Implications for the rest of us if Scotland votes yes

[newbie]

The currency issue is a red herring, a yes vote as I understand it just means kick starts independence, it doesn't happen overnight. And negotiations will probably result in sone sort of currency union , rather like the Euro but called the pound

only if hard-eyed economists and politicians think it's in rUKs best interest. There is no guarantee that's the case, and it doesn't seem particularly plausible- what happens in a currency union if the weakest partner falls over- the whole Eurozone had to bale out Greece, are you really thinking that rUK should pick up the tab- why would that be a good idea?

 

[newbie]

Scotland has been in the EU since the UK joined, what's to negotiate?

you're making assumptions in a world of pork barrel politics.

 

[andysays]

Of course they will. If Scotland has to go through formal application as a new state, then rUK will too. Can just see the EU welcoming that can of worms.

Same for NATO too.

No, Scotland will become a new state, whereas rUK will continue with all the existing memberships etc of the existing UK.

 

[marty21]

The big implication I can see is in the rest of Europe, Catalans in Spain, they will push for a referendum with renewed confidence, maybe Northern Italy, Wales , of course and with any luck Northen Ireland too.

 

[marty21]

only if hard-eyed economists and politicians think it's in rUKs best interest. There is no guarantee that's the case, and it doesn't seem particularly plausible- what happens in a currency union if the weakest partner falls over- the whole Eurozone had to bale out Greece, are you really thinking that rUK should pick up the tab- why would that be a good idea?

Scotland have a few cards to play, North Sea oil and gas for one, can't see the govt really wanting the hassle that an independent Scotland might go into a non euro trading block with someone else


They are close to the scandanavian countries afterall

 

[newbie]

The big implication I can see is in the rest of Europe, Catalans in Spain, they will push for a referendum with renewed confidence, maybe Northern Italy, Wales , of course and with any luck Northen Ireland too.

I'm off out, but if Spain grants the Catalan (& Basque) demand for a ref, it will also have to respect the same in Gibraltar.

 

[marty21]

I'm off out, but if Spain grants the Catalan (& Basque) demand for a ref, it will also have to respect the same in Gibraltar.

Yep, very complex

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

No, Scotland will become a new state, whereas rUK will continue with all the existing memberships etc of the existing UK.

You sure about that?


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/-sp-if-scotland-votes-for-independence-key-questions

A Foreign Office spokesman has said “independent legal opinion sought and published by the UK government” had clarified that the UK would continue on existing terms and Scotland would be an entirely new state. But there is one huge caveat to this: UK membership of the security council is dependent on Scotland not declaring that both countries are new states.

 

[Flavour]

There will almost certainly not be a referendum on the north of Italy splitting or rather dividing the country for the simple reason that all the so called legisti are too busy stuffing their faces in Rome on taxpayers money

 

[andysays]

You sure about that?...

Yeah, I'm pretty sure. As far as I can remember, this has been dealt with (to my satisfaction at least) on the much longer Scottish Independence thread in the Scotland forum.

 

[DotCommunist]

so London local news have opened tonight with a straw poll about wether londoners would like to be an independent city state. 1 in 5 in favour.

a) they'd be eating the rats and dogs by day 3, then their own children by a week in

b) Well done for making a scots indy themed news day ALL ABOUT YOU London

jesus

 

[kenny g]

jesus

Yes?

 

[kebabking]

You sure about that?


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/-sp-if-scotland-votes-for-independence-key-questions

i'm under the impression that everyone is sure of that, even the 'yes' campaign.

Scotland can declare what it likes at the UN, that does not make everyone else agree with them, or vote with them.

 

[Idaho]

The channel Islands have the pound don't they? As does the Isle of Man. But neither are in the UK.

 

[marty21]

The channel Islands have the pound don't they? As does the Isle of Man. But neither are in the UK.

before Ireland joined the Euro, there was some sort of agreement, you could spend pounds and get a set exchange rate iirc

 

[Idaho]

Liberty for the south west. Dorset, Devon and Somerset all forming a state as equal partners. We can make Cornwall a lesser member so they have something to whine about.

The capital can be some compromise between Plymouth, Bristol and Exeter... Tiverton.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

"The rest of the EU" is not some monolithic entity (monothought clique...). it's made up of a number of different nations, each with their own governments with their own idea of what is in their national interest. I'd therefore be rather hesitant about predicting that the EU will simply go ahead and ignore its own rules about new members joining, especially as this would encourage independence movements in some of those countries (Spain being merely the most obvious example) to think they could simply gain independence and join the EU the same day, under whatever terms they saw fit.

Er, yes it is. Ask a Greek politician whether or not they had an option not to accept austerity. It was imposed on them by the monolithic entity that sets economic policy within the Eurozone.

Would that your idea of what the EU is were true. Spain is a very obvious example of a country in the EU that has very little say over how the EU is run or indeed over how Spain is run. Spain and other southern-European countries do what they are told by their northern betters. Power in the EU is not distributed per person, but per unit of wealth, and the interests behind most of that wealth do indeed form a very solid monolith.

 

[kenny g]

Apparently Scotch Whisky is going to be supertaxed by the UK post independence - hence destroying the Scotch Whisky trade.

 

[andysays]

Er, yes it is. Ask a Greek politician whether or not they had an option not to accept austerity. It was imposed on them by the monolithic entity that sets economic policy within the Eurozone.

Would that your idea of what the EU is were true. Spain is a very obvious example of a country in the EU that has very little say over how the EU is run or indeed over how Spain is run. Spain and other southern-European countries do what they are told by their northern betters. Power in the EU is not distributed per person, but per unit of wealth, and the interests behind most of that wealth do indeed form a very solid monolith.

Spain may or may not have very little say over how the EU is run, but it, along with every other existing member, has the right to veto the admission of any new member. In common with some other countries, the Spanish government has an interest in not encouraging its own independently-inclined regions to think they can simply become a new state one day and be automatically recognised as new members of the EU, on any terms they see fit, including breaking various of the normal obligations for new members.

Which is not to say that deals and accomodations can't and won't be made, but you seem to be blind to the fact that there is a potential problem here, and one which there is no precedent for, so your confidence that you know exactly what will happen strikes me as a little misplaced.

 

[cantsin]

Liberty for the south west. Dorset, Devon and Somerset all forming a state as equal partners. We can make Cornwall a lesser member so they have something to whine about.

The capital can be some compromise between Plymouth, Bristol and Exeter... Tiverton.

We in N Devonare going to join #Kernow, with Barnstaple as our capital - S Devon can stay with the Emmets.

 

[marty21]

Apparently Scotch Whisky is going to be supertaxed by the UK post independence - hence destroying the Scotch Whisky trade.

MPs *hic!* would never vote for that

 

[Pickman's model]

The channel Islands have the pound don't they? As does the Isle of Man. But neither are in the UK.

they have a pound.

 

[Pickman's model]

i'm under the impression that everyone is sure of that, even the 'yes' campaign.

Scotland can declare what it likes at the UN, that does not make everyone else agree with them, or vote with them.

depends how much whisky and buckfast they use to grease the throats of the delegates.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Spain may or may not have very little say over how the EU is run, but it, along with every other existing member, has the right to veto the admission of any new member. .

yeah right. Just as Greek leaders had the right to call for a referendum on austerity. There is the form of democracy in the EU but it is just that, a form, an outward appearance.

 

[futurereal]

Of course they will. If Scotland has to go through formal application as a new state, then rUK will too. Can just see the EU welcoming that can of worms.

Same for NATO too.

Regarding Nato. There is already grumbling from the US about Europe's "bonzai" armies. Simple fact is Scotland will have a tiny military and intelligence gathering capabilities - and the perception amongst some in Washington is that Europe can't get its shit together and the small nations ride on the US coat tails (I'm sure there are those in Washington who prefer this situation as well).

If Scotland joins NATO it will largely be:

1.) Symbolic
2.) Confirmation that Scotland plans to play ball with the other Nato countries and EU on defence issues.

Regarding the US position though. There is also a realisation that the US can't and won't in the long run continue to spend $billions on placing US bases and troops in the EU.

For many on the Left this will be seen as the begining of the end of US hegemony in Europe. For some on the Right (and maybe Left too) it will be an incentive for further Federalisation in order to build a common defence policy for the EU.

Interesting times.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The fact that Scottish leaders plan to join NATO shows the conservative nature of this particular revolution.

Everything changes, yet nothing changes. As danny la rouge liked to say about Obama, 'change you cannot see'.

 

[newbie]

The channel Islands have the pound don't they? As does the Isle of Man. But neither are in the UK.

they're Crown Dependencies and have been for hundreds of years, answerable to the Privy Council and counted as UK possessions. Rather than independent states. They're not in the EU or Commonwealth.

 

[Idaho]

they're Crown Dependencies and have been for hundreds of years, answerable to the Privy Council and counted as UK possessions. Rather than independent states. They're not in the EU or Commonwealth.

So some variation in the political make up of the various counties, states, Dependencies that give allegiance to the Crown already exists. So what's the big deal. Things change in time.

 

[Idaho]

Actually, that's a good idea. You can have all the inbred bits.

We in N Devonare going to join #Kernow, with Barnstaple as our capital - S Devon can stay with the Emmets.

 

[newbie]

Power in the EU is not distributed per person, but per unit of wealth, and the interests behind most of that wealth do indeed form a very solid monolith.

Certainly on the big questions that's true, but is this a big question? What's in it for the monolith, to make a special case for a small, brand new country with no economic record whatsoever? It took 85 billion euros to bail out the Irish economy a few years ago, why would they take on the risk?