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ffsear said:
Well i'm going to bet as i see fit, but i won't be capped at 1.10. If you don't like it then sorry. But i will still prove my point that you can make money on short odds
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Fair enough, you've declined my wager on the efficacy of the scheme you set out in the opening post. I don't blame you.

Let's see if you do prove your point, in the long run. For the record, I don't doubt that it is possible (albeit poor value) to do it occasionally. The same as I could hit one number on roulette, or buy a winning lotto ticket now and again.
 
kabbes said:
Whilst you're 100% in the right about the risk factors, this particular experiment would prove little. The simulation error is too great, and there is too much systemic bias arising from which of you is better at identifying value propositions.

It'd leave it if I were you, mate. It's a simple enough point you are making -- if on average your bet pays less than true value, you'll do worse by compounding that loss than by taking a single hit. If people want to fly in the face of that, what skin is it off your nose?
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It wasn't meant as a scientific experiment. But you're right that, in this instance it would come down (at least in part) to which of us is beter at finding value. But I would have a significant headstart becasue of the structural weaknesses of his scheme e.g. I need only find it once a month, it's arguably easier to find on one-off longer propositions, the fact that he's compounding his disadvantage handicaps him from the beginning etc..

It's all academic, anyway - he's bottled it!
 
BCBlues said:
Im on Millwall to beat FC Fylde this weekend, its 2/5 which given the league standings is decent.
I normally look for teams that have just hit form and still get decent odds, Crawley and Accrington most recently.

Ive been following this thread since ffsear put it up. I like to see how these schemes go and last season followed a couple where teams hadnt drawn for a while so punters bet on it doubling the stake until they win. Theres some scary bets have to go on if you pick a team who just go on winning or losing. I have seen people do this in Casinos on Red and Black in Roulette.

As a tester i had a go at this scheme (loosely) with a £1 starter. After ffs bad start (worse than Chelsea's :D) I wasnt too convinced but adidaswoody restored my faith. After 5 days and 11 bets i now have £6.05, i'll top this up to £10 for the Millwall bet and restart the scheme next week if i win. I had three wins in play in the Mexico v Nigeria U17 game alone, i wouldnt have paid any attention to this game otherwise. I got brave and doubled up on Napoli and Bilbao last night. Its been good fun all week, something Athos is totally missing the point of.
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See mate, imagine if either of us had the bottle and instead of you using a pound and me using 20, we used 100 and 200, we'd be up a substantial amount of money right now haha xD
 
ffsear said:
We can do both!
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Thread takes off. :cool:

As an aside, this thread came to mind when I was talking to a mate in pub last night about various probability things. I didn't really get the decimal odds style. Old way of presenting them, still makes more sence to me. I've not done exchange sites, which I guess is where they're used now.
 
Athos said:
Incidentally, why do you want to increase from 1.07 to 1.2? Why not 1.5? Or 3? Or 8.5?
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Because your saying you get bets at 6/1 and 7/1 and constricting me to a max of 1.1 which is not mathmatically fair.

If i have to bet between 1.04 and 1.1 - That means i'm betting on 96.2% and 90.9% probabilities.

Meaning you bet at the other end of the spectrum.. I.e probabilities of 9.1% to 3.8% - In decimal odds thats between 11 and 25.

Yet you saying you get to place bets at 6/1 and 7/1, which represents 12.5% - 14.3% Not exactly a fair experiment is it. Basically, you haven't thought it though.

If you want me to only bet at 1.04 to 1.1, then you have to bet at 11 to 25


Not me bottling it, i want a fair fight that's all.
 
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ffsear said:
Because your saying you get bets at 6/1 and 7/1 and constricting me to a max of 1.1 which is not mathmatically fair.

If i have to bet between 1.04 and 1.1 - That means i'm betting on 96.2% and 90.9% probabilities.

Meaning you should bet at the other end of the spectrum.. I.e probabilities of 9.1% to 3.8% - In decimal odds thats between 11 and 25..

Yet you saying you want to place bets at 6/1 and 7/1, which represents 12.5% - 14.3% Not exactly a fair experiment is it.
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What would that prove?

My point was that it's better to try to hit the target with one bet. So, to make £130 (i.e. to get to £150) my one bet needs to be 13/2; there mightn't be enough at that specific price, so I gave myself a range. But I guess if it was converted to a decimal price, I could accept the same range i.e.5.3%.

If you weren't competing with me, would you still want to increase from your original 1.05 to 1.1, al the way up to 1.2? If so, why? And why stop there?

And what's unfair about you backing the sysytem you lauded in the first post, and me backing one of my own choosing? Especially since I'm forced to work within the paramaters you chose i.e. to continue betting until I turn £20 into £15o in a month?

You're deffo bottling. ;)
 
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Athos said:
If you weren't competing with me, would you still want to increase from your original 1.05 to 1.1, al the way up to 1.2? If so, why? And why stop there?
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I'm not competing with you, because what you've come up with is a load of nonsense. Refer to my previous post, and if you still don't understand, then i can't help you. Its not the first mathematical blunder you've made on this thread.

I will continue again as i said on 26/11/15 with this "system" (as you like to call it) Odds will mostly be at 1.05-1.1, but if i see (what i determine to be value at) 1.2 1.25, i will take it. But all bets will remain at short odds on.

What i won't have is you telling me what i can and can't bet on.

Lets just agree to disagree and move on. By all means post your longer odds bets here if you want .
 
ffsear said:
I'm not competing with you, because what you've come up with is a load of nonsense. Refer to my previous post, and if you still don't understand, then i can't help you. Its not the first mathematical blunder you've made on this thread.

I will continue again as i said on 26/11/15 with this "system" (as you like to call it) Odds will mostly be at 1.05-1.1, but if i see (what i determine to be value at) 1.2 1.25, i will take it. But all bets will remain at short odds on.

What i won't have is you telling me what i can and can't bet on.

Lets just agree to disagree and move on. By all means post your longer odds bets here if you want .
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Why do you want to move from 1.07 to 1.2? Why stop there? Why not go higher, still?
 
ffsear said:
I'm not competing with you, because what you've come up with is a load of nonsense. Refer to my previous post, and if you still don't understand, then i can't help you. Its not the first mathematical blunder you've made on this thread.

I will continue again as i said on 26/11/15 with this "system" (as you like to call it) Odds will mostly be at 1.05-1.1, but if i see (what i determine to be value at) 1.2 1.25, i will take it. But all bets will remain at short odds on.

What i won't have is you telling me what i can and can't bet on.

Lets just agree to disagree and move on. By all means post your longer odds bets here if you want .
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Yeah, fair enough. No point arguing; either you don't understand, or you're wilfully missing the point. Look forward to tracking your progress from 26/11 - see if you can turn that £40 loss around.
 
adidaswoody said:
You can't even work out 80 minus 40 divided by 2, why are you trying to pretend you understand fractions and decimals?
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Very good mate. I thought you claimed to have won £60, rather than £80, that's all. In any event, I suspect you're a bullshitter, and won nothing (as well as being a know-nothing mug).
 
ffsear, I've been thinking about this. I reckon I got a bit hot under the collar, for which I apologise. I think your plan has some significant flaws as a money making proposition, but I see that it can be good fun.

I think my idea of a wager would have been unworkable. But, as a bit of fun, I will try to turn £20 into £150 (or thereabouts, since my chances of finding something at exactly 13/2 are slim) using the very opposite of your scheme i.e. by doing it in one bet, every month (or two, if I fail early). (Truth is that I wouldn't bet like that in real life, and I suspect we'll both be down after a year, but it could be a bit of fun to add the competition element.)

You've already done this month, so to catch up, I'll post mine for this month, now:

£20 to win Seamour in the 1530 at Doncaster, at 6/1 with BetVictor.
 
Athos said:
ffsear, I've been thinking about this. I reckon I got a bit hot under the collar, for which I apologise. I think your plan has some significant flaws as a money making proposition, but I see that it can be good fun.

I think my idea of a wager would have been unworkable. But, as a bit of fun, I will try to turn £20 into £150 (or thereabouts, since my chances of finding something at exactly 13/2 are slim) using the very opposite of your scheme i.e. by doing it in one bet, every month (or two, if I fail early). (Truth is that I wouldn't bet like that in real life, and I suspect we'll both be down after a year, but it could be a bit of fun to add the competition element.)

You've already done this month, so to catch up, I'll post mine for this month, now:

£20 to win Seamour in the 1530 at Doncaster, at 6/1 with BetVictor.
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Good luck with that Athos. :thumbs:
 
BCBlues said:
This time next year we'll be millionaires :)
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Here's hoping!!

Athos said:
Very good mate. I thought you claimed to have won £60, rather than £80, that's all. In any event, I suspect you're a bullshitter, and won nothing (as well as being a know-nothing mug).
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Jealousy is a disgusting trait to have, I hope you fix it soon, and just to prove I'm not a bullshitter.
image.jpg image.jpg
Here's a couple screenies off my progression.
Not that I have to prove anything to you, you arrogant tosser.
I just didn't want people thinking I'm a liar on here as its the one thing I am not.
 
adidaswoody said:
Here's hoping!!


Jealousy is a disgusting trait to have, I hope you fix it soon, and just to prove I'm not a bullshitter.
View attachment 79296 View attachment 79297
Here's a couple screenies off my progression.
Not that I have to prove anything to you, you arrogant tosser.
I just didn't want people thinking I'm a liar on here as its the one thing I am not.
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That doesn't actually prove what you say you did, though, does it? For instance, that you withdrew the original £20 and then turned the blanace into an £80.

But, even if you could post screenshots to show that, so what? Not only did you not follow the OPs scheme - there's one bet in there at 4/7 (i.e. 1.57, rather than 1.07), and you quit before the £150 - but, also, even if you had succeeded once, that doesn't detract from the fact that the maths show it's a crap long-term prospect. That'd be like saying winning a tenner on the lottery proves the wisdom of buying a ticket every week!

My point was the OPs scheme, which relys on stringing together tens of bets at really short odds to turn £20 into £150, is a poor strategy in the long term; it wasn't that it's not possible, as a one off, to turn £20 into £100, by making about half the number of bets, at much, much longer prices (which is what you claim to have done). :facepalm:
 
adidaswoody said:
How unfortunate, but your right, his scheme was bad and yours has been working SO well, bravo :thumbs:
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Notwithstanding that he has done twice as bad as me so far, do you understand the difference between short and long term? Do you think I expected to be able to turn £20 to £150 every month? Again, for the hard of thinking, my point is that his is a poorer long-term prospect.
 
ice-is-forming said:
:hmm: Hmmm this isnt going so well for me...

Bet 3) Got $2. on Rossi for the win tonight.
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I got a bit further. Millwall won so i split the money so i was back into ffs's plan. Bet 13 went ok (1/12) so i had £6.55 going onto bet 14.
Dorados v Guadalajara (Mexican league) to finish 2.5 goals or less for 1/16 while 0-0 on 55 minutes.
1-1 going into the sixth minute of injury time... yep G's scored.

Back to the drawing board i suppose but if i had bet decent money, say a tenner, i may have cashed in at £50 or thereabouts so not a bad little bet that generates a lot of interest in other leagues.
I found this site to be really informative;

Live scores, results, fixtures, tables, statistics and news - Soccerway
 
I managed to turn £45 into £0 this weekend, mainly because of Manchester fucking city.

Had a great sweat yesterday though where I had £5 @£66/1 on Kane to score first and Suprs to win 2-1.
 
Mr Retro said:
I managed to turn £45 into £0 this weekend, mainly because of Manchester fucking city.

Had a great sweat yesterday though where I had £5 @£66/1 on Kane to score first and Suprs to win 2-1.
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I reckon Citeh pissed a few gamblers off this weekend
 
Yeah, had them on the handicap at -1. Silly bet with Garde taking over (new manager, new level of effort and all that) but not helped by De Bruyne's retarded attempt a backheel.
 
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