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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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The Italian compromise | Richard Seymour on Patreon



That's because, contrary to most reporting, this fight was not about Italy's debt repayments. As we've seen from Greece, deficit and debt work very differently. The government can run a surplus and still drive up its debt-to-GDP ratio. Indeed, in a depressed economy, that is the most likely outcome. The reality is that the European Union tends to use debt as a lever to secure other policy objectives, rather than ensure maximum repayment.

Nor is it about the government's adherence to the rules of the Stability & Growth Pact. The government's deficit plans were well within the strict 3 per cent limit imposed by the Pact, and still on the lower end of recent deficits run by the Italian government.

This was about something more fundamental: can elections be allowed to alter agreements or not? The EU is predicated on what the late Peter Gowan called "negative integration": it limits the powers of elected governments. It doesn't weaken 'sovereignty', but rather binds democratic bodies up in a network of laws and agreements.

This goes to the heart of recent arguments about what neoliberalism really is. Many commentators still lazily assume that it's a kind of 'market fundamentalism'. It was never that. As writers from Foucault onward have pointed out, neoliberals are distinct from classical liberals in that they don't believe that markets will be fine if left to themselves. They don't believe that homo economicus exists: she has to be made, by law. This reflects the fact that neoliberalism is a reaction against mass democracy and its deleterious effects on a liberal, property-based order.

Quinn Slobodian's informative book on the Geneva school neoliberals, Globalists, shows these capitalist militants to be less about free markets than about bounded democracies. Their idiom is less 'market fundamentalism' than constitutional fundamentalism. Two second-generation neoliberals, Hans von der Groeben and Ernst-Joachim Mestmäcker, played a key role in developing the legal framework for the Union. In their view, the preservation of a liberal society depended on the depoliticisation of the economy, and the creation of a robust legal framework to prevent certain kinds of government intervention.

This system depended on preserving, not eliminating, the system of national states. The power to enforce, penalise and incentivise ultimately depended on the powers of its member-states. The Hayekian EU is not a 'federalist' project: the Brexit nightmare of a 'federal superstate' (which could a very good thing) is a nonsense.
 
I've yet to see a convincing argument that the EU is 'more democratic' than its member states.
This link offers a short, simple overview of some aspects of the democratic deficit inherent in the project:
Democratic deficit (EU) | tutor2u Politics
Though, of course, we are here restricting ourselves to the political democracy of the superstructure; whether in or out the base remains beyond our democratic control.
A very poor article if I may say so. Talks about 'principles of democracy' which are not followed by the EU without setting out what they are, no discussion of how the setup varies from a typical nation state one (surprise surprise UK Parliament doesn't sack ministers or governor of BoE either). Maybe we should elect e.g. heart surgeons to solve the 'democratic deficit' there?
 
A very poor article if I may say so. Talks about 'principles of democracy' which are not followed by the EU without setting out what they are, no discussion of how the setup varies from a typical nation state one (surprise surprise UK Parliament doesn't sack ministers or governor of BoE either). Maybe we should elect e.g. heart surgeons to solve the 'democratic deficit' there?
You may.
There are, of course, many more detailed articles on the democratic deficit of the EU (eg. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2006.00650.x ) but I really was hoping that a pro-EU poster would be able to support the notion that the EU is "arguably more democratic" than its member states.
 
Also missing out that Landsbankinn's problems were 90% foreign money. The Iceland-only portion of the bank had no problems at all. That's not the same case as in the UK.

The "oh we don't need the banks" stuff is intellectual wanking. It's not going to happen. Corbyn won't make it happen. A hypothetical Prime Minister Michael Foot wouldn't have made it happen. A sensible government would do well to invest in other sectors of the economy to prevent a "Oh shit, all our eggs are in that one basket" thing happening again, but that requires a sensible government. Which also isn't going to happen.
It isn't quite a question of 'we don't need the banks' (although we absolutely don't, not in their current configuration - they're part of the problem). The point is that the assets of the banks - their loans - could and should have been nationalised for good in 2008. Banking for people rather than banking for bankers - a remutualisation of the system. This is still desperately needed, but the opportunity to do it easily has passed. Now the forces of capital have regathered so such a thing becomes very hard to do even with the political will to do it. There was an option to do it in 2008 - a rare moment when politicians were not merely business managers, when they had real choices about what to do.

I take mauvais's point about fundamentals, but how fundamental is a sector that needs 100s of billions of pounds to be printed to shore it up? How much of that 'fundamental' is in fact a mirage of fictitious capital in the shape of asset price bubbles? The financial sector isn't quite as dominant in the UK economy as some think it is - manufacturing is still bigger. It is dominant in one place - London. How would London cope if the financial sector shrank? Fewer pointless skyscrapers. Far cheaper housing, space to rent for community activities, etc. A bunch of rich bankers no longer there - what kind of loss is it when these people often work huge long hours and contribute the square of fuck all to their local communities outside that? No more billionaire oligarchs buying up whole streets as an investment. Boohoo. Before the latest finance bubble in London, back in the 1990s, the city was a far easier and nicer place to live in a great many ways for most people. It really would be no loss not to have these fuckers around. Yes, a few coffee shops would close, some buildings wouldn't be built, but then, as is regularly pointed out on this thread, London has largely needed to import workers from the EU to fill these vacancies. And in any case, a job market isn't zero-sum - with the bankers gone, other things would open up in the newly vacated spaces. The city would have a chance to renew itself in a non-gentrification manner, in a way that does not push all but the richest out into the margins. Lose a bit of tax? Base rate goes back up a bit perhaps. But if you're paying hundreds less per month in rent/mortgage, you're still way better off. We're being ripped off by the rich at the moment. And the idea that we need their taxes is laughable - if they take 100 pounds from you and pay 45 pounds of it back in tax (ha! it'll be way less than that of course once their accountants have been through it), that still leaves you 55 pounds out of pocket.
 
You seem to be assuming either that the ruling class or establishment is a uniquely British thing, or that the EU/European ruling class is somehow much nicer and fluffier and will treat us all much kinder and fairly than the British RC.

I don't know about nicer and fluffier, or kinder or fairer, there exists those downsides, which are inherent downsides in the domestic system too. It is a matter of preference.
One of the upsides of being oppressed by the wider EU establishment, rather than oppressed by the UK establishment, is the opportunity to be oppressed in 28 countries rather than be confined to just this one.
 
Yet you have no suggestion what.
Oh I can suggest things. Social housing building programmes underwritten by the QE money. Local authorities/ housing associations authorised to borrow against that money on long-term mortgages to build new, high quality, and importantly top of the range eco-wise housing. The rents paid pay off the mortgage over time, thus destroying the money that's been printed and removing any inflationary pressure from it, loads of builders get work, loads of people get a place to live. At the end of the process you have great new housing, loads of people with affordable homes and a bunch of assets in the form of buildings owned communally.

You could hold national architecture competitions to come up with the new designs. Involve everyone in the process. All kinds of possibilities just with that one idea, and there are plenty of others. Moving to a low-carbon economy requires investment and that investment is not forthcoming from market forces alone.

This is not pie in the sky - it's not only easily doable, it's the very easiest way to solve the UK's current housing crisis. Both the easiest and the best way to do it. It's a no-brainer. Or it would be if we had a government that didn't put the interests of the rich first. Nah. Let's build another pointless skyscraper instead, eh?
 
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The EU is for instance responsible for regulations that are clearly negative to owners of capital - two examples off the top of my head are compensation for flight delays and clamping down on mobile roaming charges.

Out-fucking-standing.

So people who fly a lot and then use their mobiles whilst jet setting are better off under the EU, yet the racist ingrates of the UK still voted out.

If only someone like you had mentioned these wonderful benefits of EU membership before the great unwashed were given their (undeserved) vote.
 
Oh I can suggest things. Social housing building programmes underwritten by the QE money. Local authorities/ housing associations authorised to borrow against that money on long-term mortgages to build new, high quality, and importantly top of the range eco-wise housing. The rents paid pay off the mortgage over time, thus destroying the money that's been printed and removing any inflationary pressure from it, loads of builders get work, loads of people get a place to live. At the end of the process you have great new housing, loads of people with affordable homes and a bunch of assets in the form of buildings owned communally.

You could hold national architecture competitions to come up with the new designs. Involve everyone in the process. All kinds of possibilities just with that one idea, and there are plenty of others. Moving to a low-carbon economy requires investment and that investment is not forthcoming from market forces alone.

This is not pie in the sky - it's not only easily doable, it's the very easiest way to solve the UK's current housing crisis. Both the easiest and the best way to do it. It's a no-brainer. Or it would be if we had a government that didn't put the interests of the rich first. Nah. Let's build another pointless skyscraper instead, eh?

Yep, and for Cornwall and similar places use all those holiday homes that nobody lives in for 50 weeks of the year. And other buildings that are being left empty, just compulsorily purchase them. Plus rent control again.
 
Yep, and for Cornwall and similar places use all those holiday homes that nobody lives in for 50 weeks of the year. And other buildings that are being left empty, just compulsorily purchase them. Plus rent control again.
Yep, and all that. The main point wrt redirecting investment is the move away from the absurd, extremist, false dogma that 'the market will provide'. The market will provide maximum returns for capital, not maximum good for people. In the case of housing, that maximum return for capital is produced by perpetual shortage, as with any essential, finite resource. It is crazy, irrational thinking to contend otherwise.

Not particularly sure how to link this back to brexit, except to say that brexit does nothing to push us away from this extremism. In Europe at least, the UK has been the prime driver of the extremism for decades, and has taken it much further than anywhere else. We have a low-tax, low-provision economy (34% GDP in tax compared to 40%+ in most other northern European countries except Ireland, which is also low-tax, low-provision), a much smaller public sector than most, massive economic inequality, low social mobility, bulging prisons, and a worsening crisis for the poor and in social provision for, well, everyone except the very richest. The real conversation ought to involve ways to move away from this and, frankly, towards a model that is closer in many respects to those of many other European countries, which would be a pretty good start. Leaving the EU produces pressures to continue even further down the extremist path by empowering those who nakedly seek a race to the bottom and a hire-em-fire-em US-style economy - the kinds of wankers like Liam Fox who imagine the UK as the bridge between the US and Europe. Brexit means many different things to many different people, but we all know what it means to the pro-brexit wing of the tory party, which may be about to be handed a very significant win.
 
That's just your opinion- it isn't obvious to me at all. The EU is for instance responsible for regulations that are clearly negative to owners of capital - two examples off the top of my head are compensation for flight delays and clamping down on mobile roaming charges.
The Blair Labour government brought in the minimum wage that doesn't mean that it wasn't neo-liberal. The fact that capital may be forced to accede to (or will even willing endorse) regulations that some business owners* may oppose is not counter to neo-liberalism.

It is illuminating, and entirely in character, that the two supposed examples of EU acting against capital you've chosen** are based on people as consumers, as individuals. The actions of the EU on people as workers, as a social group are ignored.


*and business owners does not equal capital, I would have thought such someone so shit hot on economics as yourself would understand this.

**neither of which are "clearly negative" to capital.
If only someone like you had mentioned these wonderful benefits of EU membership before the great unwashed were given their (undeserved) vote.
They did. That's why Leave won.
 
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Yep, and for Cornwall and similar places use all those holiday homes that nobody lives in for 50 weeks of the year. And other buildings that are being left empty, just compulsorily purchase them. Plus rent control again.

I've lived in London for years but Plymouth is my home town. My brother is still there. A Remainer in area where Brexit won vote.

When I was growing up there rich Londoners bought houses in South west. Local population were reduced to service industry for them in countryside. I know I did that for a while. It was resented quietly. Class is an issue in countryside.

In seventies when I grew up in Plymouth the largely working class population in Docklands all had relatively good jobs in hindsight. I go back there now and it looks poorer. And it is. Child poverty rate in Devonport is obscenely high.

Revealed: Shocking rates of child poverty in Plymouth

Child poverty rate where I grew up is now almost 40%.

Plymouth is divided spatially by class. Always was. My and my brother grew up in blue collar Docklands. That area voted Leave. Plymouth is one of the left behind areas.

My brother ( faced possible redundancy several times recently) and wife work in public sector. Only thing that keeps town like Plymouth going.

As my brother realises its not EU that is the problem its years of Tory government. And New Labour didn't do much either.

Me and brother see part of reasons why people vote leave. But it was wrong target.
 
Out-fucking-standing.

So people who fly a lot and then use their mobiles whilst jet setting are better off under the EU, yet the racist ingrates of the UK still voted out.

If only someone like you had mentioned these wonderful benefits of EU membership before the great unwashed were given their (undeserved) vote.
Shit, I forgot that workers don't take flights - too busy taking care of their pit ponies or something.
 
The Blair Labour government brought in the minimum wage that doesn't mean that it wasn't neo-liberal. The idea that capital can't be forced to accede to (or will even willing endorse) regulations that some business owners* may oppose is not counter to neo-liberalism.

It is illuminating, and entirely in character, that the two supposed examples of EU acting against capital you've chosen** are based on people as consumers, as individuals. The actions of the EU on people as workers, as a social group are ignored.


*and business owners does not equal capital, I would have thought such someone so shit hot on economics as yourself would understand this.

**neither of which are "clearly negative" to capital.
Workers are also consumers. If you are considering whether the EU is a good thing, it is a little silly in my view to focus solely on the impact of one dimension of their lives.

Really not interested in debating semantics and dick sizing over how you define words btw.
 
just read this:
From Arse To Elbow: The Progressive Vote

on brexit and labour
A few thing I didn't like about that piece but this stands out particularly strongly to me
Wren-Lewis's last point - empathy for EU migrants - probably counts a lot for a small number of people with direct personal involvement or a strong sense of ethical obligation, but it isn't a priority for most voters for whom empathy with Latvians is no more salient than empathy with Laotians. This doesn't make them xenophobic or callous, it merely reflects their personal circumstances and their mental ranking of the factors that will determine their vote.

Its not about Latvians being equal to Loatians, that's a false but telling equivalence.. it's about people legally living in the UK, who may not be British passport holders but have full citizens rights, and are defacto British Citizens.... They're not migrants, they're people who have at one time migrated, but they're now in practice UK citizens.

And to not care about fellow citizens IS callous, at best. How can it be otherwise? Unless they're considered always just Latvians, always Other, always a step from being kicked out. Not real Brits.
 
Its not about Latvians being equal to Loatians, that's a false but telling equivalence.. it's about people legally living in the UK, who may not be British passport holders but have full citizens rights, and are defacto British Citizens.... They're not migrants, they're people who have at one time migrated, but they're now in practice UK citizens.

And to not care about fellow citizens IS callous, at best. How can it be otherwise? Unless they're considered always just Latvians, always Other, always a step from being kicked out. Not real Brits.
This is a very strange argument.

For a start it is not correct to say that people who have migrated from the EU to the UK have full citizens rights, for example many will not be entitled to vote in a GE.

But more importantly your argument makes legality and citizenship the basis on which empathy should be extended. So what about those migrants that aren't UK citizen's, either de facto or de jura, that may have entered the country illegally? Are they to be extended a lesser degree of empathy?

EDIT: You've also misread Timoney's argument he states
Timoney said:
but it isn't a priority for most voters for whom empathy with Latvians is no more salient than empathy with Laotians.
and goes onto say (in the same paragraph as the one you've quoted)
Timoney" said:
Many people are unhappy with the anticipated future treatment of EU migrants, just as they are unhappy with the proliferation of foodbanks, but it doesn't follow that either would cause them to ignore all other issues when it comes to a general election.
 
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This is a very strange argument.

For a start it is not correct to say that people who have migrated from the EU to the UK have full citizens rights, for example many will not be entitled to vote in a GE.

But more importantly your argument makes legality and citizenship the basis on which empathy should be extended. So what about those migrants that aren't UK citizen's, either de facto or de jura, that may have entered the country illegally? Are they to be extended a lesser degree of empathy?

They have my solidarity and are part of the same legal national unit I live in (the UK), so of course I care about them as much as anyone else affected by the jurisdiction of our parliament and the outcome of my voting decisions on them.

The article here reckons they're as important as Laotians. They're not. My vote does not affect the people of Laos. And to think they are shows up the mental distinction between real Brits and foreigners/migrants.

But I must be that little weird minority troubled by "ethical obligation". Or I'm someone who doesn't start off classifying people from the EU as migrants with less of a right to be here.
 
Jesus. I'm actually amazed that you can come out with the above. That EU migrants are more "important" than other migrants. You think this is internationalism? FFS.

This is more of the regressive politics you've tied yourself to by dying at the stake for the supposed freedom of movement designated by an neo-liberal supra-state.

(And as I've mentioned in the edit above you've totally misinterpreted Timoney's argument)
 
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