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could the earth get like venus because of global warming?

frogwoman

No amount of cajolery...
sorry this is another stupid science question, but i was reading about venus the other day and the implications of the massive amount of carbon dioxide released there sort of got me thinking about whether this could happen to the earth.

i don't think it could, could it?
 
I know nothing about science but i venture that it probably wont. Don't ask me for evidence though - i have none.
 
I don't think it will either but there has been some speculation about it on science websites, i know fuck all about science either. it seems unlikely, it'd be useful to know why it won't though!
 
No. The carbon cycle on earth has many effective sinks. On Venus there's nowhere for it to go, as it has no life, no oceans and no tectonic activity.
 
No. The carbon cycle on earth has many effective sinks. On Venus there's nowhere for it to go, as it has no life, no oceans and no tectonic activity.

but could the earth end up getting that way if too much carbon dioxide gets into the atmosphere?

by like venus i basically mean incredibly hot, with no water and no life and full of carbon dioxide creating a dense atmosphere, and basically fucked
 
Venus doesn't have a magnetic field either which is how all the water got blown away by solar winds. So the answer is probably no. It would require a bigger change in the makeup of the earth than just heating up anyway.
 
sorry, i know it's a very stupid question, but it seems to have been discussed a bit by scientists on some of the science blogs, so that's why i was wondering. it kind of says something about my ignorance about science though :(
 
but could the earth end up getting that way if too much carbon dioxide gets into the atmosphere?

by like venus i basically mean incredibly hot, with no water and no life and full of carbon dioxide creating a dense atmosphere, and basically fucked

No. Earth's atmosphere is 0.035% carbon dioxide or thereabouts. Humans have the ability to push that figure maybe as high as 1-2% if we really go all-out. This could raise temperatures by quite a bit, but still well within the range comfortable for life. When CO2 dissolves in the ocean, gets absorbed by living organisms, sinks to the bottom, gets buried in earth etc. it is effectively removed from the greenhouse effect.

Venus' atmosphere is 95% CO2 and is 100x as dense as Earh's. It has no mechanisms for absorbing CO2. It's orders of magnitude worse and it would be impossible for the Earth to even approach the same conditions.
 
sorry this is another stupid science question, but i was reading about venus the other day and the implications of the massive amount of carbon dioxide released there sort of got me thinking about whether this could happen to the earth.

i don't think it could, could it?
Very unlikely this far from the sun (well at least while the sun is this size). Of course whether we can breathe the atmosphere in 20 years time...
 
Long term: the Earth will very slowly be increasingly heated by the Sun as stellar evolution progresses (a natural consequence of the shift in underlying predominate fusion processes in the Sun) and it moves along the main sequence (all stars get brighter as they age along the main sequence). In about a billion years time it is estimated that the average (terrestrial) surface temperature will be around 50 degC.

In one sense the Earth will never get like Venus simply because it is closer to the Sun and conditions will always be 'worse' up until the point Venus ceases to exist as a planet (consumed by the Sun as it expands into a red giant). Though approaching that time the Earth will be worse than Venus is right now. But this is all billions of years away...
 
Long term: the Earth will very slowly be increasingly heated by the Sun as stellar evolution progresses (a natural consequence of the shift in underlying predominate fusion processes in the Sun) and it moves along the main sequence (all stars get brighter as they age along the main sequence). In about a billion years time it is estimated that the average (terrestrial) surface temperature will be around 50 degC.

In one sense the Earth will never get like Venus simply because it is closer to the Sun and conditions will always be 'worse' up until the point Venus ceases to exist as a planet (consumed by the Sun as it expands into a red giant). Though approaching that time the Earth will be worse than Venus is right now. But this is all billions of years away...

but short term, i take it this isn't a risk of global warming is it?
 
but short term, i take it this isn't a risk of global warming is it?

No. Of course I'm talking ridiculously long term. A few billion years. An inevitable stellar/geological process that will happen irrespective of planetary greenhouse gas warming. The Earth will have no oceans and next to no atmosphere by then and tectonic activity will have ground to a halt (before that, in fact). The timescale is so great that there is more than enough time for humans to disappear, some other species evolve and reach the technological level that they want to and are able to park the Earth somewhere near the Kuiper belt to keep it going for a few hundred more million years, or go inhabit somewhere else (for example). But this is now drifting well away from the subject of the thread...
 
There is enough carbon available to do it.

What prevents it is the rock weathering, that is the hotter it gets (or the more acidic the rain gets) the more it rains the quicker rock erosion create calcium carbonate. Specifically the erosion of uplifted calcium beds from the ocean floor.

rock_cycle.jpg


Also for this reason periods of dramatic orogeny (mountain building) tend to have a carbon poor atmosphere and ice ages (ie now with the Himalayas and Tibetan Plataea).

The weathering create carbon calcium that sequesters CO2 on the ocean floors. Eventually that carbon reaches the edge of a tectonic plate where this happens

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ryrXAGY1dmE#t=34s

But if the rate of release of CO2 from the long term sequestering of the earth such as the northern arctic soils, the ocean clatherates and the CO2 in the ocean were to all be released due to warming then there may be a small chance that the weathering would not work fast enough. As far as I know it is still an open question.

Perhaps the strongest indication comes from the Cryogenian, or snow ball earth, where the planet was near totally encrusted with ice. This meant the planets albedo was very high and it took a huge amount of green house warming to break the deep freeze. This happened because without rain there was little sequestering of the carbon and it built up over tens of millions of years from the volcanoes, eventually enough to begin a melt that likely caused a very rapid flip over in state. This caused a super greenhouse and lots and lots of errosion and sequestering of carbon. When you can find rock old enough it stand out clearly

cap-carbonate.jpg


So it is likely that the super heated climate would create enough acid rain to sequester the carbon rapidly. But its not a climate you would want to be raising children in.

IIRC above an average temperature of 67C for the earth, rain becomes impossible in places so the mechanism slows and IIRC as the troposphere expands deep into what is now the stratosphere, the amount of water vapor at those altitudes increases rapidly increases and the hence there is much more UV (Im sures its UV and not cosmic rays) to disassociate hydrogen from the water vapor and the hydrogen boils off into space. At that point you begin to (very slowly) lose the oceans, when there is more hydrogen being lost to space than gained from comet impacts. Then you begin to in effect boil off the oceans. This is where the Venus effect comes in.

So in summary, theoretically I think it is possible. But I believe there is good grounds for thinking it will not happen yet. Every 100 million years the sun gains about 1% more energy, so the gap to runaway drops. We may only be 500 million years away from it happening.
 
No. The carbon cycle on earth has many effective sinks. On Venus there's nowhere for it to go, as it has no life, no oceans and no tectonic activity.
It is thought that the tectonic activity came to a halt when it lost its oceans and they ceased to lubricate the plates. There is some evidence of past tectonic activity. Although there is a great deal of speculation as Venus is none to kind to probes.
 
sorry this is another stupid science question, but i was reading about venus the other day and the implications of the massive amount of carbon dioxide released there sort of got me thinking about whether this could happen to the earth.

i don't think it could, could it?

Isn't it something like 800 degrees on the surface of Venus? We'd really be up shit creek if that happened.
 
there is much more UV (Im sures its UV and not cosmic rays) to disassociate hydrogen from the water vapor and the hydrogen boils off into space. At that point you begin to (very slowly) lose the oceans, when there is more hydrogen being lost to space than gained from comet impacts. Then you begin to in effect boil off the oceans. This is where the Venus effect comes in.

So in summary, theoretically I think it is possible. But I believe there is good grounds for thinking it will not happen yet. Every 100 million years the sun gains about 1% more energy, so the gap to runaway drops. We may only be 500 million years away from it happening.

It's UV that breaks up the H2O. Of course as solar output increases the UV level will increase as well. That process will accelerate. At the same time the Earth's magnetic field will be decreasing in strength as weak decay in the core drops off (the predominate heating process since the energy created from protoplanetary gravitational collapse has mostly tailed away) causing the electric currents in the Earth's molten outer core (those largely responsible for the magnetic field) to diminish. Now the outer atmosphere will be exposed to ions in the solar wind (largely protons) which will accelerate the disassociation of water molecules, break up ozone, etc. With a weaker magnetic field cosmic rays will increasingly contribute to the process as well. Also, recent studies of Mars' weak atmosphere and magnetic field suggest that bubbles of the weakened magnetic field, pulverised by the solar wind, will tend to carry portions of the atmosphere away into interplanetary space.
 
hopefully this latest news about carbon dioxide concentrations isn't a step in this dierction is it?
 
hopefully this latest news about carbon dioxide concentrations isn't a step in this dierction is it?
No. We're at 400 parts per million - ie. 0.04% of the atmosphere is CO2. To get as hot as Venus, we'd need 1,000 times as much. It just can't happen unless plate tectonics grinds to a halt (utterly improbable).
 
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