Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

[weltweit]

So it seems Gaddafi's loyal troops may have melted away.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

yes, but then so did I and many others who've spent the last 6 months pointing out the differences between the 2 situations to you.

There are no foreign invaders on the ground here for people to fight against for a start.

He's made some very good posts in this thread, but dylans persists with his comparison of today's Libya with 2003 Iraq. Terrible. Facile at best really.

In any case, the destruction and sectarian breakup of Iraq was far from a pre-determined fate, and took a lot 'doing', shall we say . . . Anyway, there is no predetermined course of events, contingent as the future is.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

Twitter reckons that Gaddafi was just speaking on the phone to AlJazeera Arabic, he said his house was surrounded by rebels but they told him he would be ok if he stayed put. Then he said a prayer and the sound of gunshots could be heard in the background.

Mohammed Gaddafi, his son.

I just heard it. His house was surrounded. Gunshots fired outside, followed by sounds entering the house. Phone goes dead.

A spokesman was on Libya Free TV following the call to implore people not to carry out such killing. He also pointed out that Mohammad had already contacted the NTC days earlier, had been cooperating with them (the NTC has numerous other regime figures/members of the government which it has told to stay in Tripoli and supply intelligence, precisely why Saif was caught).

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

_

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

Someone suggesting it could be some stunt [rumor rating: 15%; unlikely, plausible].

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

Update: the shots came from Mohammad's guards.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

Bab al-Zizziya still swinging. This is the cult dying with its leader, then?

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

Mohammad Gaddafi is just fine, but the people outside are asking him to surrender still. Maybe he wants to but the guards won't let him.

 

[elbows]

I caught the end of his 2nd interview live, it also seemed to end in gunfire. Or I'm confused and it was a repeat of the first call.

Either way, I think I will give up on trying to learn anything further tonight and go to bed.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

Guards shot some people outside. Mohammad is inside, but he'd better surrender himself. It could be he's trapped or all that stuff he said is a lie.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

Mustafa Jalil actually said he'll resign if he's revenged-killed, or if there are any such attacks. Muslims aren't supposed to do that kind of thing etc..

 

[free spirit]

Guards shot some people outside. Mohammad is inside, but he'd better surrender himself. It could be trapped or all that stuff he said is a lie.

dumb fuckers. Could have got out alive, will now probably not see dawn.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

The NTC's message is pretty strong on this, but yeah, you might be right.

 

[sunny jim]

Al-Jazerra is calling Libya the kingdom of Libya. So was this a royalist revolt? The rebels also use the old royalist flag. So much for the popular revolution then.

 

[sunny jim]

This is Al-Jazerra on facebook

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

This again! . . .

The green, red and black flag was the first flag of Libya, having stood since its withdrawal a reminder of better times; it has more identity, it looks like a flag and is more respectable than a plain green rectangle - to most people. I actually like the plain green rectangle but Gaddafi introduced it and therefore it's a symbol of his rule too. Making the old flag the obvious choice for opposition to rally around.

Article on Al-Jazeera. 'What's in a flag?':
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/libya/2011/02/2011224123588553.html

 

[friedaweed]

Poor Cameron has to cut short another holiday to return to the oil monopoly game to take his turn Do not stay in Cornwall, do not collect £200.

 

[sunny jim]

@ Ibn A reminder of better times? Are you having a bubble? When 80% of the population couldnt read or write? And lived in abject poverty? And was in the pocket of western powers. Al Jazerra is also run by a royal family - maybe thats why they were so quick to call Libya a kingdom. Maybe a bit too quick. ps oil has just gone down in price. Is that because the west is going to get some from Libya cheaper than before? If you're Libyan you should have more respect for yourself and your country.

 

[TomUS]

Hugo & Mahmoud must be unhappy today.

Caracas. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have denounced the West's "imperialist aggression" in Libya and Syria, the foreign ministry in Caracas said Tuesday, AFP reported.
The statement by the two arch US foes comes amid a NATO air bombing campaign in Libya where rebels are seeking to oust strongman Moamer Kadhafi, and growing pressure from the West for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step aside.

http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n257239

 

[sunny jim]

Oooh look, here's the Crown Prince of Libya meeting with western powers. Talking about who's going to run the place, maybe?
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/exiled-libyan-crown-prince-sees-gaddafi-toppled-soon-415894.html
Its all looking quite royalist now isnt it? Popular revolution my arse!

 

[TomUS]

Oooh look, here's the Crown Prince of Libya meeting with western powers. Talking about who's going to run the place, maybe?
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/exiled-libyan-crown-prince-sees-gaddafi-toppled-soon-415894.html
Its all looking quite royalist now isnt it? Popular revolution my arse!

I don't think he expects to do a shah of Iran type comeback. But I suppose he has fantasies. I really don't know how active he was in getting the uprising going but it seemed it had little to do with an old royal family. They are just getting rid of a more recent one.

 

[London_Calling]

Hugo & Mahmoud must be unhappy today.

Interesting alliance you've formed there.

 

[likesfish]

anyone want to buy a copy of the green book only dropped once

 

[TomUS]

Interesting alliance you've formed there.

They formed it. This was an announcement by the Chavez gov about a phone call between Chavez & Achman.

 

[dylans]

yes, but then so did I and many others who've spent the last 6 months pointing out the differences between the 2 situations to you.

There are no foreign invaders on the ground here for people to fight against for a start.

The West has just engineered regime change in order to install its own puppet government. Of course its the same. I'm just waiting for Cameron to announce "mission accomplished" .

And in 6 months time (if that) when a weak, divided and fractured puppet government is battling an Islamist insurgency and has abandoned all pretence at democracy we will see what western enforced ""democracy" looks like.

 

[elbows]

ps oil has just gone down in price. Is that because the west is going to get some from Libya cheaper than before?

lol, thats not how it works.

The oil price does not reflect how cheaply we will get Libya's oil in future. It reflects the hope that the conflict is near an end, and that 1.6 million barrels per day of oil may soon again be available from Libya.

Maintaining secure supply of precious oil at a time where there is not a very comfortable gap between supply and demand is certainly one big reason why intervention in Libya was taken. And companies involved will certainly be looking for a great deal now, one which will likely cause the people of Libya to lose out. But todays oil price is about availability of oil, not what price it will be available for.

 

[ferrelhadley]

lol, thats not how it works.

The oil price does not reflect how cheaply we will get Libya's oil in future. It reflects the hope that the conflict is near an end, and that 1.6 million barrels per day of oil may soon again be available from Libya.

Maintaining secure supply of precious oil at a time where there is not a very comfortable gap between supply and demand is certainly one big reason why intervention in Libya was taken. And companies involved will certainly be looking for a great deal now, one which will likely cause the people of Libya to lose out. But todays oil price is about availability of oil, not what price it will be available for.

Wrong. Throwing their weight behind Gadaffi would have given a much quicker outcome and then the oil companies would only have had to deal with his family, not a populist government which may have all kinds of ideas about the oil resource. Gadaffi was a reliable partner for western oil.

 

[dylans]

Wrong. Throwing their weight behind Gadaffi would have given a much quicker outcome and then the oil companies would only have had to deal with his family, not a populist government which may have all kinds of ideas about the oil resource. Gadaffi was a reliable partner for western oil.

The TNC is not a populist government. It represents Benghazi and the opposition is riven by divisions and factionalism. There are already indications of distrust between Misrata and the TNC and we know there are strong Islamist factions within it. Anyone who thinks this is going to result in anything but factional disintegration and civil war is deluding themselves

The rebel group is not a cohesive assemblage, but made of disparate factions. The main rebel group, based in Benghazi in the country’s east, consists of former government ministers who have defected, and longstanding opposition figures, representing a range of political views including Arab nationalists, Islamists, secularists, socialists and businessmen. Their military forces are a hodge-podge of armed groups, former soldiers and freelance militias, including amateur neighborhood gangs and former members of an Islamist guerrilla group crushed by Gaddafi in the 1990s.

For if Gaddafi proved too weak to stay in power, this does not mean that the rebels have overwhelming strength. They were saved from defeat last March by Nato aircraft striking at Gaddafi's armour as it advanced on Benghazi. They are entering Tripoli now only because they have received tactical air support from Nato.
It is an extraordinary situation. The Transitional National Council (TNC) in Benghazi is now recognised by more than 30 foreign governments, including the US and Britain, as the government of Libya. But it is by no means clear that it is recognised as such by the rebel militiamen who are in the process of seizing the capital. The rebel fighters in Misrata, who fought so long to defend their city, say privately that they have no intention of obeying orders from the TNC. Their intransigence may not last but it is one sign that the insurgents are deeply divided

http://news.antiwar.com/2011/08/21/imperial-hubris-in-post-gadhafi-libya/

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-euphoria-the-rebels-are-divided-2341792.html

 

[camouflage]

The West has just engineered regime change in order to install its own puppet government. Of course its the same. I'm just waiting for Cameron to announce "mission accomplished" .

And in 6 months time (if that) when a weak, divided and fractured puppet government is battling an Islamist insurgency and has abandoned all pretence at democracy we will see what western enforced ""democracy" looks like.

Neoliberal puppet to preside over growing unemployment, falling standard of living, increasing rising intertribal tensions, persecution of black Libyans and Africans, fire-sale of national assets, a new elite of corrupt officials and associates and a new wave of money washing off to Swiss bank accounts. Don't be surprised how much worse the 'usual suspects' can make life than even a bastard like Gaddafi (as with Saddam) in a situation they will label a democracy.

I think it was the Pan-Am guy that did it, I guess the US considered his release a seriously unforgivable insult. Next stop for him.... Cuba probably. Meanwhile France an Britain can administer the feast.

At least the war is over.

 

[likesfish]

Well the libyans have a chance to sort there country out rather than a "revolution"
that consisted of one man one vote once.
Why do people make excuses for horrendous regimes
that are anti west?
Its not a zero sum game just because somebody doesn't like the west does not make them a good guy