butchersapron
Bring back hanging
4m to go. Where are they?
Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement
- Thread starter ernestolynch
- Start date
Ibn Khaldoun
the present is dead, long live the future . . .
They stayed in Tripoli.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Other countries - pressure, you're gone too, Start negotiating. Assad you lost tonight.
Ibn Khaldoun
the present is dead, long live the future . . .
Donkey might be underground somewhere. If he wants to escape, though, it's a tad late. Or he has crazy tunnels down there. . .
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Did they? There's some honour if they did, but these people do not have honour.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
I hope Assad is watching this. Hopefully he'll be gone before Eid, as well.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
The secret history of a city - the shit that people have done for the last 6 months.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
How is tripoli organisng now it's out on the open - i know it's too early to say, but please self-organising stuff, post them up. Whose leading them who funding it etc
Ibn Khaldoun
the present is dead, long live the future . . .
True. Dunno what chance they've got though. I mean, he's going to die. And some of his close-by like Nasser al-Mabrouk Abdullah earlier have blood on their hands too. At least two decades of it.
They've got places to go, even the southern desert.
Ibn Khaldoun
the present is dead, long live the future . . .
At the moment they're celebrating. But I'm not there am I, otherwise I wouldn't be posting!
Ibn Khaldoun
the present is dead, long live the future . . .
Good idea.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
Their fear of Gaddafi must be less than their fear of the rebels. Hopefully that's a sign that few have any real stomach for a fight to the death to defend the mad old twat.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
The rebel forces are a weak, deeply divided and fractured coalition made up of over 30 semi autonomous militias and riven with ideological, personal and clan divisions and united only by their opposition to Gaddafi. There are two broad groups, Libyan Transitional Council, NATO's favourite, led by Mahmood Jibril and the Abu Obeida al-Jarrah Brigade (responsible for killing Younis last month). We can expect Jibril to be placed on the head of the post Gaddafi regime with NATO's blessing alongside empty phrases of democracy by Western countries as they line up to rape Libyas oil. We can also expect the new regime to be quickly beset by faction fighting and to increasingly be reliant on NATO support for survival as Islamist factions move against it. Welcome to the new Libya.
not-bono-ever
meh
so wheres Kadaffi off to then ?
Unlikely Saudi - maybe France ?
Unlikely Saudi - maybe France ?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Last offer save us or AQ will win. (tv thing)
Game over. Defend yourself libyan w/c
Game over. Defend yourself libyan w/c
elbows
Well-Known Member
I was wondering what your get-out clause would be should Tripoli not take long to fall.
Much of your analysis is very good, but I think this year you have been too gloomy on a number of occasions. In Egypt there were moments when you seemed pretty sure the army, police or thugs were about to brutally crush the protesters, yet somehow it didn't quite happen that way.
Blind optimism should not be completely isolated from more sober analysis at times like these, simply because many of those who are waging the struggle may have a lot of blind optimism, hope & belief that they will succeed in the end, and that can go a long way, no matter the smelly realities.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
Moussa Ibrahim's desperate speechifying is reminiscent of Mohammed Al-Sahhaf in Iraq in 2003!
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
How did the rebels capture Saif so quickly? I thought he was the leader in waiting from the Gaddafi clan.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
I must admit I am quite surprised that the regime has fallen so suddenly. I expected Tripoli to put up a fight. I did say however that there was a possibility that the regime could simply collapse. Let's remember that this regime has been under constant attack by the air power of the most powerful military on earth for 5 months. It's armed forces and infrastructure have been decimated. This is not a revolution. It's foreign engineered regime change
I actually agree with Musa's speech a few minutes ago when he said that there was going to be a bloodbath. I think this is the lull before the storm and I remain very pessimistic about the future of Libya
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
At least it's not Rumsfeld calling the shots like he did in Afghanistan and Iraq. Maybe the Libyans have a better chance to rebuild their country with a new system. I hope so.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
The TNC are keen to present the opposition as unified, secular and democratic but the truth is they are riven with factionalism and include a very strong Islamist element. I predict an Afghanistan type situation with a weak and divided pro Western government surrounded by Islamist factional opposition and increasingly reliant on Western support to stay in power.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
It's nothing like Afghanistan. There's no Taliban, there's no Pakistan next door providing constant support and weapons to the Taliban. Totally different situation.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
also, the new government will have no shortage of it's own money both from the release of libyan government funds, and from libyan oil revenues, so will not be reliant on US financial support, and won't then be left twisting in the wind like the Afghan's were when the US pulled all it's funding immediately after the soviet withdrawal.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
There is a Taliban. They are called the Abu Obeida al-Jarrah Brigade and they even include several former inmates of Guantanamo. They are the second largest faction in the opposition and are the people responsible for assassinating General Younis last month. True, there is no Pakistan next door (though I dispute that Pakistan is supplying weapons to the Taliban). Neither is it a destroyed country like Afghanistan, nevertheless it is a tribally and regionally divided country (like Afghanistan). with a future government that will have to deal with those divisions and like Afghanistan has the potential to explode into tribal and ideological factionalism. Like Afghanistan a government is being installed by the West who have chosen one side in a civil war. (in Afghanistan it was the Northern Alliance) Like Afghanistan the rebel forces were losing until Western firepower propelled them to power. Like Afghanistan, the regime installed is deeply divided along tribal and ideological lines. Finally, like Afghanistan, the West rushed into an ill concieved open ended conflict with little understanding of the nature of the country. The analogy is limited, I accept, nevertheless there are enough similarities to serve as a warning for the future.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
Come on, it's well-known that the ISI has been looking after the Taliban for years. Anyway, Libya is far more similar to Egypt than Afghanistan. And Algeria. There are difficult times ahead, but I'm far more optimistic about Libya's chances than Iraq and Afghanistan.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Libya is heading for civil war. We will see who is right
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