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Honda set to close Swindon car plant

Think I’ll get my 2022 car order in early. By the time it gets passed border checks I might get it by mid 2023.
 
Sad news for the workers. :(

By all accounts they are moving production to Japan, because of the trade deal with the EU means tariffs are being reduced to zero for importing cars from Japan, so no need for a European production base.
 
The UK car industry's probably fucked.

Bring back British Leyland. Kids these days don't know they're born with all these satnavs and climate controls and reversing cameras and wing mirrors that have better heating systems than my house. We need to get back to the good old days of rattling about in cars that are more gap than panel, that will only start in ambient temperatures between 14 and 17 degrees celsius, cars you can have in any colour you like as long as it's beige. We need to get back to the times when every completed car journey came with a sense of joy and wonderment at the simple fact you'd survived.
 
Pretty sure the Swindon factory appeared, likely assisted with government grants/tax relief, after the closure of the railway works in the 1980s which was the town’s major employer up to that point. Another generation kicked in the teeth. I wonder who they’ll bribe to set up there next, an Amazon warehouse?
 
Sad news for the workers. :(

By all accounts they are moving production to Japan, because of the trade deal with the EU means tariffs are being reduced to zero for importing cars from Japan, so no need for a European production base.

Yes.

It has just gotten cheaper to make in Japan and export to the EU.

While it is likely getting more expensive to make in UK and export to the EU.
 
Yes.

It has just gotten cheaper to make in Japan and export to the EU.

While it is likely getting more expensive to make in UK and export to the EU.

The first point you make is absolutely correct - Japan can now export cars directly into the EU without tariffs meaning cars can be produced in Japan and directly shipped into Europe.

Your second point is a massive overreach. Where are tariffs between the UK and Europe proposed?

Finally, the bottom has dropped out of the diesel car market in the UK. This problem haunts JLR too. The press stories I’ve seen skip over this basic supply and demand reality
 
..
Your second point is a massive overreach. Where are tariffs between the UK and Europe proposed?
It seems quite likely at the moment that the UK will crash out of the EU without a deal, which means returning to WTO rules and under WTO rules my understanding is that there will be tariffs.

Finally, the bottom has dropped out of the diesel car market in the UK. This problem haunts JLR too. The press stories I’ve seen skip over this basic supply and demand reality
I don't know what proportion of Honda Swindon's output was diesel.
 
Noone knows what it'll cost to export from the UK to the EU because noone in charge has a fucking clue. Porsche apparently think it might be 10% as that's what they're asking customers to agree to in potential surcharges.

The EU/JP FTA (which the UK govt voted for) enables movement, it doesn’t cause it. Honda manufacturing doesn't magically all come home to Japan if all costs are made equal.

Diesel is also a bobbins excuse. Just think about it for about two seconds.
 
Honda Europe financial performance:

RCQ7qsi7.jpg


Not a very good return on capital but still in profit, with the UK facility responsible for improvement.
 
Terrible news. Fingers crossed they can get another car producer to take the site over. My civic was built there so increasingly feels like a part of history now!

So.. what about about the B word? Was this a Brexit or no Brexit decision? Sounds like more of a global production decision to consolidate in Japan (fuck the environment obviously - shows how little these companies really care).
 
Noone knows what it'll cost to export from the UK to the EU because noone in charge has a fucking clue. Porsche apparently think it might be 10% as that's what they're asking customers to agree to in potential surcharges.

The EU/JP FTA (which the UK govt voted for) enables movement, it doesn’t cause it. Honda manufacturing doesn't magically all come home to Japan if all costs are made equal.

Diesel is also a bobbins excuse. Just think about it for about two seconds.

Of course it’s a shit excuse but they can’t just say capital flight can they?

Your point about the free trade agreement is however definitely ‘bobbins’. The whole point of it is to cause precisely this type of movement.
 
So.. what about about the B word? Was this a Brexit or no Brexit decision? Sounds like more of a global production decision to consolidate in Japan (fuck the environment obviously - shows how little these companies really care).

That about nails it. But in the world of remain Brexit must be the reason because it’s what everything single job loss must now be blamed on (especially when an EU trade deal - again - is the real reason)
 
Nope you are going to have to tell me :)
Imagine you are a thousand years old and clinically dead. At the start of each and every week you crash your automatic diesel Honda Civic into the bollards protecting the entrance to Home Bargains, writing it off, and you buy a new automatic diesel Honda Civic. But wait! This week it turns out diesel is the great Satan and Honest John of The Daily Telegraph says you shouldn't buy one any more. What could you possibly buy instead?

[ ] an automatic petrol Honda Civic
[ ] an automatic petrol Honda Civic
[ ] an automatic petrol Honda Civic
[ ] an automatic petrol Honda Civic
[ ] Leave the European Union
[ ] an automatic petrol Honda Civic
 
Bring back British Leyland. Kids these days don't know they're born with all these satnavs and climate controls and reversing cameras and wing mirrors that have better heating systems than my house. We need to get back to the good old days of rattling about in cars that are more gap than panel, that will only start in ambient temperatures between 14 and 17 degrees celsius, cars you can have in any colour you like as long as it's beige. We need to get back to the times when every completed car journey came with a sense of joy and wonderment at the simple fact you'd survived.
It wasn't called Beige it was called Bold as Brass, I had a 1.8L Morris Marina in that colour, I was driving along the road one when the sump pan literally just fell off the bottom of the engine, you don't get
features lie that with your German cars.
 
Imagine you are a thousand years old and clinically dead. At the start of each and every week you crash your automatic diesel Honda Civic into the bollards protecting the entrance to Home Bargains, writing it off, and you buy a new automatic diesel Honda Civic. But wait! This week it turns out diesel is the great Satan and Honest John of The Daily Telegraph says you shouldn't buy one any more. What could you possibly buy instead?

[ ] an automatic petrol Honda Civic
[ ] an automatic petrol Honda Civic
[ ] an automatic petrol Honda Civic
[ ] an automatic petrol Honda Civic
[ ] Leave the European Union
[ ] an automatic petrol Honda Civic
Ok, but I didn't myself mention diesel as a reason for Honda closing.
They might have been caught out by its decline though, as JLR etc also were.
 
Ok, but I didn't myself mention diesel as a reason for Honda closing.
They might have been caught out by its decline though, as JLR etc also were.
JLR make products - SUVs and big cars - that are or were strongly oriented towards diesel powertrains, as was standard in the sector, and were slow in making competitive petrol or hybrid offerings available. Honda make mostly small cars that are offered with a range of powertrains, often petrol. Their lacklustre sales are much more because they operate in an abandoned middle price point, neither cheap nor premium.
 
Of course it’s a shit excuse but they can’t just say capital flight can they?

Your point about the free trade agreement is however definitely ‘bobbins’. The whole point of it is to cause precisely this type of movement.
There's a benefit to globally distributed manufacturing, given the effect of currency fluctuations on export prices, so concentration of all Honda manufacturing in Japan - an expensive economy - isn't exactly an automatic outcome. I could be wrong but AFAIK all 5 door Civics sold globally, including in Japan, are made in Swindon. That or some parallel has been the case for years. The FTA removes the tariff-driven reasoning for local presence but it doesn't make Japanese production suddenly a great idea, especially not if there's capital expense to relocate. However if you do expect to be subject to tariffs, because you're in the UK with no trade deal, it is absolutely time to fuck off.

You can argue the toss on all of this, and people will for each and every closure. But when the industry in its entirety - which was successful and growing - is gone from the UK, it'll be easy to point at before & after Brexit, and hard to claim "would have happened anyway". It's not like there's no FTA precedent elsewhere (or one for diesel for that matter). For example NAFTA spread US vehicle production slightly across the continent but it certainly didn't kill it. In a couple of years it looks like Britain will be done making cars again.
 
Larry Elliott mentions the trade deal between Japan and the EU and yet still reckons it's a Brexit decision. I reckon that's an order from up high as it doesn't tally with most of the other stuff he's written or even some of the rest of the article.

The real killer is the trade deal - why would Japanese firms bother building in the EU with european growth slowing, higher risk, further distance from the asian markets and desire to build in Japan when possible for quality control purposes. As well as the benefits of mass production and centralisation. Mazda does it from Japan with no problems... they don't even have an EU plant. The argument against this goes that Britain in the EU could have lobbied from within and changed the deal or guaranteed the Swindon plant as part of it. I really don't see that as a realistic possibility any more than short term.

The most depressing thing really is there is no imagination currently for what could replace Honda or how similarly high tech industry could be developed/kept in places like Swindon.
 
There's a benefit to globally distributed manufacturing, given the effect of currency fluctuations on export prices, so concentration of all Honda manufacturing in Japan - an expensive economy - isn't exactly an automatic outcome. I could be wrong but AFAIK all 5 door Civics sold globally, including in Japan, are made in Swindon. That or some parallel has been the case for years. The FTA removes the tariff-driven reasoning for local presence but it doesn't make Japanese production suddenly a great idea, especially not if there's capital expense to relocate. However if you do expect to be subject to tariffs, because you're in the UK with no trade deal, it is absolutely time to fuck off.

You can argue the toss on all of this, and people will for each and every closure. But when the industry in its entirety - which was successful and growing - is gone from the UK, it'll be easy to point at before & after Brexit, and hard to claim "would have happened anyway". It's not like there's no FTA precedent elsewhere (or one for diesel for that matter). For example NAFTA spread US vehicle production slightly across the continent but it certainly didn't kill it. In a couple of years it looks like Britain will be done making cars again.

The car industry as an employer peaked long ago. And whilst the 3,500 jobs at risk here is a tragedy for every family affected - and something that I hope Unite will effectively challenge - the blunt reality is that since joining the EU these numbers are a drop in the ocean. Over 502,000 were employed in the sector in 1971 now its 162,000. This sector remain important however - and particularly here in the West Midlands.

The long run decline of the sector in Europe and the US can be easily plotted against planned obsolescence and capital flight strategies by major employers in the sector as they shifted work to low pay, non union zones over the period. Add in three current realities about the UK market - a decline in the diesel car market, less people are buying new cars in the middle range and long term supply chain saving measures - and the reductive argument of remainers that’s it’s all about Brexit not only looks crass but it also consciously let’s capital off the hook absolving it of blame.

Across social media there has almost been a celebration of these job losses as though workers in Swindon ‘had it coming’ for voting to leave. If there are any circumstances that lead people with allegedly liberal or left politics to welcome job losses - and blame workers in Swindon rather than capital - then there are some seriously fucked up politics around
 
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Big clients for my wife's employer, (japanese insurance), certainly means job losses there, probably a move of the office to Europe. Brexshit.
 
It's not 162k, which may be directly employed, it's 850+k employed in jobs in or dependent on automotive in the UK. The historical figures aren't comparable either because of the shift from marque manufacturer to supplier.

You've done this before but you seem to want present UK automotive as in terminal decline since British fucking Leyland, and you are massively wrong. In the context of everything that's happened to manufacturing and the UK economy, it's been a major modern success and now it's probably fucked, and it was not a given that this happened.
 
Bring back British Leyland. Kids these days don't know they're born with all these satnavs and climate controls and reversing cameras and wing mirrors that have better heating systems than my house. We need to get back to the good old days of rattling about in cars that are more gap than panel, that will only start in ambient temperatures between 14 and 17 degrees celsius, cars you can have in any colour you like as long as it's beige. We need to get back to the times when every completed car journey came with a sense of joy and wonderment at the simple fact you'd survived.

Not beige, I believe it was called Old English White for the Austin/Morris group in BL. I thought Bold as Brass was a yellow'ish colour?

Terrible news. Fingers crossed they can get another car producer to take the site over. My civic was built there so increasingly feels like a part of history now!

So.. what about about the B word? Was this a Brexit or no Brexit decision? Sounds like more of a global production decision to consolidate in Japan (fuck the environment obviously - shows how little these companies really care).

I wonder if Japan is expecting a global downturn next few years or so, and just wanted to bring jobs back to its homeland?
 
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It's not 162k, which may be directly employed, it's 850+k employed in jobs in or dependent on automotive in the UK. The historical figures aren't comparable either because of the shift from marque manufacturer to supplier.

You've done this before but you seem to want present UK automotive as in terminal decline since British fucking Leyland, and you are massively wrong. In the context of everything that's happened to manufacturing and the UK economy, it's been a major modern success and now it's probably fucked, and it was not a given that this happened.

I’ve ‘done it before’ because it’s important that people understand that the collapse of the sector isn’t a recent development that has occurred as a result of people voted to leave a failing trading bloc. It’s a slow motion decline with periodic sharper cyclical structural downturns in late capitalist economies.

I’m glad you’ve flagged the wider sector because this is where the major impact of capital flight will bite. We don’t ‘make cars’ we asssmble them. It’s where the parts are made that is critical in terms of wider employment in the sector and in assembly. This is why the FTA between Japan and Europe is so damaging for reasons which should be blindingly obvious to those desperate to blame Brexit but seemingly aren’t.
 
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