Implications for the rest of us if Scotland votes yes

[mauvais]

That image is just some crap a fool posted to some forums over 2 months ago, if google image search is anything to go by.

It's on the B/T Facebook page now.

 

[Diamond]

Can you tell me why no precedent def means no state could be allowed to stay in please? Why on earth would no precedent existing mean that none could be set? Each time you say there is no precedent you make the case that actually there are many potential outcomes here rather than your one - only one!!!! ONLY ONE!!!!!!

It could happen, anything can happen. But one of the reasons people hire expert opinions is to quantify the likelihood of something happening or, in other words, the risk profile.

When the next Commission president (Juncker) says that Scotland will have to apply for new membership, just like any other aspiring member, that's a fairly reliable indication of the way the wind is blowing and, especially in the absence of a precedent to the contrary, seems fairly clear.

e2a - logically this gives you an insight into the appetite for risk of the "yes" camp, which appears to be enormous.

 

[butchersapron]

It could happen, anything can happen. But one of the reason people hire expert opinions is to quantify the likelihood of something happening or, in other words the risk profile.

When the next Commission president (Juncker) says that Scotland will have to apply for new membership, just like any other aspiring member, that's a fairly reliable indication of the way the wind is blowing and, especially in the absence of a precedent to the contrary, seems fairly clear.

Only one thing can happen. I repeat: only one thing can happen. That said, anything can happen. And even with that said, i'm still an expert, so anything can happen. By which i mean only one thing can happen.

 

[Diamond]

Only one thing can happen. I repeat: only one thing can happen. That said, anything can happen. And even with that said, i'm still an expert, so anything can happen. By which i mean only one thing can happen.

You seem to find subtlety/nuance rather difficult to grasp - word of advice, don't try your hand at law.

 

[butchersapron]

You seem to find subtlety/nuance rather difficult to grasp - word of advice, don't try your hand at law.

I might offer you the same advice. Oh.

 

[butchersapron]

You seem to find subtlety/nuance rather difficult to grasp - word of advice, don't try your hand at law.

Are you're suggesting that i should try my hand at law? I just can't get my poor thicko head round your subtlety and nuance massa.

 

[Buckaroo]

On the EU front, it should be fairly clear that seceding from an EU member state means exiting the EU.

Nuance?

 

[goldenecitrone]

Saw a bloke in the local junk shop try to give a Scottish five pound note as change to a customer the other day. Not always easy to exchange them without Scottish independence looming.

 

[butchersapron]

Nuance?

Nah that one was subtlety i think.

 

[Belushi]

Was the same without independence looming. I don't care if it is legal tender I wouldn't accept a Scottish note in my change.

 

[Diamond]

Nuance?

The EU is a polity of 28 MS first and foremost and any region of those MS only enjoys membership by virtue of its wider state's membership, all painfully negotiated in great detail.

If a region departs the umbrella of its wider MS, it logically follows that its EU membership then ceases unless some unprecedented arrangement can be arrived at.

On Scotland's independence timetable that is almost inconceivable.

This is only underlined by the official EU position and the Spanish view.

 

[butchersapron]

The EU is a polity of 28 MS first and foremost and any region of those MS only enjoys membership by virtue of its wider state's membership, all painfully negotiated in great detail.

If a region departs the umbrella of its wider MS, it logically follows that its EU membership then ceases unless some unprecedented arrangement can be arrived at.

On Scotland's independence timetable that is almost inconceivable.

This is only underlined by the official EU position and the Spanish view.

Now that, unless some unprecedented arrangement can be arrived at is exactly what what missing from your original assertion. That would have indicated at least an awareness of possibilities beyond that bald statement. A path on the road to recognising subtlety and nuance. But, sadly, it wasn't there. In fact i had to introduce that subtlety and nuance to you.

 

[8ball]

I'm finding it funny how both sides are trying so hard to look like they're going to win. It implies that a decent segment of people are so dumb they will vote for a side just based on the fact that it looks like it's going to win.

The sad thing is that I'm not certain they're wrong in this.

 

[peterkro]

Was the same without independence looming. I don't care if it is legal tender I wouldn't accept a Scottish note in my change.

Over the years I've accepted many,drug dealers and car salespeople will often deal in Scottish hundreds.

 

[goldenecitrone]

Over the years I've accepted many,drug dealers and car salespeople will often deal in Scottish hundreds.

Says a certain something about a life lived to the full.

 

[Diamond]

Now that, unless some unprecedented arrangement can be arrived at is exactly what what missing from your original assertion. That would have indicated at least an awareness of possibilities beyond that bald statement. A path on the road to recognising subtlety and nuance. But, sadly, it wasn't there. In fact i had to introduce that subtlety and nuance to you.

You do get hung up on some odd points.

I stated that it "should be fairly clear" and that is exactly what it is - not 100% clear but in all the circumstances, it would look fairly clear, as in the majority likelihood, that EU exit goes hand in hand with UK exit.

 

[Buckaroo]

You do get hung up on some odd points.

I stated that it "should be fairly clear" and that is exactly what it is - not 100% clear but in all the circumstances, it would look fairly clear, as in the majority likelihood, that EU exit goes hand in hand with UK exit.

Please stop it. You're embarrassing yourself.

 

[Dogsauce]

Not sure if anyone has considered this before, but we will no longer be an Island Nation if they vote yes!

The UK has had a land border for the best part of a century...

 

[butchersapron]

You do get hung up on some odd points.

I stated that it "should be fairly clear" and that is exactly what it is - not 100% clear but in all the circumstances, it would look fairly clear, as in the majority likelihood, that EU exit goes hand in hand with UK exit.

It should be fairly clear that what you then outline will 100% happen. Not it's fairly clear this is likely to happen. it was an assertion that something will 100% happen and those who don't agree cannot see what is fairly clear to all of sound mind. In fact, you are now just lying about what you said and what it meant.

I'm better than you at this. And this is supposed to be your job, your area of specialist expertise.

 

[Diamond]

Ok butchers, if you say so...

 

[butchersapron]

Little tip for future diamond - you are not as clever as you think you are and other people are not at thick as you think they are. Bear that in mind - might serve you well.

 

[Diamond]

(Can't believe that this whole EU membership argument has been reduced to the employment of a qualifying adverb... talk about limited perspectives...)

 

[Diamond]

Little tip for future diamond - you are not as clever as you think you are and other people are not at thick as you think they are. Bear that in mind - might serve you well.

I don't think that you're thick butchers, far from it, but you do seem to like making things as personal as you can as quickly as possible, which I think is a bit of an odd way of going about things.

 

[redsquirrel]

Good news, everyone. You can call off the referendum. BAE Systems have doubts, and you might not be able to get B&Q drill bits so easily.

Also the Danish foreign minister says it's a bad idea. Twice.

I don't know if, Morrison's are against Independence...

Really that shitty image is part of the reason why NO has lost so much ground.

 

[treelover]

Such potential fascinates me, but I firmly believe that it can be even more of a dangerous cesspit if certain things are not put in place first.

I think its vital that genuine transparency and accountability are enshrined in the local thing from the get-go, because the corrupting imbalances of power and lack of accountability can be easier for people to harness locally.

Examples include the unfair influence of rich locals, people well-connected locally, people who can slip decisions through in a corrupt way, and in extreme cases people who can put enough muscle on the streets (either in overtly dodgy ways or via the 'local sheriff') or engage in other forms of intimidation. Also people or family dynasties that become entrenched over long periods and come to view their position within the local corridors of power as a given. Not to mention the side-effects of economic over-reliance on a few industries/companies in the area.

Devolving power to the county level can also cause issues, especially if there is disparity between different parts of the county. Here in Warwickshire there is something of a north-south divide for example, with the leafy Warwick decision-making centre often out of touch with the large population & high deprivation levels of some of Warwickshires northern towns.

Having said all that, I share your favouritism of the power of local decisions. But not as something that we simply evolve towards without a lot of other changes to our society and its structures coming into play at the same time. At a minimum, you absolutely have to get a sizeable proportion of the local populace in all areas to engage with the decision making process, which can be a challenge due to the mundane nature of much daily local business. And we would absolutely have to have a much more effective local press, that relies on proper investigative journalism and not simply rewording of press releases that come from local government, police, businesses etc.

Much of this ties into my interest in the long-term potential of the internet. Without careful attention to these and other related issues such as local organised crime, the people's democratic network of streets ( ) is going to feel like a bit of a stifling prison from very early on. Right now, from the relative safety of my bedroom, it is actually far easier for me to study and be vigilant about both historical and contemporary events on the national and international level than the local level. Information on the local level is often stunningly poor.

To put it another way, there are some 'accepted universal human rights' on a global level which help enshrine peoples safety and freedom in their daily, local lives. So we aren't just looking at having to put safeguards in place locally, but the entire way humans manage everything on every level, from the hyper-local to the global, and crucially the manner in which these levels interconnect. Decent foundations must be built on all these scales of human order for the local stuff to thrive.

Local welfare regimes can also be very brutal and unfair, Manchester City council is now prioritising those in work or prepared to look for it, in relation to social housing, we could see the return of a form of 'parish relief' where people have to plead their case for benefits, this is already happening with bedroom tax relief.

 

[leanderman]

Seriously, don't. All been done and you'd be wasting everyone's time. Just concentrate on justifying gentrification and such like in england

Classy

 

[leanderman]

The EU is a polity of 28 MS first and foremost and any region of those MS only enjoys membership by virtue of its wider state's membership, all painfully negotiated in great detail.

If a region departs the umbrella of its wider MS, it logically follows that its EU membership then ceases unless some unprecedented arrangement can be arrived at.

On Scotland's independence timetable that is almost inconceivable.

This is only underlined by the official EU position and the Spanish view.

Yes. What a mess

 

[butchersapron]

Classy

Exactly.

 

[ska invita]

Probably already been said but id guess the negative Spanish view is based on helping to get a No vote and so taking the steam out of internal Spanish independence movements

 

[8ball]

It's stupid and I don't have a vote anyway but I really really *REALLY* want to know what would happen in the case of a Yes vote.