Implications for the rest of us if Scotland votes yes

[JTG]

Sorry mate, them's the rules !!

They're British subjects with UK passports so unless the government decided to strip them of their citizenship, I can't see them being kicked out, especially as they'll have been living and working down here long enough to apply for UK citizenship anyway

 

[yield]

Sorry looked but not sure if already posted. Tommy Sheridan and Andrew Neil on Sunday Politics.

Spoiler

 

[weltweit]

They're British subjects with UK passports so unless the government decided to strip them of their citizenship, I can't see them being kicked out, especially as they'll have been living and working down here long enough to apply for UK citizenship anyway

You cannot be serious .... they all have to go, either back up north or to Brussels

 

[quiquaquo]

What are going to be the criteria for Scottish citizenship, one grandparent enough?

 

[weltweit]

What are going to be the criteria for Scottish citizenship, one grandparent enough?

I have a Scottish mother, wonder if that will get my son a free Uni place

 

[Wilf]

Beckham and Izzard, etc in 'stay together' rally in Trafalgar Square about to begin

More free gifts to Yes.

 

[Wilf]

I have a Scottish mother, wonder if that will get my son a free Uni place

I got a fuckin' parking ticket in Dumfries once. wish I'd never paid it.

 

[JTG]

I have a Scottish mother, wonder if that will get my son a free Uni place

Provided Scotland is allowed EU membership it won't matter: English students will be able to have free University education alongside all the other EU nationals

 

[weltweit]

The English working in the North North Sea will have to move to the South North Sea and the Scots working in the South North Sea will have to move to the North North Sea. And what of the Russians working in the North North Sea?

 

[ferrelhadley]

Just how fucking incompetent do you have to be to be running a country, allow a vote on a fundamental aspect of its constitution then wake up 10 days before the vote and realise you are at risk of losing over 1/4 of your landmass.

Truly surreal.

 

[weltweit]

Just how fucking incompetent do you have to be to be running a country, allow a vote on a fundamental aspect of its constitution then wake up 10 days before the vote and realise you are at risk of losing over 1/4 of your landmass.

Truly surreal.

I agree, how did we get into this mess in the first place ..

Sadly I think the masses of ordinary Scots who are being persuaded things will be better under independence may be sorely disappointed in the coming years, assuming a Yes vote Thursday. And I don't expect assuming a Yes, Salmond to remain leader for that long.

 

[Obnoxiousness]

Just how fucking incompetent do you have to be to be running a country, allow a vote on a fundamental aspect of its constitution then wake up 10 days before the vote and realise you are at risk of losing over 1/4 of your landmass.

Truly surreal.

This is exactly why Westminster should not be running the country.

 

[redsquirrel]

Provided Scotland is allowed EU membership it won't matter: English students will be able to have free University education alongside all the other EU nationals

If there is a YES vote I think university fees will be one of the areas that will need to be fought for. I can easily see a independent Scottish government trying to bring them in.

 

[JTG]

But, you know, what better proof is needed that Westminster takes vast swathes of the country for granted. Unless you're a swing voter in a small handful of constituencies you may as well not exist.

 

[free spirit]

I think westminster has seriously underestimated how bad scottish independence will be for the rest of the UK in economic terms.

Our balance of trade deficit will instantly increase by around 50%

We'll lose around 50% of the UK's natural capital asset base (excluding the valuation placed on the landscape / tourism value).

Looking at things that way, it'd seem that it should be the rUK that's concerned about our economic prospects, international borrowing rates etc rather than Scotland.

Though that does depend a lot on what percentage of the value of the oil and gas actually accrues to Scotland, eg if it's being brought ashore and processed by City of London registered companies etc.

figures extracted from...
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S4/SB_14-07.pdf
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_361880.pdf

 

[Celyn]

... wake up 10 days before the vote and realise you are at risk of losing over 1/4 of your landmass.

Truly surreal.

Maybe they thought it was only a tiny tiny patch of land - doing geography by BBC Weather Map.

 

[likesfish]

Just how fucking incompetent do you have to be to be running a country, allow a vote on a fundamental aspect of its constitution then wake up 10 days before the vote and realise you are at risk of losing over 1/4 of your landmass.

Truly surreal.

Because a large part of it is actualky empty

 

[JTG]

Because a large part of it is actualky empty

That in itself is an asset - for tourism, farming, fisheries, renewable energy and the military. It's not like it's just unending desert or tundra

 

[Diamond]

They're British subjects with UK passports so unless the government decided to strip them of their citizenship, I can't see them being kicked out, especially as they'll have been living and working down here long enough to apply for UK citizenship anyway

They are most likely British citizens, not British subjects but, hey ho, seeing as we seem to be playing fast and loose with the facts in this discussion, that's hardly the most egregious transgression.

 

[Diamond]

What are going to be the criteria for Scottish citizenship, one grandparent enough?

The "detail" is in the White Paper from approximately page 291 onwards, however, reading the text, there are a number of quite serious omissions and misrepresentations.

First and foremost, the text does not deal with a major policy issue - the prospect that those in rUK who figure themselves to be better off in Scotland might head North en masse and claim citizenship.

Second, the text implies that a Scottish passport will be equal to an EU one as a matter of course (apparently by virtue of looking a bit like it!).

Third, Scotland will have no defined international relations. Not being an EU member, it will have to very quickly negotiate an enormous number of bilateral agreements in order to provide its new citizens with the travel rights that the UK currently enjoys. No mean feat for a new nation with no foreign service and next to no international clout...

It'll be interesting to see how rUK might deal with citizenship and international relations issues too...

 

[Diamond]

I don't know though. Reflecting further on this, it's a nationalistic debate, which is fundamentally emotional.

It brings to mind 1776, although it's worth bearing in mind that that lead to the Articles of Confederation and that the Constitution came many years later after a generation of strife and that, further, a young USA prospered only because the great powers were fighting so fiercely amongst themselves during its infancy.

 

[newbie]

It's wider than just bilateral agreements about passports, but so much depends on whether the rUK negotiating stance is more jilted lover than supportive older sibling. Salmond is obviously expecting, nay demanding, the latter, on everything from currency to energy and easing EU membership. Whoever succeeds Cameron after he's sacked for breaking his country may well be so pissed off at the vast amount of time, money and opportunity cost this will take they'll force Scotland to argue about every DVD and saucepan and expect all their mates to unfriend it on Facebook.

Without huge support from rUK (or maybe someone else) the Scottish foreign service will need to establish consular representation everywhere its citizens want to travel. From day 1. If a couple of them get murdered on a beach in Thailand, kidnapped in Syria, nicked for smuggling in Columbia or just seriously ill in Kentucky they'll need a consular machine ready and capable of swinging into action. We take all that for granted, just as we take passports, Ehic and the foreign validity of driving licenses for granted. Scots will only be able to do so once all those bilateral agreements have been made, polished and ready for use on day 1. Or if big sibling rUK provides facilities, countersigns the paperwork, guarantees good behaviour etc. I can see May or Gove or whoever wanting to know what's in it for us.

 

[iamwithnail]

Tbf, it needs to have a consular machine ready from Day 1 in 2016 when independence happens. That's still quite a short time to set it up, but it's not like it'll need to be done on Friday.

 

[newbie]

that is what I meant, sorry if it wasn't clear.

 

[Diamond]

Yep.

Salmond has been totally dishonest about basic negotiation theory here.

(much as I detest these terms) What are iScotland and rUK's Best Alternative To A Negotiated Agreement (BATNA) and Worst Alternative To A Negotiated Agreement (WATNA)?

Once you have established those you can start to game the situation and it really does not look pretty for iScotland.

 

[newbie]

well yes but he's a politician trying to win a vote, brutal honesty isn't really to be expected.

I'm surprised though that the No campaign hasn't highlighted the hypothetical consequences of iScotland facing tough 'what's in it for us' negotiating stances. I guess it doesn't really fit with the 'Better together' campaign message, but that's the way of relationship breakdown, from please don't leave I can't live without you to zero goodwill and a fight about every trivial thing in five minutes flat.

 

[killer b]

well yes but he's a politician trying to win a vote, brutal honesty isn't really to be expected.

I'm surprised though that the No campaign hasn't highlighted the hypothetical consequences of iScotland facing tough 'what's in it for us' negotiating stances. I guess it doesn't really fit with the 'Better together' campaign message, but that's the way of relationship breakdown, from please don't leave I can't live without you to zero goodwill and a fight about every trivial thing in five minutes flat.

This is just fantasy stuff. Yeah, it could in theory happen, but it's in the best interest of rest of the UK to have as close links with an independent Scotland as possible. So that's what will actually happen.

And the No campaign has been highlighting these fantasy consequences - border guards, no monetary union, etc etc. It's all bollocks though.

 

[newbie]

why is it? Obviously near neighbours have some common interests which implies give & take in any interactions. But sfaics iScotland has little to give that rUK will need to take, and a great deal it needs or wants.

eg there's no need to imagine a Checkpoint Charlie type border to recognise that the EU may insist on the implementation of schengen and thus passport checks..

As for currency union, I have no idea where your confidence comes from, given that one sides preliminary negotiating stance is that it will not happen.

 

[belboid]

So that's what will actually happen.

On what terms? This is Smug n Thug's big lie, that they'll get a currency union, EU membership, everything else, with no strings attached. That's clearly a nonsense. They can only get away with it be cause the No campaign can't admit they will do a deal, but clearly they WILL do a deal. On terms that's are really shit for the Scots (the Scottish people that is, the SNP will be happy to agree to no tax rises, deficits etc)

 

[newbie]

... and 63% of English/Welsh people don't want currency union. That's sufficient to turn it into a significant issue in the next election if any party wants to change the stated position.