Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

[elbows]

Wrong. Throwing their weight behind Gadaffi would have given a much quicker outcome and then the oil companies would only have had to deal with his family, not a populist government which may have all kinds of ideas about the oil resource. Gadaffi was a reliable partner for western oil.

There may well be some truth to this but I think its overstating the point. He may have been a relaible partner in some senses, but in others he was the sort of unpredictable leader that the established order does not relish dealing with.

In any case, the other arab spring events, and our desire to present an image where we are seen to be fighting on the side of the people, not crushing them, in at least one of these uprisings, came into effect. And much has been made of the rebels lack of capability to finish the job on their own, but if they had not made substantial gains to start with I don't know as we'd have found it so easy to get involved.

 

[Pickman's model]

At least the war is over.

dylans doesn't seem to think so given his posts yesterday evening on this thread

 

[elbows]

The TNC is not a populist government. It represents Benghazi and the opposition is riven by divisions and factionalism. There are already indications of distrust between Misrata and the TNC and we know there are strong Islamist factions within it. Anyone who thinks this is going to result in anything but factional disintegration and civil war is deluding themselves

Your crystal ball is a crusher of hope. This makes you a tool for forces I doubt you like.

 

[camouflage]

Well the libyans have a chance to sort there country out rather than a "revolution"
that consisted of one man one vote once.
Why do people make excuses for horrendous regimes
that are anti west?
Its not a zero sum game just because somebody doesn't like the west does not make them a good guy

That's not my position. Take Saddam for example.... clearly an out an out bastard. Then the Americans turned up and made the guy look like a staunch patriot caring only for the welfare of his people in comparison.

It's not that these rulers don't suck, they do certainly. It is that the West cares even less for their people than they do, which is seriously fucked up. This Libya thing is an opportunity and if you think the Libyans will have any say you're deluded. It'll be the Kosovo model, a crap new flag and a US airbase.

 

[Pickman's model]

Your crystal ball is a crusher of hope. This makes you a tool for forces I doubt you like.

it makes him a tool anyway

 

[camouflage]

dylans doesn't seem to think so given his posts yesterday evening on this thread

Well I do reckon the war is over. Not the killing though.

 

[elbows]

One thing the regime were good at was keeping the tv station on the air - its still managing to broadcast.

 

[Pickman's model]

Well I do reckon the war is over. Not the killing though.

so to quote gw bush, it's the end of major operations.

 

[camouflage]

so to quote gw bush, it's the end of major operations.

Clearly that means fuck all. Now the fireworks is out the way it's time to get down to the real business. First off.... Libya is probably now nicely indebted, debt is always an important step in these affairs.

Whatever the case economically speaking this is the beginning of major operations in Libya.

 

[dylans]

Clearly that means fuck all. Now the fireworks is out the way it's time to get down to the real business. First off.... Libya is probably now nicely indebted, debt is always an important step in these affairs.

Whatever the case economically speaking this is the beginning of major operations in Libya.

The western installed TNC regime will be extremely unstable and faction riven. It is going to unravel pretty quickly without western military support to prop it up. Mahmood Jibril is going to be Libya's Hamed Karzai

 

[elbows]

If the risk of in-fighting is a huge issue, will UN peacekeepers become an option thats soon to be on the table?

 

[Pickman's model]

Clearly that means fuck all. Now the fireworks is out the way it's time to get down to the real business. First off.... Libya is probably now nicely indebted, debt is always an important step in these affairs.

Whatever the case economically speaking this is the beginning of major operations in Libya.

as i've posted above, the eu's plans for north africa were temporarily derailed by gadaffi's reluctance to take part in the energy scheme. now that he's effectively out of the way and the new administration is beholden to nato countries - in particular france and the uk - the eu's plot should be back on track.

 

[dylans]

If the risk of in-fighting is a huge issue, will UN peacekeepers become an option thats soon to be on the table?

I think Western troops on the streets are a real possibility yes

 

[Pickman's model]

I think Western troops on the streets are a real possibility yes

i don't. what's the point? they've established air supremacy. they can do what they like.

 

[BlackArab]

I think Western troops on the streets are a real possibility yes

I see your point but I don't agree, who's troops for a start? Yanks won't because they have an election coming up and Obama's made it clear that he does not want to see more US troops dying in a Muslim country right now.
We are too over-stretched already, French & Italians have too much history in that region. Possibly non-Western troops under the UN flag if shit gets really bad for the civilians but the Libyans won't them IMO.

 

[dylans]

I see your point but I don't agree, who's troops for a start? Yanks won't because they have an election coming up and Obama's made it clear that he does not want to see more US troops dying in a Muslim country right now.
We are too over-stretched already, French & Italians have too much history in that region. Possibly non-Western troops under the UN flag if shit gets really bad for the civilians but the Libyans won't them IMO.

I can see a scenario develop in which NATO's installed government the TNC begins to unravel into factional division. In that situation it will rely on Western military force to stay in power. What form that military force will take is pure speculation of course. If the West can keep their puppet in power through air power alone then they will do so but what happens if air power alone is not enough. I don't believe the West will stand by and allow their puppet regime to fall to an Islamist insurgency.(this is the Afghan situation) In such a situation I can see troops on the ground. It could take the form of UN or Arab "peacekeepers or special forces or NATO ground troops.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

The western installed TNC regime will be extremely unstable and faction riven. It is going to unravel pretty quickly without western military support to prop it up. Mahmood Jibril is going to be Libya's Hamed Karzai

lets face it dylans your track record on predictions on this thread hasn't exactly been very accurate- in fact, you have been mostly wrong

 

[dylans]

lets face it dylans your track record on predictions on this thread hasn't exactly been very accurate- in fact, you have been mostly wrong

You will eat those words soon my friend. Lets wait and see where your much celebrated democracy is in 6 months time when your precious TNC government is facing an Islamist insurgency. No doubt you will be calling for NATOs "help" again. Either way you are lying to yourself if you think the opposition is anything but faction riven and deeply divided

 

[Divisive Cotton]

The worst aspect of this is that it will encourage the bastards - Tony Blair dined out on Sierra Leone for ten years.

 

[likesfish]

probably is what should have happened after OP granby Gulf war war 1 carry on with the air strikes till the shia took Saddam down.
would still have been a mess psychopathic regimes doesn't tend to bode well for the losers but the Wests hands would be cleaner probably 200000 dead instead of a millionish
Gaddafi was a scum bag but more a bespoke killer than an industrial scale murder merchant

 

[Pickman's model]

probably is what should have happened after OP granby Gulf war war 1 carry on with the air strikes till the shia took Saddam down.
would still have been a mess psychopathic regimes doesn't tend to bode well for the losers but the Wests hands would be cleaner probably 200000 dead instead of a millionish
Gaddafi was a scum bag but more a bespoke killer than an industrial scale murder merchant

and obviously the british and american regimes aren't psychopathic.

 

[Pickman's model]

lets face it dylans your track record on predictions on this thread hasn't exactly been very accurate- in fact, you have been mostly wrong

less mystic meg than deluded dylans

 

[Divisive Cotton]

it's interesting in Tripoli that the first areas to overthrow Gadaffi were the poorest, industrial areas while the only areas holding out now are the wealthy areas - what does that tell you about the nature of Gadaffi's regime?

 

[Pickman's model]

it's interesting in Tripoli that the first areas to overthrow Gadaffi were the poorest, industrial areas while the only areas holding out now are the wealthy areas - what does that tell you about the nature of Gadaffi's regime?

that his mates became rich and everyone became poor?

 

[Divisive Cotton]

i reckon

 

[dylans]

Article here in the Guardian which agrees with my Afghanistan analogy. Obviously someone else is as "deluded" and "pessimistic" as me

Under pressure from the powerful Obeidi tribe, to whom Younis's family belong, as well as from the February 17 Coalition (a group of legal professionals who are concerned about the growing influence of the Islamists), TNC chair, Abdel Mustafa Jalil, sacked the entire cabinet last week with the exception of the prime minister, Mahmoud Jibril.
The move was also intended to assuage mounting alarm among the TNC's western backers. While the leaders of the US, Britain and France were aware of an Islamist element within the rebel forces, they thought it was containable. The worry now is that it will prevail in a full-blown civil (and tribal) conflict between the secular rebels and Islamist groups, some of whom have close ties to al-Qaida...
..
Libya is in danger of ending up with a Nato-backed, weak and undemocratic central government led by a compliant president besieged by Islamist militants. Just like Afghanistan.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/17/libya-the-next-afghanistan

 

[butchersapron]

They got the tv NOW.

 

[lizzieloo]

Was about to say the same thing

Libyan state TV goes off air, rebel spokesman says state TV HQ is now under rebel control

Reuters

 

[danny la rouge]

They got the tv NOW.

Yup:

1452: BBC Monitoring confirms that state TV is off air - the screens went blank a few minutes ago.

 

[lizzieloo]

This link has updates from a fair few sources including tweeters in Rixos, updates automatically.