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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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No deal is going to be realpolitik political suicide for whoever is in charge, despite the likes of Johnson stirring this as - the brexit we voted for trope -from the sidelines .
 
The Tory filth do have a penchant for all or nothing gambling options - kinda undermines the lie that they are the sensible safe hands of administration.


I used to play “ turn of a card for money” when drunk with my mates in the old days - no skill or tactics, highest card drawn wins the pot. It always ended badly
 
Not enough time to negotiate a new deal or hold a second referendum, so it becomes a choice between no deal or no Brexit.
Theres time for a norwayesque free movement deal as nothing much changes.


No deal is going to be realpolitik political suicide for whoever is in charge, despite the likes of Johnson stirring this as - the brexit we voted for trope -from the sidelines .
BJ has a proven record of backing a Brexit outcome he hopes doesnt acutally come to pass - I think he's doubled down on that bet thinking SURELY this time it won't go through...allows him to play to the party membership nicely
 
So what would the preferred outcome of these 'people advising May' which they think can be better achieved by losing the vote later?

I agree that there is more chance of either no deal or no Brexit, but surely the danger is that they get the option they're least keen on rather than the one they'd prefer.

I would assume they would mostly prefer no Brexit.
 
I'dd be very surprised if May didn't have something up her sleeve re the Backstop to be revealed prior to the vote taking place.

Whether this will be enough to swing the vote in her favour is quite another matter but with an aggressive whipping/wining-and-dining operation designed to peel off any waverers I reckon it will be closer than may people think.

As a matter of interest I had a brief chat with a Labour MP over Xmas.

I asked him what he thinks will happen and he said he's absolutely no idea except that there is a large number of Tory MPs who actively want a "no-deal" exit and so are immune to threats or promises of promotion etc - so who knows.
 
I'dd be very surprised if May didn't have something up her sleeve re the Backstop to be revealed prior to the vote taking place.

Whether this will be enough to swing the vote in her favour is quite another matter but with an aggressive whipping/wining-and-dining operation designed to peel off any waverers I reckon it will be closer than may people think.

As a matter of interest I had a brief chat with a Labour MP over Xmas.

I asked him what he thinks will happen and he said he's absolutely no idea except that there is a large number of Tory MPs who actively want a "no-deal" exit and so are immune to threats or promises of promotion etc - so who knows.

i take the opposite view - i don't think there's anything left in the EU's concessions box, i think May knows that, and i think that unlike many other politicians, she understands the rabbit hole of dangers that would be opened up by holding a referendum and then effectively discarding the result because its one the overwhelming majority of the political class dislike. its also pretty clear that May isn't someone is does, or is any good at, the shmoozing and whipping stuff.

i'd put much more money on a no-deal brexit than i would a postponement - i don't think Labour will really attempt to force a postponement, they will prefer to make political hay from the fall out, and Corbyn isn't a fan of the EU anyway. there will be some LD whining, some ardently remain Tory and Labour shreiking and howling, but in the end i think that the UK will just fall out of the EU on the 29th March..
 
I'dd be very surprised if May didn't have something up her sleeve re the Backstop to be revealed prior to the vote taking place.

Whether this will be enough to swing the vote in her favour is quite another matter but with an aggressive whipping/wining-and-dining operation designed to peel off any waverers I reckon it will be closer than may people think.

As a matter of interest I had a brief chat with a Labour MP over Xmas.

I asked him what he thinks will happen and he said he's absolutely no idea except that there is a large number of Tory MPs who actively want a "no-deal" exit and so are immune to threats or promises of promotion etc - so who knows.

That is the one remaining mystery about Theresa May; that she can get so many people to apparently believe that there must be some grand scheme behind all this rather than the live action version of Sideshow Bob and the rakes.
 
That is the one remaining mystery about Theresa May; that she can get so many people to apparently believe that there must be some grand scheme behind all this rather than the live action version of Sideshow Bob and the rakes.
I will possibly give her some credit for calling the election in 2017. At the time I thought it smacked of hubris, but I will now consider the idea that she had the foresight to see that a majority of 12 would never be enough to push through the kind of deal she knew she was going to get, but a majority of 50+ might. It's been a slow-motion car crash since the moment the exit polls were reported.
 
you post made it sound like people here were defending soubry. it helps if you say who you're having a pop at, if you say

Except a) it said 'sections of the left' and b) if I wanted to have a pop at someone on here I would have quoted their post.

Anyway, back to the point - how and why have sections of the left found themselves in a position where they have to defend scum like Soubry?
 
Except a) it said 'sections of the left' and b) if I wanted to have a pop at someone on here I would have quoted their post.

Anyway, back to the point - how and why have sections of the left found themselves in a position where they have to defend scum like Soubry?
which sections of the left do you mean?
 
i take the opposite view - i don't think there's anything left in the EU's concessions box, i think May knows that, and i think that unlike many other politicians, she understands the rabbit hole of dangers that would be opened up by holding a referendum and then effectively discarding the result because its one the overwhelming majority of the political class dislike. its also pretty clear that May isn't someone is does, or is any good at, the shmoozing and whipping stuff.

I don’t think they’ll be a major concession by the EU but a form of words on the Backstop that could be of help to May.

I guess the whips know the vote is going to be lost and will be focusing their efforts on cutting the margin of defeat to a bare minimum to avoid humiliating May (reducing her diminished authority even more) while at the same time giving her a better chance of getting her deal through on a second , or even third, vote.

However I think many Brexiteers will not vote for this deal under any circumstances as they simply don’t want a deal – any deal.

For them the NI border issue is just a fig-leaf to justify their opposition because they think that leaving without a deal increases the chances of the UK becoming like Singapore, a low-tax, low regulation economy. A pure form of Thatcherism though the back door.
 
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...which must mean pro-EU = in league with Satan.

Actually that kind of makes sense. I'm just not sure where my conscience fits in.

Wasn’t that venom’s first album ?

/

I am not sure whether to laugh or cry at the current situation. Not felt so powerless since the thatcher era. Have resorted to shouting at politicians on the telly in the morning ( all of them )
 
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