alot but cf. $18 million for Saif's house in Hampstead).
Another danger is that if conditions deteriorate (on both sides) and the current #feb17 committees/groups can't get rid of gadafi - and Europe/US/UN/etc are not see by Libyans to be actually helping resolve things then this may create a situation where more extreme groups step into the vacuum. Another possible danger is if the military in Egypt or Algerian (or even Tunisia, Chad, Niger) get pissed off with things happening near / within / across their borders or decide to otherwise exploit the situation - if not actually doing so openly but by providing covert support (ie weapons/vehicles etc) to specific groups.
Let's hope nothing like this develops, but I don't think we can just *assume* that it is all over and the Gadafi-ists will simply self-destruct give a few more days siege. I hope that there is a more pro-active revolutionary plan already in operation.
I kind of agree, however the opposition also don't yet have massive supplies of fuel, food or money and even if they have managed to collected weapons and ammunition I think they are fairly old rather than the more recently acquired stuff that the elite units have. A siege of Tripoli, Sirt, the international airport and other regime areas that goes on for several weeks could see "food, water, fuel, ammunition" etc start to run out on *both* sides. Both sides will be making efforts to secure their supply lines for all these things, with the anti-gadafi east having access to ports and the egyptian border and maybe being able to get oil and water facilities up and running. Gadafi still seems to have access to airfields, ports and the south of the country with large unguarded borders in the Sahara and he has been involved in illegally moving arms and soldiers around the world for decades (especially over these very same borders).
It would be nice to think that what happened in Benghazi on Fri 18th - Sun 20th (A DIY 'human-wave' type assault) will happen in Tripoli very soon, but people have been expecting this for a week now and Tripoli and Benghazi are not exactly the same for various reasons. Expectations now seem to have shifted to the idea of a more conventional assault using liberated army units and weapons etc. which will take more time to prepare but again it isn't clear if this is actually the plan, or whether people expect something else to happen for example a siege leading to psychological collapse within regime or a 'palace coup' by guard, or worstening humanitarian conditions or attacks on oil infrastructure triggering international intervention.
A really bad scenario would be a sub-saharan style civil war with shit-loads of illegal arms and mercenary troops, large numbers of refugees, wholesale destruction of infrastucture and massacres of people - the kinds of things that Europe and America have ignored for decades a little further south when it involves darker-skinned and more remote people - although for that matter the civil war in Algeria dragged on for 10 years and 200,000 deaths without anyone doing much to bring it to an end.
It is too easy to confuse the clear moral case against him staying and the clear rejection of Gadafi by Libyans with the actual final physical removal of his forces - there are lots of examples of a small minority regime terrorising and massacring a majority population for years and years using militia forces, even if this means destroying everything around them in the process and a vast percentage of the population fleeing the country. Often even if the original combatants are eventually removed, by the time this happens other smaller armed groups have appeared and start shooting each other. In Algeria (and Iraq) it wasn't always known who the groups really were. It might be that every pirate, gangster and mercenary band in the world is heading to Libya as we speak, hoping to make their fortune and secure more weapons to eventually take home. Anyone remember in 2008 when Italian police busted a supposedly 'rogue' Libyan army officer placing an order via Italian mafia for 500,000 Chinese AK-47s (called T-56) and 10 million rounds of ammo? The Lybian army already has better guns and even including *all* reserves etc. = 100,000 max, so 500,000 is a vast number (the price was around $100/ea = $50 million which sounds alot but cf. $18 million for Saif's house in Hampstead).
Another danger is that if conditions deteriorate (on both sides) and the current #feb17 committees/groups can't get rid of gadafi - and Europe/US/UN/etc are not see by Libyans to be actually helping resolve things then this may create a situation where more extreme groups step into the vacuum. Another possible danger is if the military in Egypt or Algerian (or even Tunisia, Chad, Niger) get pissed off with things happening near / within / across their borders or decide to otherwise exploit the situation - if not actually doing so openly but by providing covert support (ie weapons/vehicles etc) to specific groups.
Let's hope nothing like this develops, but I don't think we can just *assume* that it is all over and the Gadafi-ists will simply self-destruct give a few more days siege. I hope that there is a more pro-active revolutionary plan already in operation.
classicdish
Well-Known Member
Just seen a few last minute additions from @iyad_elbaghdadi yesterday (my own selection - check his twitter feed to see everything: http://twitter.com/#!/iyad_elbaghdadi )
21.00
> Twitter seems to have forgiven me. I'm back here for a few minutes for replies.
21.00
@Tribulusterr > Possible backing up @iyad_elbaghdadi's reports of rumours of fresh mercenaries: @Ahmed_Alalem reports >20 planes a day landing at Mitiga
@iyad_elbaghdadi
> Latest buzz is that mercenaries have just arrived from Sudan and Serbia. He has recruiters, guns, and lots of cash.
> I just talked to someone from Zlitan and he said it's with Gaddafi. Information changes very fast, so it's OK.
> Best news today is Ghadamis. It used to be a mercenaries waypoint. I hope the rebels got the airport.
> Everyone in Tripoli today said there were strange activity at Mitiga
22.00
@ArmchairArab > Any take on this breaking news item? http://www.libyafeb17.com/?p=2930
@iyad_elbaghdadi > I got confirmation that there are deep divisions within Khweldi's unit. Someone said he has video footage of the incident.
22.00
@RickyTwotins > is there any footage of Tripoli planes bombing, firing on protesters, the aftermath etc?
@iyad_elbaghdadi > There may be but I didn't get any. Tripoli's wasn't bombing, it was aircraft-mounted gattling guns.
>OK, now I'm going to bed (and I'm serious this time). See you in the morning guys. Pray for Tripoli.
21.00
> Twitter seems to have forgiven me. I'm back here for a few minutes for replies.
21.00
@Tribulusterr > Possible backing up @iyad_elbaghdadi's reports of rumours of fresh mercenaries: @Ahmed_Alalem reports >20 planes a day landing at Mitiga
@iyad_elbaghdadi
> Latest buzz is that mercenaries have just arrived from Sudan and Serbia. He has recruiters, guns, and lots of cash.
> I just talked to someone from Zlitan and he said it's with Gaddafi. Information changes very fast, so it's OK.
> Best news today is Ghadamis. It used to be a mercenaries waypoint. I hope the rebels got the airport.
> Everyone in Tripoli today said there were strange activity at Mitiga
22.00
@ArmchairArab > Any take on this breaking news item? http://www.libyafeb17.com/?p=2930
@iyad_elbaghdadi > I got confirmation that there are deep divisions within Khweldi's unit. Someone said he has video footage of the incident.
22.00
@RickyTwotins > is there any footage of Tripoli planes bombing, firing on protesters, the aftermath etc?
@iyad_elbaghdadi > There may be but I didn't get any. Tripoli's wasn't bombing, it was aircraft-mounted gattling guns.
>OK, now I'm going to bed (and I'm serious this time). See you in the morning guys. Pray for Tripoli.
classicdish
Well-Known Member
How about this?
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Yeah but what does that article tell us. Rather than a force of mercs hired and organised by the state, it tells of poor migrant workers being thrown onto a plane. having a gun stuck in their hand and being told they will be shot if they don't fire at people. It sounds like a tale of crude abuse of powerless and desperate migrant labourers rather than of hired and organised mercenary armies.
This is an article about people trafficking more than mercenary hiring imo
dylans
overlord of all acorns
What a self serving wanker. This guy was foreign minister and supporter of the regime for at least ten years. A regime famous for it's "anti imperialist" rhetoric and now, to save his skin he is calling the regime he loyally served "fascist" and calling for those very same imperialist powers to intervene in his country. So for ten years he was a "fascist" and now the boat is sinking he condemns it. He deserves to be shot alongside Gadaffi.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
And on the subject of people who deserve to be shot, the Irish government recently approached Libya for a bailout, at least according to this Australian paper.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
With regards to any sort of protracted conflict the advantages are all with the rebels - they have the broders, the ports, the arifields and not least international support and blessing. I seriously doubt they will be short of funds, the US and Europe will be falling over themselves to fund the future custodians of libyas oil. They will also be providing the rebels with intellignece info whilst disrupting gaddaffis attempts to prop up his position abroud. I suspect much of this is already happening.
Gadaffi will have to fly in troops and supplies via the blackmarket into Tripoli - and as soon as the rebels get the their SAMs into position that becomes very difficult - and he has to pay for this stuff somehow.
A civil war would only be an option if Gaddaffi had some powerful international backers - but nobody is going to touch him now, he is toast.
The best option is that he is ousted quickly as his own side desert him and the people drag him from his compound - rather then allow cynical outside interests to get their grubby paws on Libya's revolution.
Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
There's chatter that Gadaffi's own tribe are considering withdrawing their support for him. So hopefully it may all end with a whimper rather than a bang in Tripoli (for Gaddafi). The remaining loyalists must now by thinking, Is there any point in dying for a lost cause?
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