Farmer Bankruptcies, Trade Wars, Tarriffs, and the Future of Food

[Yuwipi Woman]

Been noticing something weird in stores. I went to buy some basic staples and had to go to several stores to find what I needed and even then it seemed in short supply. There are whole shelves that are not stocked. The categories I've seen range from canned veggie, paper products, olive oil, milk and cheese, and haircare products. I haven't seen empty shelves in the US since the 70s. This was mainly discount stores. I didn't see a problem at the higher end stores.

I thought I was alone in noticing this until I saw someone post this that they saw at their Walmart:

I'm sure this is temporary and pales in comparison to shortages in other parts of the world, but its highly unusual in the US. For Walmart, this is probably a temporary transportation problem with their distribution system. They recently had to raise pay for their trucking fleet to get enough drivers.

Some of this I credit to tariffs. A lot of products come from China and the tariffs are starting to have an effect. The newest things to see tariffs this week were olive oil, cheese, wine, and coffee. These were 100% tariffs so they're going to raise prices in a few weeks. I saw this report recently:

https://www.usfoods.com/content/dam...X7AZXbnJ94Easl1yp6HWEvjVwl15O1rDNDbyrSunHcM7U

This last weekend, I drove across the state and saw unplanted fields, field of winter wheat that were stunted. Corn that was only four or five inches tall (the usual standard is "knee high by the fourth of July). I also saw a number of detours due to flooded out bridges and roads and water still standing in fields. Crop yields cannot help but suffer.

And then I saw this just this morning:

Farmers are generally too proud and humble to speak out, but the truth is we are living through an extremely difficult period of market turmoil and natural disasters. Due largely to sustained low commodity prices, average farm income in 2017 was $43,000, while the median farm income for 2018 was negative $1,500. In 2018, Chapter 12 bankruptcies in the farm states across the Midwest that are responsible for nearly half of all sales of U.S farm products rose to the highest level in a decade.

And then the floods came to the Midwest. Farmers have been significantly delayed in their planting this year due to rain and soggy ground, and as the planting window closes, some will have to make a decision about whether to plant a crop this year at all. As of June 9, just 60% of America’s soybean acres had been planted in our highest-producing states, compared with nearly 90% typically planted by this time of year. And just 83% of the corn crop is in the ground in the most productive states, a number that should be pushing 100%.

Land O’Lakes CEO: Farmers Are in Crisis—and America Isn’t Paying Attention

... and then this:

Climate scientists say the rain and flooding that's broken records across the Midwest this year is consistent with predictions of climate change impacts.

Their modeling shows extreme weather is likely to occur much more often as global temperatures continue to rise.

"While it is difficult to link any particular weather event to climate change, the pattern of wetter springs and heavy rainfall events are consistent with broader changes in the Midwest climate system," said a spokesman for the USDA.

McGlinch, however, isn't too sure.

"We can't deny that we're seeing a shift in the weather," he said. "Is it human-related? Is it natural? I don't know."

On top of the weather troubles, a trade war with China - the biggest importer of U.S. soybeans - has led to Beijing slapping tariffs on about $22.6 billion worth of American agricultural goods.

Darke County is Ohio's largest corn and soybean producer, and Ohio is one of the top grain producers nationwide.

As temperatures rise this month, McGlinch - who's pursuing a doctorate in crop science and horticulture at Ohio State University - says fungus on his rye crop is rampant.

He's also lost 40 acres of winter barley because it didn't survive a particularly harsh and long winter. He estimates that loss alone at about $27,000.

After brutal spring floods, US farmers face big losses

As I see it, there's several causes at work here. There's climate change and the natural disasters its spawning. There's business interests that think only of short-term profits. Then there's our current leadership with his tariffs and general fuckwittedness. I'm pretty certain Trump lost the trade war with China and no one is acknowledging it yet.

I hope I'm being overly dramatic, but I see problems ahead that are unheard of in the US if we continue fucking up as badly as we seem to be.

 

[spring-peeper]

Great idea for a thread.

I've been trying to keep up with the farming community along the Mississippi. It is hard to find recent articles.

The Mississippi River is essential for transporting crop to market and bringing in the seed and fertilizer for the farmers.

Sadly, the flooding river was closed for many months and the farmers got no supplies, but even if they did, the fields were still draining.

I've read articles from seed suppliers claiming farmers are returning some of their purchased seeds. One owner was worried about having to lay some people off.


One of the major differences between the US and Canada is how we build our irrigation systems.

In Canada, our systems are designed to get rid of the rapid snow melts as we go into spring. Our farmers "tile" their fields. They have drain pipes several feet in the field and the water from the fields rushes into the drainage system and off to the rivers.

In the States, their irrigation is to bring water into the crops.

I can't seem to find any info on how much their irrigation system impeded the release of the flood waters.

 

[mx wcfc]

Great idea for a thread.

I've been trying to keep up with the farming community along the Mississippi. It is hard to find recent articles.

The Mississippi River is essential for transporting crop to market and bringing in the seed and fertilizer for the farmers.

Sadly, the flooding river was closed for many months and the farmers got no supplies, but even if they did, the fields were still draining.


One of the major differences between the US and Canada is how we build our irrigation systems.

In Canada, our systems are designed to get rid of the rapid snow melts as we go into spring. Our farmers "tile" their fields. They have drain pipes several feet in the field and the water from the fields rushes into the drainage system and off to the rivers.

In the States, their irrigation is to bring water into the crops.

I can't seem to find any info on how much their irrigation system impeded the release of the flood waters.

Slight derail, but I did geography O Level (UK exams at 16) we were told in map reading that there are no irrigation channels in England - the straight blue lines on our Ordnance Survey maps are all drainage ditches. Down where I live now in the Itchen Valley, I can assure everyone that we have irrigation channels. There were fights and legal disputes over the rights to take water off the Itchen to irrigate fields from the 1600's onwards.

(sorry - local history derail - pissed and some relevance to water supplies in the future)

 

[a_chap]

Do what everyone else does; blame Brexit

 

[mx wcfc]

Do what everyone else does; blame Brexit

I will when the food riots start.

 

[a_chap]

I will when the food riots start.

To late then.

Once the parsnips, cabbage and carrots have started smashing windows and torching cars we're fucked.

 

[spring-peeper]

Slight derail, but I did geography O Level (UK exams at 16) we were told in map reading that there are no irrigation channels in England - the straight blue lines on our Ordnance Survey maps are all drainage ditches. Down where I live now in the Itchen Valley, I can assure everyone that we have irrigation channels. There were fights and legal disputes over the rights to take water off the Itchen to irrigate fields from the 1600's onwards.

(sorry - local history derail - pissed and some relevance to water supplies in the future)

Interesting to note.

I'm from rural Ontario, Canada and have seen how our drainage system works.

I see examples from the US and, now substantiated in the UK, that people keep taking too much water out of the system.

Locally, we only put water into the system. We rely on rain to water our crops.

This may be different in other areas in Canada. It is possible in the Niagara region or British Colombia do take water to irrigate their crops. I don't know.

 

[Poi E]

To late then.

Once the parsnips, cabbage and carrots have started smashing windows and torching cars we're fucked.

"Crackers Go Nuts" etc.

 

[hash tag]

It is interesting that you quote olive oil, cheese, wine, and coffee. I would not have thought much of this came from China.
I shall investigate further when the Inlaws rise later.

 

[Flavour]

China doesn't export olive oil to the US. Nor coffee or cheese. Perhaps wine in minute quantities but even then I doubt you'll find it except in Chinatown stores.

 

[Poot]

Great idea for a thread.

I've been trying to keep up with the farming community along the Mississippi. It is hard to find recent articles.

The Mississippi River is essential for transporting crop to market and bringing in the seed and fertilizer for the farmers.

Sadly, the flooding river was closed for many months and the farmers got no supplies, but even if they did, the fields were still draining.

I've read articles from seed suppliers claiming farmers are returning some of their purchased seeds. One owner was worried about having to lay some people off.


One of the major differences between the US and Canada is how we build our irrigation systems.

In Canada, our systems are designed to get rid of the rapid snow melts as we go into spring. Our farmers "tile" their fields. They have drain pipes several feet in the field and the water from the fields rushes into the drainage system and off to the rivers.

In the States, their irrigation is to bring water into the crops.

I can't seem to find any info on how much their irrigation system impeded the release of the flood waters.

As you can imagine, the UK also needs good field drainage and we use a variety of methods including tile. Due to global warming we currently have a ton of new flood alleviation schemes in progress including the introduction of beavers and other methods of using organic processes to slow the floodwaters. We also now have a number of drought alleviation schemes, which largely rely on drought licences from the EA in order to divert streams. How our food production will be affected remains to be seen but I'm pretty sure it will. Very interesting to see North American difficulties.

This may not look like global warming to some (mentioning no names) but I'm pretty sure that a chunk of what has been mentioned is exactly that. Here in the UK solutions to global warming are being put in place. Because it's not going away.

 

[Pickman's model]

It is interesting that you quote olive oil, cheese, wine, and coffee. I would not have thought much of this came from China.
I shall investigate further when the Inlaws rise later.

there are, i thought, tariffs on eu exports to the usa, among which (i imagine) are olive oil, cheese and wine

 

[hash tag]

The op refers to China and new tarrifs.
My bil is from Portland Or and is not aware of food shortages in his neck of the woods.

 

[Pickman's model]

The op refers to China and new tarrifs.

Donald Trump threatens new tariffs on $4bn of EU products

 

[Pickman's model]

The op refers to China and new tarrifs.
My bil is from Portland Or and is not aware of food shortages in his neck of the woods.

 

[Crispy]

We had some discussion of how derivatives trading has distorted commodities markets (including food) here:
Global financial system implosion begins

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

One of the major differences between the US and Canada is how we build our irrigation systems.

In Canada, our systems are designed to get rid of the rapid snow melts as we go into spring. Our farmers "tile" their fields. They have drain pipes several feet in the field and the water from the fields rushes into the drainage system and off to the rivers.

In the States, their irrigation is to bring water into the crops.

I can't seem to find any info on how much their irrigation system impeded the release of the flood waters.

Most of our efforts are in bringing water to the field. We only get about 17-22 inches of rain a year so you have to supplement. This year we've had almost that already and the year is only half over. It rains every night. You would think the flooding would be confined to river basins, but the rain comes down so hard and so fast it can be nearly anywhere. There are parts of the US that have drain tile, but I think they're mostly north of here. No one can recall a year like this.

<edited to add>
I look at the water in the fields and think "at least its recharging the aquifer a little."

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Do what everyone else does; blame Brexit

Or, the same ham-fisted policies.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

It is interesting that you quote olive oil, cheese, wine, and coffee. I would not have thought much of this came from China.
I shall investigate further when the Inlaws rise later.

I kinda threw the kitchen sink in that post. I believe those are targeted at the EU. Our Nutter-in-Chief thinks its a good idea to play games with long-term allies.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

As you can imagine, the UK also needs good field drainage and we use a variety of methods including tile. Due to global warming we currently have a ton of new flood alleviation schemes in progress including the introduction of beavers and other methods of using organic processes to slow the floodwaters. We also now have a number of drought alleviation schemes, which largely rely on drought licences from the EA in order to divert streams. How our food production will be affected remains to be seen but I'm pretty sure it will. Very interesting to see North American difficulties.

This may not look like global warming to some (mentioning no names) but I'm pretty sure that a chunk of what has been mentioned is exactly that. Here in the UK solutions to global warming are being put in place. Because it's not going away.

I'm sure a good part of this is climate change. The changes we're seeing a close to the predictions that scientists have been making. This story was from 2018:

The federal government’s latest report on climate change warns of specific dangers to Midwest agriculture production, which comprises a significant portion of the economies of Kansas and Missouri.

Increasing temperatures and more extreme weather patterns such as flooding and drought will have serious consequences on crop and livestock production, according to the Fourth National Climate Assessment that was released the day after Thanksgiving.

“Any change in the climate poses a major challenge to agriculture through increased rates of crop failure, reduced livestock productivity and altered rates of pressure from pests, weeds and diseases,” according to the report’s chapter on agriculture. “Rural communities, where economies are more tightly interconnected with agriculture than with other sectors, are particularly vulnerable to the agricultural volatility related to climate.”

It goes on to list four areas that need to be understood:

▪ Food production will decline in areas of more frequent and prolonged drought. Shifting participation patterns associated with high temperatures will intensify wildfires, accelerate the depletion of water supplies for irrigation and expand the distribution and incidence of pests and diseases for crops and livestock.

▪ The degradation of critical soil and water resources will expand with runoff caused by extreme precipitation events.

▪ Increased frequency and intensity of high temperature extremes will contribute to heat exhaustion, heatstroke and heart attacks in people and in heat stress for livestock that will result in large economic losses.

▪ People in rural areas will be limited in their capacity to respond to the effects of climate change because of poverty and limitations of community resources.

The climate assessment’s opening sentence flatly contradicts the skepticism of President Donald Trump, who withdrew the United States from the Paris climate accords.

“Earth’s climate is now changing faster than any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities,” states the report, which comes after a recent alarm by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that humanity’s opportunity for meaningful action may soon slip away.

Midwest farms may suffer huge losses from intense heat, says climate change report

Trump's response to reports such as this is to make sure there's no more reports. He even recently suspended recording of bee loss numbers:

USDA Indefinitely Suspends Honey Bee Tracking Survey as States Get Approval to Use Bee-Killing Pesticide

 

[8ball]

This has the look of an "..and so it begins..." thread.

 

[TopCat]

Ends with the credits to "The Road"

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm sure a good part of this is climate change. The changes we're seeing a close to the predictions that scientists have been making. This story was from 2018:



It goes on to list four areas that need to be understood:



Midwest farms may suffer huge losses from intense heat, says climate change report

Trump's response to reports such as this is to make sure there's no more reports. He even recently suspended recording of bee loss numbers:

USDA Indefinitely Suspends Honey Bee Tracking Survey as States Get Approval to Use Bee-Killing Pesticide

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Another bit of censorship from the Trump administration:

A March news release from the U.S. Geological Survey touted a new study that could be useful for infrastructure planning along the California coastline.

At least that's how the Trump administration conveyed it.

The news release hardly stood out. It focused on the methodology of the study rather than its major findings, which showed that climate change could have a withering effect on California's economy by inundating real estate over the next few decades.

An earlier draft of the news release, written by researchers, was sanitized by Trump administration officials, who removed references to the dire effects of climate change after delaying its release for several months, according to three federal officials who saw it. The study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, showed that California, the world's fifth-largest economy, would face more than $100 billion in damages related to climate change and sea-level rise by the end of the century. It found that three to seven times more people and businesses than previously believed would be exposed to severe flooding.

....

The agency's press release about the California coastline study was significantly altered to mask the potential impact of rising temperatures on the state's economy. Instead, it described the methodology of the study and how it relied on "state-of-the-art computer models" and various sea-level rise predictions.

"USGS scientists and collaborators used state-of-the-art computer models to determine the coastal flooding and erosion that could result from a range of peer-reviewed, published 21st-century sea level rise and storm scenarios," the final press release said. "The authors then translated those hazards into a range of projected economic and social exposure data to show the lives and dollars that could be at risk from climate change in California during the 21st century."

INTERIOR: Officials removed climate references from press releases

 

[petee]

and now i see the mississippi is about to blow its banks.

 

[8ball]

What scares me right now is that I know Trump and his backers are fully aware of what is coming and are taking steps to protect themselves.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

We have more flooding too. Kearney and Woodriver are under water. The rain comes down so fast that it overwhelms the flood control systems:

https://www.omaha.com/news/metro/fl...cle_60b51a7c-c6e5-54ec-8f04-e1d1d8796018.html

Anyone who hasn't gotten their crop in by now probably won't. The fields are just so saturated.

I'm told a few didn't manage to get last year's crops out either. A cousin of mine just cut his 2018 crop down for animal feed. He wasn't able to even get it out of the field.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Meanwhile in China:

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s factory activity shrank more than expected in June, an official manufacturing survey showed, highlighting the need for more economic stimulus as U.S. tariffs and weaker domestic demand ramped up pressure on new orders for goods.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 49.4 in June, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Sunday, unchanged from the previous month and below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Analysts polled by Reuters predicted a reading of 49.5.

The weak manufacturing readings are likely to cast a shadow over the apparent progress U.S. and Chinese leaders made at the G20 summit in Japan over the weekend in restarting their troubled talks over tariffs amid a costly trade war.

China's factory activity shrinks as U.S. tariffs, slowdown hit orders - Reuters

I still think China is better positioned here than the US.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

What scares me right now is that I know Trump and his backers are fully aware of what is coming and are taking steps to protect themselves.

Yes, they have a plan for that:

n the immediate aftermath of Trump’s election, the theme of American plutocrats preparing for the apocalypse was impossible to avoid. The week after the inauguration, the New Yorker ran another piece about the super-rich who were making preparations for a grand civilisational crackup; speaking of New Zealand as a “favored refuge in the event of a cataclysm”, billionaire LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman, a former colleague of Thiel’s at PayPal, claimed that “saying you’re ‘buying a house in New Zealand’ is kind of a wink, wink, say no more”.

Everyone is always saying these days that it’s easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism. Everyone is always saying it, in my view, because it’s obviously true. The perception, paranoid or otherwise, that billionaires are preparing for a coming civilisational collapse seems a literal manifestation of this axiom. Those who are saved, in the end, will be those who can afford the premium of salvation. And New Zealand, the furthest place from anywhere, is in this narrative a kind of new Ararat: a place of shelter from the coming flood.

Why Silicon Valley billionaires are prepping for the apocalypse in New Zealand

It's interesting that "buying a house in New Zealand" is code for "buying a survival bunker". New Zealand has been adopting laws to fight climate change for some time now. All those laws the billionaire oppose elsewhere. I wonder if they see the cognitive dissonance in this.

 

[FiFi]

Yes, they have a plan for that:



Why Silicon Valley billionaires are prepping for the apocalypse in New Zealand

It's interesting that "buying a house in New Zealand" is code for "buying a survival bunker". New Zealand has been adopting laws to fight climate change for some time now. All those laws the billionaire oppose elsewhere. I wonder if they see the cognitive dissonance in this.

They may or may not, but it's always been one law for the rich and another for the rest of us.