Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[brogdale]

We'd hire it from Gunboats-Я-Us (Russian-owned obvs)

"We" meaning that the UK state's Naval military would contact their outsourced procurement service provider to deal with their outsourced brokers who would speak with the outsourced marketing department of the Panama based shell company......

 

[TopCat]

I strongly suspect that if anything at all akin to Soubry's treatment was meted out to the Queen, we wouldn't need to be relying on your memory for evidence to compare the two.

Ian Bone got within gobbing distance to the Queen and cunted her off at length. She deffo heard the abuse.

 

[Pickman's model]

I strongly suspect that if anything at all akin to Soubry's treatment was meted out to the Queen, we wouldn't need to be relying on your memory for evidence to compare the two.

Ah, you're like editor, very keen to believe that reporters are everywhere and everything newsworthy is reported.

 

[mojo pixy]

"We" meaning that the UK state's Naval military would contact their outsourced procurement service provider to deal with their outsourced brokers who would speak with the outsourced marketing department of the Panama based shell company......

Quite so, it was the royal We

 

[Wookey]

Ian Bone got within gobbing distance to the Queen and cunted her off at length. She deffo heard the abuse.

Not sure a shouty septogenatian with Parkies and a walking stick is quite on a par with these much louder, much bigger, much younger men who gathered in numbers to target these MPs and journos.

And if Bone had spat at the Queen, he would havr been arrested and charged with assault as that's against the law, the same as causing fear distress to Soubry would be against the law.

Harassment laws have been woefully misused since the 80s...this would at last be a justifiable use of it.

 

[butchersapron]

The bristol event was rather more lively than the crap this outrage is about and aimed at rather a higher value target.

 

[Wookey]

Ah, you're like editor, very keen to believe that reporters are everywhere and everything newsworthy is reported.

No, I'm keen to fulfil the comparison you made, but I can't because the assault on the Queen remains only in your memory it seems.

And if you did see this happen and the person assaulting the Queen wasn't arrested, that doesn't mean these clowns shouldn't be arrested either.

 

[Pickman's model]

No, I'm keen to fulfil the comparison you made, but I can't because the assault on the Queen remains only in your memory it seems.

And if you did see this happen and the person assaulting the Queen wasn't arrested, that doesn't mean these clowns shouldn't be arrested either.

you don't like comparing like with like do you. A statement, not a question

 

[Wookey]

you don't like comparing like with like do you. A statement, not a question

Is your heart really in this?

 

[Pickman's model]

Is your heart really in this?

I was trying to say politely that you're being very dishonest. I say abuse hurled. You say assault. Do you know the difference between shouting at someone and hitting them? You don't seem to.

 

[Kaka Tim]

where is the evidence that May's deal will go through?

there were over 100 mps prepared to vote agasint it last time - has any publically changed their minds? May has - as everyone predicted - got absolutely fuck all from the EU other than some warm words - so nothing has changed since last time when the bill got pulled.
The DUP and the mogladytes wont budge - their is no benefit in it for them. The DUP will do nothing without specific legal guarantees on the back stop - which will not happen. The brexiteers hate mays deal and rejecting it opens the door to "no deal" or "no brexit" with them in the role of defending the people's will to the last (as opposed to vacillating enablers of EU "vasselage" which many have said is worse than staying in anyway).
Remainer MPs see rejecting the deal as a route to a 2nd ref, a50 being revoked or some sort of very soft brexit.

 

[tim]

Ian Bone got within gobbing distance to the Queen and cunted her off at length. She deffo heard the abuse.

Yes, but Bone is a national treasure and HMQ would be offended if he didn't abuse her. For her it's just another ritual, like being woken up by bagpipes.

 

[Teaboy]

where is the evidence that May's deal will go through?

There isn't any.

That being said I can still so it going along the lines of what Fox and Rudd have been suggesting that a series of votes on the different issues might manage to scrape it across the line, so a version of May's deal. Clearly as it stands its dead in the water but how dead will depend on how big the loss is. It seems that the figure of 100+ is being bandied around as a bad loss, but anything under 80 may lead to the series of votes as suggested.

Fuck knows, its all guess work.

 

[Winot]

where is the evidence that May's deal will go through?

there were over 100 mps prepared to vote agasint it last time - has any publically changed their minds? May has - as everyone predicted - got absolutely fuck all from the EU other than some warm words - so nothing has changed since last time when the bill got pulled.
The DUP and the mogladytes wont budge - their is no benefit in it for them. The DUP will do nothing without specific legal guarantees on the back stop - which will not happen. The brexiteers hate mays deal and rejecting it opens the door to "no deal" or "no brexit" with them in the role of defending the people's will to the last (as opposed to vacillating enablers of EU "vasselage" which many have said is worse than staying in anyway).
Remainer MPs see rejecting the deal as a route to a 2nd ref, a50 being revoked or some sort of very soft brexit.

There’s no evidence, and it looks likely to be rejected at first. However when the wobblers stare into the abyss of no deal or no Brexit, I imagine many will wobble. Who knows.

 

[killer b]

It won't pass this time - my guess is though that eventually - perhaps after a change of red lines, a change of leadership, an extension of A50 or even a change of government - what will eventually pass will be something not too far from May's deal.

 

[Kaka Tim]

It won't pass this time - my guess is though that eventually - perhaps after a change of red lines, a change of leadership, an extension of A50 or even a change of government - what will eventually pass will be something not too far from May's deal.

they cant extend A50 without the agreement of the EU27 - and they only agree to that if theres going to be a general election, a 2nd ref or a change of government - they wont do it just to allow may more time to get absolutely nowhere.

 

[killer b]

I know.

 

[Teaboy]

What other route out of this impasse is there?

 

[killer b]

What other route out of this impasse is there?

Seems to have been a few people talking up the EEA route recently, which could feasibly pull in a lot of the remain lot as a last resort against no deal.

 

[killer b]

I think the suggestion is may's deal + membership of the EEA - I reckon that's the most likely route, or something along those lines.

 

[Teaboy]

I think the suggestion is may's deal + membership of the EEA - I reckon that's the most likely route, or something along those lines.

I can see that. I suspect Labour under Corbyn would probably go along with that, or at least enough of them. Like you suggest though it would probably take a fundamental change at the top for it to happen, red lines and all that.

 

[killer b]

This pamphlet from the cross-party Norway Plus group (chaired by Stephen Kinnock and Nick Boles lol) outlines their proposals. It's quite boring so I haven't read the whole thing, but despite it's authors from what I've read I think it's the closest to something that could work (and can get anything close to a majority) that I've yet seen.

 

[SpookyFrank]

What other route out of this impasse is there?

Invade Belgium.

 

[Raheem]

I think the suggestion is may's deal + membership of the EEA - I reckon that's the most likely route, or something along those lines.

Not sure May's deal + EEA membership makes sense. You can have one or the other, a bit like veganism and pigs in blankets.

 

[Wookey]

I was trying to say politely that you're being very dishonest. I say abuse hurled. You say assault. Do you know the difference between shouting at someone and hitting them? You don't seem to.

You don't need to physically strike someone to be charged with assault, it would be enough to cause a person to apprehend the imminent use of unlawful violence. But that is legalistic nit-picking anyway and doesn't further this debate a jot.

 

[brogdale]

Back to bizarro world. Then again I suppose it's worth a try and everything else is failing. Instead of taking the deal with the EU to parliament take parliament's deal to the EU. I doubt it'll work but its desperation all round now.

May loyalist Hugo Swire admits that his proposed amendment is merely performative.



Clown-car government.

 

[mauvais]

This pamphlet from the cross-party Norway Plus group (chaired by Stephen Kinnock and Nick Boles lol) outlines their proposals. It's quite boring so I haven't read the whole thing, but despite it's authors from what I've read I think it's the closest to something that could work (and can get anything close to a majority) that I've yet seen.

Apart from the problem of, you know, Norway.

Norwegian politicians reject UK's Norway-plus Brexit plan

(I don't know how significant the criticism is, tbf)

 

[Pickman's model]

You don't need to physically strike someone to be charged with assault, it would be enough to cause a person to apprehend the imminent use of unlawful violence. But that is legalistic nit-picking anyway and doesn't further this debate a jot.

There's nothing you like better than legalistic nit-picking unless it's liberal drivelling

 

[free spirit]

Seems to have been a few people talking up the EEA route recently, which could feasibly pull in a lot of the remain lot as a last resort against no deal.

The problem with this being that the EEA is based on an agreement between the EU and EFTA, so the UK would need agreement of both the EU and EFTA to join the EEA seperately from the EU.

Norway's Prime Minister has very clearly rejected the idea at least of the UK joining EFTA and I think that went as far as the UK joining the EEA, because the UK would just mess everything up for them (or words to that effect).

This would also mean accepting free movement of people, and paying into the EU budget (probably more than currently as we'd likely lose our current rebate), while losing our current level of input into the rules we'd have to obey, and there's a fair chunk of hard brexit supporters who'd prefer us to remain in the EU than take this route.

Could happen I guess, but would likely take a lot of persuasion for the EFTA countries to agree to it, and I'm not sure what we've got to persuade them with.

 

[killer b]

I know it's a route which has problems - just strikes me the least problematic one, and the one most likely to command a majority in the commons.

And it'll still be a shitshow after whatever happens. Whoop.