“There is likely to be a significant advisory role for Qatar and probably prime investment opportunities for Qatar, should they choose to follow up on their courageous initial decision to stand against Qaddafi,” said David Roberts of the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Most intriguing perhaps is what Qatar, which hosts a US military base, might be hoping to achieve in the energy sector.
Libya is a major oil producer but had not yet engaged in large-scale natural gas exploration and development. Qatar is the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with the world’s third-largest gas reserves — the wealth that has transformed a state of only 1.7 million people into a major regional power.
Now Qatar will be on hand to influence the emergence of a potential new natural gas competitor, said an Arab writer familiar with Qatar.
“They won’t stop it but want to have a stake in what is done. They couldn’t have done that with Qaddafi, though the Emir was a personal friend,” the newspaper columnist said.
“Either the country will be torn apart in a protracted low-intensity conflict, in which case there won’t be any gas, or it settles down and the Libyans look at their gas reserves, in which case the Qataris will be there.”
Analyst Samuel Ciszuk of IHS Global Insight said Libya’s limited LNG facilities were in a bad state before the war, but saw potential for joint projects such as marketing Libya’s oil and gas.
“The Libyans now will have to focus on rebuilding, not on launching new projects, and Qatar can help with that. They can likely coordinate a lot of things together,” Ciszuk said.
Qatar’s forward position was evident in media coverage. Al Jazeera, the pan-Arab broadcaster described in US diplomatic cables as a “bargaining tool” in Qatari foreign policy, was among the first with images at each stage of the battle over Tripoli.
Qatar “appears to be becoming, and definitely want to be seen as, leaders of an Arab renaissance, rather than an Arab Spring,” said Nuseibeh.
“Now all the pieces are coming together, whether it’s political, economic or cultural.”
David Roberts of RUSI, one of a number of think tanks invited to open branches in Doha, said Qatar’s leaders had the right to bask in the success of their Libya decision given the risks it carried.
“One must never forget that this was a risky decision, for no one was at all certain that the rebel’s cause would lead ultimately to success and their failure would have had serious, likely security-related repercussions for Qatar,” he said.