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Football betting and odds, discussion and other gambling stuff

In financial terms, it's like buying an option rather than a future -- you are paying for the right to get off the rollercoaster at the time of your choosing. But there is a premium attached to that right. If you want the right to select 20 distinct exit points, you're paying a lot for it.

That option value can be well worth it, but not if you have pre-selected the strategy of remaining until the end. If you want to do that -- if the intermediary stages have no value to you -- you're much better off selecting a bet that just builds the whole loss chance into a single hit.
 
In financial terms, it's like buying an option rather than a future -- you are paying for the right to get off the rollercoaster at the time of your choosing. But there is a premium attached to that right. If you want the right to select 20 distinct exit points, you're paying a lot for it.

That option value can be well worth it, but not if you have pre-selected the strategy of remaining until the end. If you want to do that -- if the intermediary stages have no value to you -- you're much better off selecting a bet that just builds the whole loss chance into a single hit.

Yeah, the idea of rolling it on day-by-day makes no sense if you're going to lock yourself in until hitting £150, from a purely mathematical pov. But, I guess that overlooks the fun aspect, and the psychological impact of a lot of small 'wins', that would not come from a 15/2 bet on the first day of each month.
 
In financial terms, it's like buying an option rather than a future -- you are paying for the right to get off the rollercoaster at the time of your choosing. But there is a premium attached to that right. If you want the right to select 20 distinct exit points, you're paying a lot for it.

That option value can be well worth it, but not if you have pre-selected the strategy of remaining until the end. If you want to do that -- if the intermediary stages have no value to you -- you're much better off selecting a bet that just builds the whole loss chance into a single hit.

In fact, even if you wanted to have a combination of, say, 20 bets (notwithstanding the massive advantage you're giving the bookie), you'd be better of placing it as one bet on day one (if you plan to stay in until the end, anyway), than a series of bets on different days, since many bookies offer a bonus on combination bets!
 
Going good this evening! Some lower league football matches were at half time when I got back from work and some teams were up 2-0 so I backed the 2 winning teams to win, turned it into 54, then before going to the shops I backed another three teams that were all up by 2 goals or over at around 60 minutes, and my 54 is now 70.83 :) think I'm gonna withdraw my 20 so I've definitely broke even, then Aim for the 150 mark :)
 
Whilt I agree that combining bets leverages the effect of the overround book to the punter's disadvantage, I think you've underestimated the size of the phenomenon.

For example, take two snooker matches: In match 1, between players A and B, both have an equal chance of winning. The same in Match 2 between players C and D. In a 'fair' book, you'd be offered evens for each. In reality, there'd be an overround book, meaning you'd probably get, say, 5/6 on any of the players winning their respective matches. This would give the bookie a total book for each of the matches of 109.09% (100 × (6⁄11 + 6⁄11)) i.e. 9.09% overround.

The combined outcome of those two matches could see either of the following pairs winning: AC, AD, BC, BD. Since all four are equally likely, the true odds of any one would be 1/4 (and 3/1 against), meaning a 'fair' price of 4/1. That would result in a £10 winning £40 (10 x (3/1 + 1)). Whereas, the actual return in the overround book (using the figures in the paragraph above), would be £33.61 i.e. 10 × (5/6 + 1) × (5/6 + 1). That represents odds of 2.361/1 i.e. 29.752% (100/3.3611), which when applied to all four outcomes gives the bookie a book of 1.1901 i.e. an overround of 19.01% i.e. his edge has more than doubled, compare to each of the singles!

On a double, the overround (0) can be calculated as 0 = B1 × B2 × 100 − 100, where B1 and B2 is the whole of each respective book e.g O = 1.0909 × 1.0909 × 100 − 100 = 19.01%. Obviously, the more in the accumulator, the greater the book gets overround, calculated for a bet of y selections as B1 × B2 × ... × By × 100 − 100.

To do as the OP hopes i.e. to turn £20 into £150 with 10/11 prices (at the longest), would take a minimum of 20 bets. If we assume a reasonable overround of 10% on each, the combined overound accross the whole is massive: something like 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 100 -100 = 640% i.e a total book of 740%. No wonder bookies love it!



This is all very well, but at he end of the day its £20 ( or £40 in my case) This thread is not really about vaules or the bookies edge but more about who can string 10 / 15/ 20 winners together. If you get to 5-6 bets up, you practically betting with the bookies money anyway. Your risk, will always remain at £20.

If anyone can string together off odds at . 7-4, 2-1 3-1, then please go ahead and show us how its done.

As much as I love your fancy mathematics, its kind of missing the point.
 
This is all very well, but at he end of the day its £20 ( or £40 in my case) This threads not really about vales or the bookies edge but more about who can string 10 / 15/ 20 winners together. If you get to 5-6 bets up, you practically betting with the bookies money anyway. Your risk, will always remain at £20.

As much as I love your fancy mathematics, its kind of missing the point.
Nobody understand your wise level of intellect :D
 
In fact, even if you wanted to have a combination of, say, 20 bets (notwithstanding the massive advantage you're giving the bookie), you'd be better of placing it as one bet on day one (if you plan to stay in until the end, anyway), than a series of bets on different days, since many bookies offer a bonus on combination bets!

and I don't agree with this..., looking for 20 bets in 1 day means you'll be forced to bet on things you know nothing about. Maybe on the weekend and if you follow all 4 football leagues. But the point of the 1 bet a day is that you can be presented with a few bets and try to cherry pick the best one.
 
This is all very well, but at he end of the day its £20 ( or £40 in my case) This thread is not really about vaules or the bookies edge but more about who can string 10 / 15/ 20 winners together. If you get to 5-6 bets up, you practically betting with the bookies money anyway. Your risk, will always remain at £20.

If anyone can string together off odds at . 7-4, 2-1 3-1, then please go ahead and show us how its done.

As much as I love your fancy mathematics, its kind of missing the point.

We get it. You like magic :p
 
Going good this evening! Some lower league football matches were at half time when I got back from work and some teams were up 2-0 so I backed the 2 winning teams to win, turned it into 54, then before going to the shops I backed another three teams that were all up by 2 goals or over at around 60 minutes, and my 54 is now 70.83 :) think I'm gonna withdraw my 20 so I've definitely broke even, then Aim for the 150 mark :)

I'd go £25 each way on Azure Amour in the 20:10 at Kempton. You can still get 11/4 with some bookies. If it places (2md or 3rd), you're only a tenner down, but if it wins you'll more than hit the target. You get good value, a chance to hit the target, and the 'insurance' of a place payout (since you seem to prefer to stay alive over winning/losing).
 
This is all very well, but at he end of the day its £20 ( or £40 in my case) This thread is not really about vaules or the bookies edge but more about who can string 10 / 15/ 20 winners together. If you get to 5-6 bets up, you practically betting with the bookies money anyway. Your risk, will always remain at £20.

If anyone can string together off odds at . 7-4, 2-1 3-1, then please go ahead and show us how its done.

As much as I love your fancy mathematics, its kind of missing the point.

My point wasn't that you shouldn't do it; from the outset, I agreed with you nthat it's just a bit of fun, rather than a serious scheme to make money. And that's cool. My post was aimed at the person I quoted, since he was talking about the maths of accumulators and overround books. :)
 
As butchersapron said, we could all pitch in a £5 or something and treat its as a knockout competition. Last man standing takes the pot!

The trouble with that is, if you're betting on liquid markets with little sentiment, then you have to assume the ratios between the bookie's prices for the participants in any given event reflect their expert assessment of the true odds, such that the challenge becomes largely about finding the very shortest priced propositions every day.
 
I'd go £25 each way on Azure Amour in the 20:10 at Kempton. You can still get 11/4 with some bookies. If it places (2md or 3rd), you're only a tenner down, but if it wins you'll more than hit the target. You get good value, a chance to hit the target, and the 'insurance' of a place payout (since you seem to prefer to stay alive over winning/losing).



DO you ever go for the place bet rather then each way?... That's another way I like to bet. smallish fields and find a strong horse to finish in the top 3/4. Not that I know anything about flats, NH only for me.
 
The trouble with that is, if you're betting on liquid markets with little sentiment, then you have to assume the ratios between the bookie's prices for the participants in any given event reflect their expert assessment of the true odds, such that the challenge becomes largely about finding the very shortest priced propositions every day.


Yea I agree, all bets would have to be pre market. No backing in play a team at 88' who are 3-0 up and priced at 1.001
 
I'd go £25 each way on Azure Amour in the 20:10 at Kempton. You can still get 11/4 with some bookies. If it places (2md or 3rd), you're only a tenner down, but if it wins you'll more than hit the target. You get good value, a chance to hit the target, and the 'insurance' of a place payout (since you seem to prefer to stay alive over winning/losing).

Placed. You'd still have £40 for tomorrow, though!
 
DO you ever go for the place bet rather then each way?... That's another way I like to bet. smallish fields and find a strong horse to finish in the top 3/4. Not that I know anything about flats, NH only for me.

No, not really. More likely to bet without a named horse to win.
 
I made a £20 on an American Football game I went to see, on Sunday.

I lost, but checked the bookies site anyway.

They fucked up the result, and I won £200.:)
 
I wonder how often it happens... I don't think I've really ever checked back after a loss.
Well it's certainly never happened to me, not online anyway. The only time I ever got the better of a bookie's mistake was in a shop, when a dopey assistant gave me far higher odds than I should have got - and then my bet won. But that was just one individual bet. I'm amazed that they made such an error online which could cost them a lot of money in multiple payouts. I think you were very lucky.
 
Well it's certainly never happened to me, not online anyway. The only time I ever got the better of a bookie's mistake was in a shop, when a dopey assistant gave me far higher odds than I should have got - and then my bet won. But that was just one individual bet. I'm amazed that they made such an error online which could cost them a lot of money in multiple payouts. I think you were very lucky.
I agree :D
 
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