Ice cap disappearing 30 years ahead of schedule

[david dissadent]

This week the arctic ice sheet has reached its lowest ever recorded ice coverage. Since it broke that record it has lost another whopping 11% in total ice surface area. Now at this time of the year it does retreat fast, this is high summer but 11% in a week is staggering. It has about a month of seasonal melting left so having already broken the record it looks well set to smash it.

The reasons being given by the climatologists who specialise in this area are that it is due to a high pressure over Siberia drawing in unusualy warm air and the current ice sheet being so increadibly thin.

To try to really hammer home how bad it is, the IPCC report (the really big UN report on climate change released this year) had the assumption we'd be seeing this amount of ice melt in 2050. Two important points, firstly the ice will regrow as winter returns. It always does, but it will regrow much thinner and with less area than in the past. Also there is no guarentee we will see this much ice melt for a while again as conditions again change, but many now believe positive feedbacks have kicked in.

What this means is that the current conditions favour increasing ice melt and heat retention in the arctic. White ice reflects alot more heat than the seas natural dark green, and water retains a great deal of heat energy (hence coastal regions are much warmer in winters [not in the UK where they are exposed to arctic winds but in most of the rest of the world]). This means that far far more energy is entering (and being retained) by the arctic ecosystem, meaning less ice will be able to grow again over winter and so the melt will start earlier and run quicker than usual. These are the dreaded feedback loops that have enviromentalists in stiches of fear.

The other realy dangerous situation is if this ice melt leads to the tundra in Siberia and Canada to start melting and releasing guargantuan amounts of methane. This will again re-inforce global warming.


1979 September

Last week

Friday 17th of August 2007

Here are a couple of the better scientific web sites dealing with the arctic climate.
http://www.realclimate.org/
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/Jef...p;tstamp=200708

 

[david dissadent]

This is taken from the Illinois uni web site. The green line is the 3 monthly average for summer, the one with the long trend of dissapearing that has had its record smashed a month early.

A blogger, Khehab, put together this epelepsy inducing gif compairing last year to this years ice extent on 13th of august.

"Daddy what was a polar bear?"

 

[electric.avenue]

Pretty shocking stuff.

 

[RhymnRzn]

at my brothers house i caught eye of this program on t.v. by national geographic called "dangerous jobs", and this episode the reporter was taggin along with all these one track minded guys, after their gains, as they were running their tractor trailers trucking mineral resources in north canada, making a big deal of nothing (evironmental wha?) but the fact that the hazard of one of these trucks falling through the ice sheet they were trecking upon, and how dangerous it is to do this task. i thought, surely there is an extremely negative effect upon the climate in all this activity, but no conscience of this sort seemed to be mentioned.

 

[RhymnRzn]

oh, it's the history channel.........

http://www.history.com/minisites/iceroadtruckers

 

[david dissadent]

Please someone be angy at this. Should this not be on the front page, we are watching huge enviromental changes in DAYS.

 

[Gavin Bl]

I hear ya dave, but sadly I just don't think people are that interested yet - don't even start to think about what happens when the land-borne ice shelves start to give......

 

[david dissadent]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hu...=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=world&type=anom

the arctic sea is now 5 degrees warmer in places.

 

[UTJF]

I hear ya dave, but sadly I just don't think people are that interested yet - don't even start to think about what happens when the land-borne ice shelves start to give......

Yep, the majority of people wont give a shit until they notice it's affecting them personally. By which time it will be way too late to do anything about it.

 

[Aldebaran]

I hear ya dave, but sadly I just don't think people are that interested yet - don't even start to think about what happens when the land-borne ice shelves start to give......

In my idea the main problem is just that: People can't imagine it happening and even if they do, can't imagine how to prevent it.
The only remedy can come from a drastic change in common reasoning and behaviour patterns. That should be innitiated the moment a child gains awareness of the world around him.

salaam.

 

[david dissadent]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
On the 22nd of August update there is a .mov file that shows this years arctic ice. If you have an interest its an awesome bit of a file.

 

[bigfish]

Heavier than expected Arctic ice blocks British solo sailor

A BRITISH yachtsman attempting the first solo Arctic sea passage across northern Russia was examining his options after heavier than expected ice blocked his route...

Adrian Flanagan is discussing with Russian authorities the possibility of using a nuclear-powered icebreaker to lift his boat out of the water and carry it round the most icebound stretch of Russia's Northern Sea Route.
...
The 46-year-old entered the eastern end of the treacherous sea route that stretches from Asia to Europe across northern Russia in late July. He had hoped that his 11m reinforced yacht would be able to get all the way to Europe due to lighter ice conditions observed in recent years, thought to be a result of global warming. But after making his way through the Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev Seas, Flanagan has been forced to a halt by heavy ice at the most difficult point in the route, the Vilkitsky Strait.
...
Flanagan is now anchored by an island just east of the Vilkitsky Strait, still hoping for the ice to clear but working on the backup plan, his manager said. She described the yachtsman's mood as “pretty fed-up”.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22359472-5005961,00.html

 

[Bob_the_lost]

You really don't understand this do you bigfish, if the ice is in the, normally navigable, channel then it's not part of the ice cap. Your own link shoots you in the foot.

 

[david dissadent]

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22359472-5005961,00.html

Your point being?.......

 

[david dissadent]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,2164776,00.html

Greenland is starting to accelerate in its melting. This is wide open to interperatation as to how quickly it can melt. But however quick or slow, it has begun.

 

[bigfish]

Your point being?.......

That heavier than expected ice in the Vilkitsky Strait region doesn't seem to jibe that well with the idea that the North polar ice cap is disappearing 30 years ahead of schedule or with the fact there hasn't been any global warming since 1998. If indeed the Arctic region really was becoming warmer, then the Arctic tree-line would be displacing Northward, as it did during the Medieval Warm Period (80 kilometers further North than it is today).

Incidentally, the Southern hemisphere is experiencing one of its coldest winters on record (snow in Buenos Aires for the first time in 80 years) and sea-ice extent in the Antarctic is increasing.

 

[david dissadent]

That heavier than expected ice in the Vilkitsky Strait region doesn't seem to jibe that well with the idea that the North polar ice cap is disappearing 30 years ahead of schedule or with the fact there hasn't been any global warming since 1998. If indeed the Arctic region really was becoming warmer, then the Arctic tree-line would be displacing Northward, as it did during the Medieval Warm Period (80 kilometers further North than it is today).

Incidentally, the Southern hemisphere is experiencing one of its coldest winters on record (snow in Buenos Aires for the first time in 80 years) and sea-ice extent in the Antarctic is increasing.

Sorry one yauchtsman story about finding some ice somewhere in the Arctic vs satalite data displaying the total amount of melt in the Arctic..... has it even occured to you that ice floats and gets pushed around by the wind so can easily end up in unexpected places. I have posted satalite imaging and subsiquent data, you tell me of a stuck sailor.

Ill see you your first snow in Buenos Aires with no snow in downtown Tokyo for the first time in 130 years....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17113939/

Now back to data. Do you openly deny there has been a massive melt in the Arctic this year?

 

[Bob_the_lost]

That heavier than expected ice in the Vilkitsky Strait region doesn't seem to jibe that well with the idea that the North polar ice cap is disappearing 30 years ahead of schedule or with the fact there hasn't been any global warming since 1998. If indeed the Arctic region really was becoming warmer, then the Arctic tree-line would be displacing Northward, as it did during the Medieval Warm Period (80 kilometers further North than it is today).

You really are thick as two short planks aren't you?

 

[bigfish]

Greenland is starting to accelerate in its melting. This is wide open to interperatation as to how quickly it can melt. But however quick or slow, it has begun.

Petr Chylek, of Dalhousie University, Canada, summarized Greenland’s climate history recently in the journal Geophysical Research Letters:“Although the last decade of 1995-2005 was relatively warm, almost all decades within 1915 to 1965 were even warmer at both the southwestern (Godthab Nuuk) and southeastern (Ammassalik) coasts of Greenland.” Chylek, P., et al., 2006. Greenland warming of 1920-1930 and 1995-2005. Geophysical Research Letters, 33.

Summer (June, July, August) average temperature at Angmagssalik, Greenland
(data obtained from http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/).​

 

[david dissadent]

Again what is your point, that the melting does not exist? Or that the melting is not due to the increase in temperature in Southern Greenland???

You have insinuated that the satalite data lies about the extent of ice cap melting based on a single report from a single yacht. Now you post data about southern Greenland surface temperatures. Your arguments veer all over the place.

 

[bigfish]

The BBC lie machine in action:

The most direct shipping route from Europe to Asia is fully clear of ice for the first time since records began [records began only 30 years ago. bf], the European Space Agency (Esa) says.

Historically, the Northwest Passage linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans has been ice-bound through the year.

But the agency says ice cover has been steadily shrinking, and this summer's reduction has made the route navigable.
...
The Northwest Passage is one of the most fabled sea routes in the world - a short cut from Europe to Asia through the Canadian Arctic.

Recent years have seen a marked shrinkage in its ice cover, but this year it was extreme, Esa says.

It says this made the passage "fully navigable" for the first time since monitoring began in 1978.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6995999.stm

But the lie machine reported the NW passage open in 2000

A Canadian police patrol boat has completed a voyage through the fabled Northwest Passage without encountering any pack ice.
....
The Canadian patrol boat the St Roch II - renamed after an earlier Canadian expedition in 1944 - made the journey in nine weeks, less than half the time expected.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/918448.stm

Here's a report of another vessel navigating the NW passage successfully in 1977

Several yachts have gone through the Northwest Passage in recent years, perhaps made easier of late by the Arctic ice melt. But the first to do so - in 1977 - was the 18-ton, 13-meter ketch Williwaw, designed for Willy de Roos by Louis Van de Wiele.

http://www.setsail.com/s_logs/deridder/dragon54.html

A 47 ft aluminium yacht, Northabout, captained by Jarlath Cunnane, completed the journey in 2005.

Earlier attempts also succeeded

1903-6 Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen

1940 Canadian RCMP officer Henry Larsen

1957 the United States Coast Guard cutter Storis

http://www.arctictony.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=41&Itemid=51

 

[dash_two]

Several yachts have gone through the Northwest Passage in recent years, perhaps made easier of late by the Arctic ice melt. But the first to do so - in 1977 - was the 18-ton, 13-meter ketch Williwaw, designed for Willy de Roos by Louis Van de Wiele.

Doesn't look all that ice-free to me:

The caption to the above picture reads: "Williwaw's hull being squeezed upward by the pressure of the ice, revealing the reinforced bow and bobstay guard. (Photo from Le Passage du Nord-Ouest.)"

That's from the link provided in the post above:

http://www.setsail.com/s_logs/deridder/dragon54.html

 

[dash_two]

Earlier attempts also succeeded

1903-6 Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen

Amundsen spent most of the voyage stuck in the ice. Hence 1903-6.

 

[dash_two]

1957 the United States Coast Guard cutter Storis

You mean the icebreaker Storis?

The ’57 Storis crew encountered polar bears, attempted to blast ice with TNT (which didn’t work) and, at one point, rescued a Coast Guard helicopter pilot whose aircraft crashed into the icy sea shortly after takeoff.

Again, it doesn't seem like it was what you'd call ice-free. From here:

http://www.storisbramblespar.org/decommissioningofstoris.html

 

[dash_two]

1940 Canadian RCMP officer Henry Larsen

Ah, Henry Larsen of the St Roch:

World War II provided Larsen an opportunity to follow in the footsteps of his hero and compatriot. In 1940 the St Roch was sent on a mission to travel from the Western Arctic to the Eastern Arctic. The St. Roch completed the West to East voyage in 1942, taking 28 months to do so. For most of these 28 months the St Roch was frozen in.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Larsen

 

[dash_two]

A 47 ft aluminium yacht, Northabout, captained by Jarlath Cunnane, completed the journey in 2005.

From their own account of the voyage:

The first two days went grand, through Coronation Gulf, Dolphin and Union Straight, passing all the names from the pages of exploration history. Then in Amundson Gulf we met the ice, more or less where the current ice-charts had predicted. Progress slowed as we banged and shimmied through it. We can now get through about 5/10, depending on the ice type. Ice comes in various forms, old hard hummocked multi-year or softish(ish ) 1 year , small floes easily broken or pushed, or big immovable ones. 5/10 ice would give the impression that there is 50% water showing and 50% ice-and there is-on average. But it's not evenly spread. In the 5/10 or even 4/10 there can be denser bands, and these are the problem. Frank stands on the mast spreaders spotting leads, Kevin and Mike wield our long ice-pole, the off-watch try to sleep ( fat chance with the banging and changing engine-revs ).

http://www.northabout.com/nwp/ProgRep10.htm

Getting better - getting warmer! - but not exactly ice-free.

 

[dash_two]

So to recap, Amundsen, Larsen, and the Williwaw defintely got stuck in the ice. The icebreaker Storis seems to have run into some sort of ice-related bother, prompting use of TNT; and the Northabout encountered a mix of 50% water, 50% ice.

That leaves a further voyage, that of the Roch II, and I hate to leave a job unfinished. You're a silly old sausage bigfish, as is so often the case, for thoughtlessly regurgitating the above examples without bothering to find out more about them, but in the case of the Roch II there are mitigating circumstances.

The BBC report does indeed state: "A Canadian police patrol boat [the Roch II] has completed a voyage through the fabled Northwest Passage without encountering any pack ice."

But a look at photos of the voyage on this website . . .

http://www3.bc.sympatico.ca/VE0NWP/MainPage.htm

. . . shows pictures of the ship making its way through what is described as 'pack ice'. Not enough to require the services of the Roch II's accompanying icebreaker 'Simon Fraser' perhaps, but there does seem to be quite a lot of it bobbing around in the last picture on that page.

If we were to arrange all those examples in a time series, one might well get the impression that navigation through the Northwest Passage has become progressively easier over the last 100-odd years.

 

[bigfish]

Sure, all of the vessels encountered problems along the way, but is it any different today? has any vessel successfully navigated the NW passage this year without encountering similar problems, do you know?

 

[dash_two]

I've no idea whether anyone has navigated the Northwest Passage with ease this year or not. But it does seem easier than in Amundsen's day. I watched a telly program about his voyage a few weeks ago, and it came across as a horrific ordeal, nothing like what the Northabout encountered in 2005. Also, I wonder what counts as 'ice-free' from the satellite's point of view. Is it the absence of solid pack ice? How does the Northabout's 50/50 mix of water and lumps of ice show up?

Edited to add: the last picture on the website about the Roch II in 2000 shows the accompaning icebreaker 'Simon Fraser' forging ahead (you can tell by the colour of the hull), so perhaps it was clearing the way for the Roch II at that point. If so, this would imply that the BBC's summary of the voyage was inaccurate in that regard. The Roch II may have found the going easy most of the way, but the icebreaker still came in handy.

 

[bigfish]

I've no idea whether anyone has navigated the Northwest Passage with ease this year or not.

The report from the lie machine states that the passage is "fully navigable" for the first time in 30 years. However, no one appears to have made the journey to confirm that it really is. Weird that, don't you think?