Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

[butchersapron]

Should've built them houses the tight get.

 

[elbows]

Well you have kind of answered your own point. The opposition is broadly based around the TNC but the relationship between it and the myriad of militias and armed groups of varying degrees of autonomy is not homogenous. There are varying factions within what we call the opposition ranging from liberals, ex regime opportunists, monarchists, democrats, liberals, communists, regional separatists, and most importantly of all Islamists. They are united by their determination to overthrow Gaddafi (though even that unity is in question- it is interesting that factional purges, ie Younis, took place even before the regime was overthrown as opposed to after) The similarity here with the Northern Alliance is striking.

The important point here is that all these factions are not equal and there is not and cannot be the space for the expression of these differing factional positions, the kind of space that may allow for democratic governance, for one simple reason. That is that NATO has its own agenda and its own preferred blueprint for a post Gaddafi regime. NATO wants a puppet and it intends to get one, NATO wants a regime that is conducive to Western geopolitical interests and one committed to neo liberal economics. The TNC under Mustafa Abdul Jalil is NATOs choice and that is the price that Libya will pay for NATO intervention. It is this, the price that is being enacted by NATO that will kill any hope for democracy, not only that Libyans didn't do it for themselves but that precisely because they didn't they have already been excluded from the post Gaddafi future.

Yeah I sort of answered one of my own points, but I think your response is another demonstration of my broader point - the whole wanting to have it both ways thing.

I mean your hopeless version of Libya's future involves a range of contradictory possibilities. How can you talk with certainty about the bloody splits and fresh civil war that will erupt, and at the same time claim that NATO has the future of Libya all stitched up in puppet form?

Libyans are not excluded from their future, in some ways they have more tools for change available to them than we do right now. Yes, in many other ways things are heavily stacked against them, and we see the curse of oil on full display, but thats still no reason to be hopeless about it.

The many factions that have been involved with the opposition poses challenges, but it has a serious potential upside too. If they can hold it together than it can claim to represent quite a number of different aspects of Libya, and this will be a source of legitimacy for it. And it doesn't need to hold itself together for too long anyway, if things are stable enough for elections then they can attempt to take conflicts, rivalries and splits to that less overtly-bloody domain.

 

[dylans]

I mean your hopeless version of Libya's future involves a range of contradictory possibilities. How can you talk with certainty about the bloody splits and fresh civil war that will erupt, and at the same time claim that NATO has the future of Libya all stitched up in puppet form?

Because they are not the only actors. There are other factional interests who will challenge the TNC monopoly of power, In fact they already did last month when they assassinated General Younis. That act was an extraordinary indication of the tensions within the opposition. Factonal purges are by no means new to revolutions and civil wars but they usually take place AFTER a new regime takes power. The fact that Younis was assassinated BEFORE the rebels had even taken power is a sign of how deep those internal contradications are. I see a situation similar to Karzai's Afghanistan where an increasingly unpopular US supported regime is increasingly beset by factional conflict and increasingly reliant on repression to stay in power.Then it is a vicious circle, increased repression leads to increased unpopularity and increasingly empowers factional opposition forces which in turn is met with increased repression and round and round we go in an ever tightening circle.

 

[elbows]

So if NATO are not the only actors, then you agree that the Libyan people may yet have a voice, or rather multiple voices?

Younis was an interesting case, it may well fall into the familiar category that you describe. He was the most visible source of contention from the get-go, not helped by the way he ended up on the rebel side, and so his death was not quite as surprising as it may seem. The timing was more surprising, but then again by that point there were a number of indications that something was starting to happen, and I would guess that sometimes purges have happened early in the past, whilst the fog of conflict still provides some cover. We don't know what deals may have been done in recent weeks between any manner of regime figures, institutions, rebel factions, tribes, foreign nations. A plan has been followed this month, and we can't be sure quite who signed up to this script in advance, beyond the few obvious stars. Very intense psychological operations in this conflict to say the least!

Comparisons with other conflicts can be useful but its a bit easy to overstretch such comparisons. At this point we can only guess as to which similarities with Iraq and Afghanistan will actually occur in Libya, fewer than you suggest I reckon. For a start, there is quite a difference in scale, Libya's population is much smaller, and the neighbours count for quite a bit.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

if there is to be any trials of the Gadaffis then it should be in Libya - war crimes trials at the Hague are fucking drama farce. Look what happened with Milosevic

 

[dylans]

So if NATO are not the only actors, then you agree that the Libyan people may yet have a voice, or rather multiple voices?

I don't believe that a NATO installed regime will allow the democratic expression of such voices. NATO has an agenda of its own and it isn't democracy. It wants a compliant pro Western regime committed to neo liberalism that will guarantee Europe a cheap supply of oil and serve the Wests geo political interests in Africa and the Middle East. It wants a neo colonial peon in the North of Africa and it wants to redefine the Arab Spring in terms that suits Western interests.There is a well established method of guaranteeing these interests and it is the creation of compliant authoritarian regimes. Any challenge to that agenda, especially Islamist will be repressed. The likelihood then is that they will express themselves violently.

 

[elbows]

if there is to be any trials of the Gadaffis then it should be in Libya - war crimes trials at the Hague are fucking drama farce. Look what happened with Milosevic

Wherever it is it will be farcical on some level, you just takes your pick as to what flavour you want. The Hague stuff suits those looking for at least a superficial hint of balance when exercising victors justice, but tends to be rather drawn out and stuffy. The Milosevic trial was quite the example of it going pear shaped, the judge died before Milosevic.

Beyond the farcical aspects, a well done trial can still help a nation heal productively from the wounds of a dictator. It should have a deterrent effect too, but this has been misused by powerful groups of nations as part of their coercive threats to leaders who don't always play the game by their rules.

 

[teqniq]

Speaking of trials, presidential hopeful Mitt Romney is calling for Megrahi to be shipped to the States post-haste:

"The world is about to be rid of Muammar al-Qaddafi, the brutal tyrant who terrorized the Libyan people. It is my hope that Libya will now move toward a representative form of government that supports freedom, human rights, and the rule of law. As a first step, I call on this new government to arrest and extradite the mastermind behind the bombing of Pan Am 103, Abdelbaset Mohmed Ali al-Megrahi, so justice can finally be done," Romney said in a statement Monday.

Did no-one tell him about the dodgy evidence as furnished by the CIA? Upon reflection, probably playing to the gallery.

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/p...bya_government_hand_over_the_lockerbie_bomber

 

[likesfish]

Without a large presence on the ground NATO and the us have a limited ability to influence what goes on you can't install a puppet from 40000feet.
Bomb the crap out of anyone who decides an islamistyear zero seems like a good idea

 

[elbows]

I don't believe that a NATO installed regime will allow the democratic expression of such voices. NATO has an agenda of its own and it isn't democracy. It wants a compliant pro Western regime committed to neo liberalism that will guarantee Europe a cheap supply of oil and serve the Wests geo political interests in Africa and the Middle East. It wants a neo colonial peon in the North of Africa and it wants to redefine the Arab Spring in terms that suits Western interests.There is a well established method of guaranteeing these interests and it is the creation of compliant authoritarian regimes. Any challenge to that agenda, especially Islamist will be repressed. The likelihood then is that they will express themselves violently.

Yeah, but there are signs that they are trying to use the arab spring as an opportunity to make their partner regimes a bit more credible. I don't know how far they will take this idea, especially since in some countries we have seen how they did stuff to ensure the dictator regimes didn't fall at all. In other areas they may think that a change of face is enough. But as it suits some aspects of neoliberalism to have the sort of democratic freedoms that we enjoy in the west (substandard ones) in operation, there are likely some heads calling for a slightly more risky stance, where the old regimes are reformed a little more substantially, bring them closer to the same level of democratic veneer as we enjoy.

I don't find a huge amount of hope in this area, but there are nuggets here and there. If you want to watch a struggle against neo-liberalism, then the arab spring has only had a limited amount to offer. The regimes in question have tended to be recent converts to neo-liberalist policy, and so there is something to cheer about on this front when they fall. But their possible replacements have tended not to make economic principals central to the struggle, not yet anyways, the other forms of oppression have been for more obvious centrepiece of the struggle, and it will take a while for the economics to come to the fore, if its going to. Its there in Egypt, but it easily gets overshadowed by other factors.

If I want to put a hopeful spin on this stuff, in general rather than just in regards Libya, Id say the big struggle over economic direction is going to be a global thing, and that it will be the present systems failure to meet the needs of people that will lead to its downfall. Its ben wobbling for some years now, and we don't know how slow its potential death will be. The main event hasn't occurred yet, and in the meantime people can try to position themselves so as to be able to do something when this time comes about. Having a country that tolerates some dissent and the rights of people to organise is a good start, and so the fall of brutal dictatorships may yet prove very useful even if those that take power after them have serious flaws.

LikeI said, this is hopeful spin, I don't predict that things will actually turn out that way, and its depressing to think of all the struggles that have been fought without fruitful results. But once people have started, won't write it all off, even a 'failure' can have positive implications many years down the road.

 

[elbows]

Anyway, in my attempts to explain why I don't like to abandon all hope, I sound a bit too naive and positive than I actually am.

Returning to earth with a bump, here is a lot of timely detail about Libya's oil situation, including why its so important (light, sweet crude for a start, not the heavy muck that many places pump out these days).

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/23/b...e-for-access-to-libyas-oil-wealth-begins.html

Even before Libyan rebels could take full control of Tripoli, Foreign Minister Franco Frattini of Italy said on state television Monday that the Italian oil company Eni “will have a No. 1 role in the future” in the North African country.
Mr. Frattini even reported that Eni technicians were already on their way to eastern Libya to restart production. But Eni quickly denied that it had sent any personnel to the still-unsettled region, which is Italy’s largest source of imported oil.

“We don’t have a problem with Western countries like Italians, French and U.K. companies,” Abdeljalil Mayouf, a spokesman for the Libyan rebel oil company Agoco, was quoted as saying by Reuters. “But we may have some political issues with Russia, China and Brazil.”

Before fighting broke out in February, Libya exported 1.3 million barrels of oil a day. While that is less than 2 percent of world supplies, only Nigeria, Algeria and a few other countries can supply equivalent grades of sweet crude that many refineries around the world depend on.

Colonel Qaddafi proved to be a problematic partner for the international oil companies, frequently raising fees and taxes and making other demands. A new government with close ties to NATO may be an easier partner for Western nations to deal with. Some experts say that given a free hand, oil companies could find considerably more oil in Libya than they were able to locate under the restrictions placed by the Qaddafi government.

 

[weltweit]

I wonder if Gaddafi will surrender or fight till the last.

I think his best bet is to try to be tried at the Hague, that way he stays alive.

 

[elbows]

I found the last couple of BBC updates to be of interest:

2151:BBC Monitoring says the last remaining pro-Gaddafi TV station, Al-Urubah, could be broadcasting from Beirut. The only listing under that name is for Beirut-based Al-Urubah TV, the media arm of the Shia, anti-Iranian Arabic Islamic Council, it says.

2142:Kim Sengupta of Britain's Independent newspaper is in Tripoli near Green Square (renamed Martyrs' Square by the rebels). He tells the BBC World Service: "For the last five hours we had quite intense clashes which ended temporarily after air strikes - what sounded like helicopter gunships."

 

[Lock&Light]

if there is to be any trials of the Gadaffis then it should be in Libya - war crimes trials at the Hague are fucking drama farce. Look what happened with Milosevic

Don't like.

 

[Lock&Light]

Anyway, in my attempts to explain why I don't like to abandon all hope, I sound a bit too naive and positive than I actually am.

As an answer to total pessimism your reply hit the right note.

 

[Lock&Light]

I wonder if Gaddafi will surrender or fight till the last.

I think his best bet is to try to be tried at the Hague, that way he stays alive.

Should that happen you can expect Gadaffi to die in prison.

 

[weltweit]

Should that happen you can expect Gadaffi to die in prison.

But preferrable to hanging from a lampost by the neck I would have thought !!

 

[Lock&Light]

I am against the death penalty, but I'd find it difficult to blame the Libyians if they strung him up.

 

[elbows]

Would they use a green noose?

 

[Paulie Tandoori]

Should that happen you can expect Gadaffi to die in prison.

it's "Gaddafi" my love and they shouldn't execute him because that makes him a martyr and because that undermines the rule of law, if one believes in such concepts.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

So these arrests were stunts by the Gaddafis. Saif has 'escaped' now as well. All of it's probably faked by them. Grrr!

 

[Divisive Cotton]

maybe they captured a double? do things like that happen outside Hollywood movies?

 

[elbows]

Is it really a surprise that such things turned out not to be true? After all the times this has happened before in the last 6 months!

There are only a few things about Tripoli that we can be really sure about at the moment, and who has really been captured is not likely to be one of the things we can be at all confident about, not without visual evidence.

Bullshit, major psychological operations, fake it till you make it. And thats before we even begin to factor in any wacky antics of the regime.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

Perhaps now is the time to admit that I am really Saif al-Islam

 

[elbows]

Early indications based on twitter messages are that news that Saif was not captured, and has been talking to journalists, has shaken peoples faith to a greater extent than previous exposures of bullshit did. I guess the timing makes this sort of thing so much more sensitive now, and people may start to ask other questions about the true state of affairs in Tripoli.

 

[phildwyer]

I don't believe that a NATO installed regime will allow the democratic expression of such voices. NATO has an agenda of its own and it isn't democracy. It wants a compliant pro Western regime committed to neo liberalism that will guarantee Europe a cheap supply of oil and serve the Wests geo political interests in Africa and the Middle East. It wants a neo colonial peon in the North of Africa and it wants to redefine the Arab Spring in terms that suits Western interests.

The main thing it wants is no threat to Israel, no harboring of "terrorist" organizations dedicated to Israel's destruction. Peace with Israel is going to be a sine qua non for any middle eastern government from now on.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Photojournalist i know is holed up in the hotel where Gaddafi's son turned up last night. Sporadic shooting and not much to do!

 

[Divisive Cotton]

Is that the infamous Rixos hotel? I bet for a while the journalists were exciting that at last they'd be freed from their 5 star prison but they are still there

 

[Divisive Cotton]

Early indications based on twitter messages are that news that Saif was not captured, and has been talking to journalists, has shaken peoples faith to a greater extent than previous exposures of bullshit did.

I think more than anything is that it has produced a fundamental breach of trust between the media and what they are being told by the TNC. Any journalist worth their salt would have already been sceptical about that they were being fed by the TNC but now its the case that they won't be able to believe what they are told until they see if with their own eyes - which is difficult in a war zone

 

[likesfish]

its not the high fees the oil company's will miss they can just past them on no oil company's going bust anytime soon.
no even being a greedy corrupt tryant fairly standard partner.
its being unpredictable you have to pay staff more and shareholders and banks get nervous