Implications for the rest of us if Scotland votes yes

[Yossarian]

All an independent Scotland would need in the way of armed forces would be a platoon of ceremonial soldiers to parade for visiting dignitaries. Scotland would not be able to afford to finance any meaningful troop levels.

Why couldn't an independent Scotland afford an army when plenty of smaller and poorer countries manage it? I guess it probably couldn't afford things like nuclear submarines or a force big enough to defend the Falklands or take a leading role in invading Iraq, but it seems like most Scots are willing to live without those delights.

 

[paolo]

Why couldn't an independent Scotland afford an army when plenty of smaller and poorer countries manage it? I guess it probably couldn't afford things like nuclear submarines or a force big enough to defend the Falklands or take a leading role in invading Iraq, but it seems like most Scots are willing to live without those delights.

If it didn't want to have the opportunity to play in overseas intervention, why would it even want a significant military?

(Serious question).

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I see the IMF have issued a warning on the "yes" vote now too.

Have they? Well, for me who still knows nothing of the deeper issues, that is another crystal clear sign that the ordinary folk of Scotchland would be batshit mental to vote anything other than Yes.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

No need. Apparently North Korea have thrown their massive diplomatic weight behind Salmond because Kim Jong un wants to import Scotch Whisky.

So that'll be that then.

Can just picture some of those released from a North Korean prison camp and landing in the more salubrious areas of Glasgow on a Friday night, begging for a return to Camp 25...

 

[DotCommunist]

Have they? Well, for me who still knows nothing of the deeper issues, that is another crystal clear sign that the ordinary folk of Scotchland would be batshit mental to vote anything other than Yes.

the market threats and finance sector bullying will only entrench the yes vote share. How it will affect the DK's is anyones guess, the appear to be Pliable from Pilgrims Progress so...

 

[Coolfonz]

This has been irritating me in the back of my mind. Please don't take it too seriously but...

How long before England and Scotland have a war? 50 years? 200 years? 8 days?

 

[redsquirrel]

Surely one result of independence will be another nation to compete in the race to the bottom on corporate tax rates and so on, shifting the burden on taxation to workers/VAT? Tax competition will shaft people both sides of the border.

I think danny's post above answers this point pretty well. It's a question of opening up new possibilities, now it would be foolish to believe that capital won't try to use independence for it's own advantage, of course it will. But that doesn't mean that independence should be opposed just that whatever happens groups like the RIC need to make sure they continue to push a pro-working class strategy.

 

[weltweit]

This has been irritating me in the back of my mind. Please don't take it too seriously but...

How long before England and Scotland have a war? 50 years? 200 years? 8 days?

Not before the nuclear missiles have been returned to the south!

 

[futurereal]

Why couldn't an independent Scotland afford an army when plenty of smaller and poorer countries manage it? I guess it probably couldn't afford things like nuclear submarines or a force big enough to defend the Falklands or take a leading role in invading Iraq, but it seems like most Scots are willing to live without those delights.

In all seriousness, will Salmond support the right to the Falkland islands to decide their own future, or will he start supporting the position that they should join Argentina? After all it won't be Scotland's problem anymore.

I had a conversation a while back with somebody from Buenos Aires and her take was basically: Argentina should let the Falklander's make their own decision, however it should offer the hand of friendship if they want to join as a federal area.
She understood why they didn't want to join the mainland and was of the position that if Argentina stopped electing kleptomaniacs and quasi-fascists into office who robbed the public purse and made an effort to reconcilliate, that in the long run the Falklands may end up joining the federation.

Makes sense to me, I wonder what the SNP take is on it though?

 

[Sasaferrato]

Surely one result of independence will be another nation to compete in the race to the bottom on corporate tax rates and so on, shifting the burden on taxation to workers/VAT? Tax competition will shaft people both sides of the border.

Salmond would fuck your dog* up the arse on Glasgow Green at noon, if he thought that it would give him a win.

*Hamster, cat, Guinea Pig...

 

[Sasaferrato]

Not before the nuclear missiles have been returned to the south!

Remember the 100 Years War? That would be the ten minute war. Every ex-squaddie that I know, bar one, is voting 'NO!'.

 

[J Ed]

In all seriousness, will Salmond support the right to the Falkland islands to decide their own future, or will he start supporting the position that they should join Argentina? After all it won't be Scotland's problem anymore.

Who cares?

 

[weltweit]

.. Every ex-squaddie that I know, bar one, is voting 'NO!'.

I presume because they feel more part of the union, having served the union? is that right?

 

[futurereal]

Who cares?

I'm guessing the people that live there care.

 

[ddraig]

I presume because they feel more part of the union, having served the union? is that right?

probably because all the ones he knows are old tory twits

 

[J Ed]

I'm guessing the people that live there care.

About what Alex Salmond thinks of them?

 

[futurereal]

About what Alex Salmond thinks of them?

Yes, and what the impact of an independant Scotland's future is likely to hold for them, the result it will have on defence etc.

 

[Sasaferrato]

 

[Pickman's model]

that's the sort of quality which has been such a hallmark of the 'no' campaign's propaganda

another example:

 

[JTG]

I'm stunned that after two years of silence during the campaign, Sas has finally come out for 'No'

 

[Sasaferrato]

I'm stunned that after two years of silence during the campaign, Sas has finally come out for 'No'

I am studiously avoiding debate on the subject. Self imposed purdah.

 

[Pickman's model]

I am studiously avoiding debate on the subject. Self imposed purdah.

is that because your arguments won't stand the slightest scrutiny?

 

[ibilly99]

Salmond and the SNP have won already haven't they - Devo Max is in the bag isn't it ?

 

[ibilly99]

The onslaught of hugely negative news spreading a torrent of fear right across the spectrum and with a ferocity I have never seen before in my lifetime called almost at will about the implications of a Yes vote are an abject lesson in the power and force of the British Establishment. Cameron must surely be feeling the heat for letting this happen on his watch.

 

[newbie]

There's an academic blog post here which is the first serious attempt I've noticed to look at post-yes negotiations and ask what is in whose interests. Its conclusion is much the same as mine, that the new Scottish state has little to offer rUK and little bargaining power.

"an independent Scotland would remain heavily dependent on rUK in a large number of ways. These ways are important for iScotland, but not particularly for its much larger neighbour. To secure an advantageous ongoing arrangement, it has to be able to make convincing proposals to rUK that deliver things rUK wants or needs – and the list of those, once there has been a Yes vote, is small."

He only identifies two major things rUK will want from post-yes Scotland: continuity for Trident, and that iScotland does not become a failed state. Everything else, he reckons, is actually pretty marginal from our point of view, and I think I agree. Personally I'd like one outcome to be the complete destruction of Trident, and I certainly don't want iScotland to fail, but really, nothing that this thread has thrown up causes particular concern. tbh I don't really care if I have to show a passport at the border, or change currency, or if they don't get Dr Who and so on. The medium/longterm implications for 'the rest of us' are actually pretty minor, perhaps the most significant is the the clock change which will affect everyone, but that's a positive reason to wish them well and wave goodbye.

Mind, the post doesn't really consider energy, which rUK will need to import. iScotland can provide oil, gas and hydro electricity which rUK utilities can import if they choose, but while geographic distance means Scotland has few other markets to try to enter, there are plenty of other players eager to sell to the much bigger rUK customer, France, Norway, Russia, the US and so on and on are all likely to want to compete in the reorientated market. So there, too, negotiating power does not seem to lie with Scotland.

It also doesn't consider iScotland negotiations with the EU but as I've said above, I see them with virtually nothing to offer that anyone else wants to gain.

 

[danny la rouge]

I don't really care if I have to show a passport at the border, or change currency, or if they don't get Dr Who and so on.

Read that back. Then have a good think about the standard of debate that the No side offers.

 

[newbie]

you're campaigning for a vote that affects you. I'm not, I only care about how this affects me. So my interest in the standard of the debate, as such, is minor. I am not, in any way at all, seeking to influence anyone who has a vote.

 

[Idris2002]

newbie "iScotland does not become a failed state."

And that would happen how exactly? Hordes of heavily armed Weegies roaming the streets of Glesgae in technicals, and the Clans reforming in the Highlands by holding mass sheep barbecues?

 

[newbie]

did you read the article? Having identified that it is one of the key issues for rUK he then says,
"A second is that rUK would not want iScotland becoming a failed state. A failed state on the northern border would pose an unacceptable level of risk, in security and other terms. But even if an independent Scotland were significantly less prosperous, inclusive or happy than it is within the UK, that is a far cry from being a failed state. Indeed, the threshold of failing in the way that Afghanistan or Somalia failed is so high that it is almost impossible to imagine what would undermine iScotland so gravely as to make it a failed state. That is therefore not a strong negotiating point."

 

[Idris2002]

did you read the article? Having identified that it is one of the key issues for rUK he then says,
"A second is that rUK would not want iScotland becoming a failed state. A failed state on the northern border would pose an unacceptable level of risk, in security and other terms. But even if an independent Scotland were significantly less prosperous, inclusive or happy than it is within the UK, that is a far cry from being a failed state. Indeed, the threshold of failing in the way that Afghanistan or Somalia failed is so high that it is almost impossible to imagine what would undermine iScotland so gravely as to make it a failed state. That is therefore not a strong negotiating point."

And has Salmond or anyone else on the yes side threatened London with "meet our demands or we shoot this wee dug"?

The 26 counties remained heavily dependent on UK up until the 1970s, when EEC membership allowed the state to diversify its export markets - but the Irish state also displayed room for manouevre within that dependency, by remaining neutral during the war (a legitimate and necessary action, by the way) and pursuing an independent foreign policy after the war (which is why you often had Irish troops in UN missions) and also building an independent economic development strategy after 1960 and Sean Lemass' Programme for Economic Expansion.

You might respond that the Republic of Ireland was and remains an utterly fucked-up and dysfunctional society, and you'd be entirely correct on that point - but that's not the result of Irish independence, it's the result of the failure of the Irish to use their independence properly.