Implications for the rest of us if Scotland votes yes

[littlebabyjesus]

Certainly on the big questions that's true, but is this a big question? What's in it for the monolith, to make a special case for a small, brand new country with no economic record whatsoever? It took 85 billion euros to bail out the Irish economy a few years ago, why would they take on the risk?

My judgement on this - no it's not a big question, hence it is not worth making any kind of stand over. Smoothly expedite the transition and that causes fewest shocks to the system. Excluding Scotland from the EU, which is in effect throwing Scotland out of the EU as it is currently a member via the UK, is the option fraught with danger, and there is no obvious upside to doing it.

ETA: Worse than that, perhaps, for Scotland, I would guess that Germany and France would think of an independent Scotland as 'the UK's problem'. Any bailout of Scotland would be done in pounds not euros, by the Bank of England, and given that, the UK will get to basically dictate the terms under which Scotland joins the EU - the same terms under which the UK is a member. The United Kingdom of the United Kingdom of England and Wales and Northern Ireland and Scotland.

 

[DotCommunist]

I know people are looking at the wider political implications, asking the questions etc but do you really think these things are not already under consideration on all sides? These are questions that are meaningless anyway untill there is a mandate. So let fair scotland decide, she won't fall into the sea/be bankrupted/declare war just post-indy.

 

[newbie]

So some variation in the political make up of the various counties, states, Dependencies that give allegiance to the Crown already exists. So what's the big deal. Things change in time.

if the Isle of Man goes bust the BoE will pick up the tab. If Belgium declares war on Guernsey the MoD will send gunboats. If the Lieutenant-Governor of Jersey pops his clogs the Privy Council will appoint a new one.

I don't think that's what the Scots are talking about.

 

[eoin_k]

Apparently Scotch Whisky is going to be supertaxed by the UK post independence - hence destroying the Scotch Whisky trade.

The UK including Scotland represents less than 7% of their market, so I doubt that even if this did happen it would destroy the trade.

Source: http://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/media/62024/2012_statistical_report.pdf

 

[newbie]

My judgement on this - no it's not a big question, hence it is not worth making any kind of stand over. Smoothly expedite the transition and that causes fewest shocks to the system. Excluding Scotland from the EU, which is in effect throwing Scotland out of the EU as it is currently a member via the UK, is the option fraught with danger, and there is no obvious upside to doing it.

there's a big stretch between excluding them and agreeing to every one of their demands.

 

[kenny g]

There are reports of large numbers of Scottish terriers being threatened with deportation by Northumberland farmers if Scotland votes yes. On the other hand various English breeds have already started forming lines in Edinburgh awaiting repatriation.

 

[danny la rouge]

The fact that Scottish leaders plan to join NATO shows the conservative nature of this particular revolution.

Everything changes, yet nothing changes. As danny la rouge liked to say about Obama, 'change you cannot see'.

Well, it tells you what you need to know about the SNP.

If you read back in the Big Thread to when the SNP adopted its NATO policy (after decades of being anti), you'll see I had a bit of a wobble about supporting Yes. (Not that I'd ever have voted No).

However, it's important to remember that Yes is far more than the SNP.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

there's a big stretch between excluding them and agreeing to every one of their demands.

But it would also be a demand of the UK. No to Schengen, for instance. After all, if Scotland joins the EU under similar terms to the UK's current deal, what has changed for the rest of the EU? Would Germany care? I don't see why they would.

Geography matters in this, too. No extra land borders closed to Schengen because of this.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Well, it tells you what you need to know about the SNP.

If you read back in the Big Thread to when the SNP adopted its NATO policy (after decades of being anti), you'll see I had a bit of a wobble about supporting Yes. (Not that I'd ever have voted No).

However, it's important to remember that Yes is far more than the SNP.

I admire your optimistic attitude towards this.

Genuinely - no piss take.

 

[ibilly99]

A right wing libertarian financial blog suggests an Independent Scotland should repudiate their share of the debt and massively screw the UK.

Cameron is the dangerous one, and Scotland should erect the middle finger in his direction.

The real issue is that Scotland could repudiate their part of UK debt in the public markets. That would be easy with an independent government, and it would massively screw the UK.

Of course doing that would have serious repercussions for Scotland too -- they would not be able to borrow at reasonable rates in the international markets. That's good, not bad -- it would force the government to be honest in its accounting and to collect as much in taxes as it spends, instead of screwing in the ass all of its citizens via currency devaluation.

Cameron, along with all of the leaders of nations who run deficits, ought to be imprisoned for theft by fraud and deception from the citizens of their country. Indeed, I can make a clean argument that what ought to be the case is that the penalty from the original Coinage Act should be imposed on them.

After a fair trial, of course.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229379

 

[littlebabyjesus]

One potential upside I can see to Scottish independence does come with the military, despite Scottish intentions to join NATO.

If, as seems inevitable, UK and Scottish military maintains extensive links, a decision by the UK to start a war that the Scottish govt does not consent to will be harder to push through for the UK. Scottish independence could put a break on British militarism.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

A right wing libertarian financial blog suggests an Independent Scotland should repudiate their share of the debt and massively screw the UK.

Won't happen. It's not just the UK that would kick hard against that - so would Germany, France, the US. Even China would disapprove. Not to mention Scottish pension holders who would lose their money. As Chomsky said in the interview JEd linked to, this new country would not be seen to be 'treaty-worthy'. Such a move would lead to mass unemployment in Scotland. It would probably lead to a new union with England.

 

[ibilly99]

Shetland considers Independence from Edinburgh and would wish to take it considerable oil assets with it.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-their-own-if-scotland-votes-yes-9217514.html

 

[8ball]

Heard snippets of talk in work today from people musing about how best to arrange their pension pots given the vote next week...

 

[Pickman's model]

Regarding Nato. There is already grumbling from the US about Europe's "bonzai" armies. Simple fact is Scotland will have a tiny military and intelligence gathering capabilities - and the perception amongst some in Washington is that Europe can't get its shit together and the small nations ride on the US coat tails (I'm sure there are those in Washington who prefer this situation as well).

If Scotland joins NATO it will largely be:

1.) Symbolic
2.) Confirmation that Scotland plans to play ball with the other Nato countries and EU on defence issues.

Regarding the US position though. There is also a realisation that the US can't and won't in the long run continue to spend $billions on placing US bases and troops in the EU.

For many on the Left this will be seen as the begining of the end of US hegemony in Europe. For some on the Right (and maybe Left too) it will be an incentive for further Federalisation in order to build a common defence policy for the EU.

Interesting times.

on the other hand outside of qatar and kuwait and turkey i don't suppose too many countries in the middle east want big yankee bases - and turkey not too keen on letting their territory be used for launching attacks on the m.e. so bases in europe might be better than no bases nearby at all.

 

[IC3D]

If they go for independence the pressure to buy a round will be the most difficult obstacle I'd of thought

 

[Theisticle]

Buried in the detail of 670-page white paper on independence, launched in Glasgow by the Scottish first minister Alex Salmond, it emerged that his government wants to qualify its staunch nuclear free policy by saying that nuclear-armed vessels from Nato countries would be free to use its ports on a confidential basis. It confirmed that an independent Scotland governed by the SNP would aim to eject Britain's Trident nuclear fleet from the Faslane base in Argyll and Bute "with a view" to achieving this by 2020. But it softened its previously hardline position by saying this was its "aim and intention", indicating that it was willing to compromise further.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/26/alex-salmond-snp-stance-nato-nuclear-weapons

 

[ibilly99]

An independent Scotland might get it's hands on nearly 30 tons of gold.

http://rt.com/uk/186048-gold-negotiation-scotland-independence/

 

[cantsin]

Actually, that's a good idea. You can have all the inbred bits.

thats the exactly the sort of S Devon attitude we want to leave behind - and you can take your poncey cream teas with you

 

[danny la rouge]

I admire your optimistic attitude towards this.

Genuinely - no piss take.

I've always been very clear about what I think a Yes vote achieves. In short, I'm not voting Yes in order to support another Parliament.

 

[cesare]

So RBS and LLoyds have just announced that if yes is successful they will move their headquarters to London.

 

[weepiper]

So RBS and LLoyds have just announced that if yes is successful they will move their headquarters to London.

The Bank of Scotland was effective in raising funds for the Jacobite Rebellion and as a result, The Royal Bank of Scotland was established to provide a bank with strong Hanoverian and Whig ties

no change there then.

 

[danny la rouge]

So RBS and LLoyds have just announced that if yes is successful they will move their headquarters to London.

Goodbye.

 

[Tankus]

Rbs is still 81% government share owned...So Ozzy's been on the blower

 

[ska invita]

Rbs is still 81% government share owned...So Ozzy's been on the blower

would be v interesting if proved true

 

[Tankus]

Can't see how it could not be ?....its a board decision to move ...and the majority on the board is the snorter in chief himself

Dunno ?

 

[ska invita]

Can't see how it could not be ?....its a board decision to move ...and the majority on the board is the snorter in chief himself

Dunno ?

sounds likely to me! a good line for the press to enquire on

 

[weltweit]

There will be a lot of national organisations which will have to reorganise, the NHS, the bank of England, the tax office, passport office, DVLA, department of transport, ministry of defence army navy and airforces and the like, then there will be plenty of national private businesses which will have to reorganise. Nuclear submarines will have to be brought south and defence shipbuilding.

 

[ska invita]

Rbs is still 81% government share owned...So Ozzy's been on the blower

vince cable made the announcement back in February it seems http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/05/uk-rbs-scotland-idUKBREA140NP20140205
"I think if you were managing RBS you would almost certainly want to be in a domicile where your bank is protected against the risk of collapse," Cable told a panel of lawmakers.
"I think they already have a substantial amount of their management in London and I would have thought that inevitably they would become a London bank."

...
"RBS declined to comment on whether a vote for independence would lead it to leave Edinburgh and said it was "politically neutral" on the issue of independence.
"We don't support political parties or political movements. We will respond to what voters decide and governments agree," it said in a statement on Wednesday."

 

[ferrelhadley]

shows the conservative nature of this particular revolution.

Those ungrateful pleb bastards eh. Getting themsleves together to fight for what they want (an independent country) instead of the revolutionary anarchist thingymabob you want.