Corona fatigue

[Proper Tidy]

We're told containment across general population would fail over a sustained period due to cv fatigue, which tbf makes sense to me.

The relentless focus in media, on social media, on here, in conversation etc, already seeing people say they are bored of it now with the implication being fuck it go back to normal - and we're only at the point of normality ending really.

So anyway how likely is corona fatigue, how dangerous is it, will it be diminished by rising cases/deaths... A thread for thoughts I suppose.

 

[maomao]

There is no news item urgent and important enough that a combination of the internet and rolling news can't make us sick of it in under two weeks.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

I think the problem is the general person's lack of understanding of the science/maths behind most of the decisions being taken. Joe Public's logical take is, "well if my kids are still at school and possibly spreading it around, how can it be any worse if I go to the football/pub/work and possibly spread it around as well? The risks are the same, I'm not making it any worse, I'm just hurting myself if I stay at home and don't do anything fun."

 

[SpookyFrank]

What's currently wearing me out more than anything is trying to guess at what kind of lockdown measures there will be, how long it will last etc. At this point I am completely unable to plan what I'm going to do for the next few months. I don't know if I will even be able to see my partner in that time. Whatever happens I will deal with it somehow, but it's the not knowing that is crushing the life out of me right now.

 

[Proper Tidy]

I think the nature of the modern labour market would undermine any sustained attempt at containment tbf, uk has a much higher proportion of workers who are s/e or zero hours compared to other developed economies. No work no pay is going to override any other concerns after more than a week or two.

 

[felixthecat]

Whatever happens I will deal with it somehow, but it's the not knowing that is crushing the life out of me right now.

This. This in spades. Not knowing is massively fuelling my anxiety.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Well I think this has kicked in good and proper now. Tighter restrictions started this weekend in wales but you wouldn't know it, roads busier, pavements busier, more people in small groups, more flyers through door etc

 

[elbows]

I'm limited on the personal anecdotes front because I havent been outside for many a week. But even just listening and looking out of my window, I'd say there are signs it is starting to go wrong, yes.

Perhaps it would have been possible for me to be slightly more relaxed about this if various key numbers has really plummeted since the apparent peak. But from what I can tell this hasnt happened, things with the virus are declining painfully slowly, its still a very delicate time.

I wont completely freak out about this yet because its still important to remember all the increased distancing and lost opportunities for the virus to spread that are still ongoing. Even when we see lots of signs of plenty of people getting slacker, we have to remember all those who are still adhering to things, and how different even those who are slacking offs behaviour is compared to completely normal behaviour in normal times. So I dont know exactly how worried to be.

 

[weltweit]

I know people who are now traveling a little, but a little more than they would have done at the start of the lockdown. I am getting a bit bored with it myself and on the worldwide thread there is simply less to say, most having been already said numerous times before.

And WFH is getting a little dull, just sitting at my laptop, no one to pass the time with. However, I haven't had the virus and that motivates me a bit, I don't want to roll the dice with it as I might come off the worse from the exercise. Hence I am wary shopping because atm that is my riskiest behaviour presently.

 

[elbows]

I know people who are now traveling a little, but a little more than they would have done at the start of the lockdown. I am getting a bit bored with it myself and on the worldwide thread there is simply less to say, most having been already said numerous times before.

The nature of current forum activity on the topic probably can be used as an indicator, in several ways we do seem to have been shifting to another stage in peoples minds in recent weeks.

If this event had been less than this nasty pandemic with huge implications, if it were some event with less consequences for us, the sort of thing that would have just one long thread about it, then I get the sense that by now we would be firmly into the stage where the thread would be at least 95% me talking to myself about some particular small details, long after the main impetus behind most people paying attention to the subject had dwindled below critical mass!

 

[Epona]

Social distancing is no longer happening around here (East London) - people aren't keeping their distance, even enforcement of supermarket queues is half-hearted, and the streets are crowded.

It's essentially done here - this is the government's fault for not coming up with a better way of marketing the strategy - people here will see through slogans, and there is mistrust in authority anyway. It worked for 3 weeks but a new message where we can tangibly see results with numbers (rather than "operational objectives need to have been met") is required. The fact that we're all cooped up in flats in this heat doesn't help. I am abiding by requirements (actually more strictly than the guidelines allow for) but repeating slogans at people stacked up in flats like battery chickens is not helpful. People feel as if they are being spoken down to, patronised and managed.

 

[elbows]

Politically, if 'lockdown fatigue' messes everything up then the state will be gifted a way to justify any lateness of our lockdown being implemented - all the lives that wouldnt have been lost if we had acted sooner are less of a political hot potato because people didnt stick to things later, so government can say that their concerns about lockdown fatigue were spot on, and that if they had acted sooner we would just have ended up costing the same lives at the other end of the wave, by getting fatigued and slack on lockdown sooner. This argument is not entirely valid because if things had been nipped in the bud at a much earlier stage all the subsequent chapters of the story could have been quite different, but I'm not sure how obvious this will be, arguments can sound compelling even if not totally true.

These considerations only kick in past a certain point of lockdown fatigue and slackness though, and I dont know quite where that threshold will be set or how quickly people will exceed it, or how to get the right sense of where we are at right now. Because the people not sticking things are easy to spot, those who are adhering to things are largely invisible, and this may distort our sense of where things are at.

 

[keybored]

I suppose we've reached peak "peak".

 

[elbows]

I am also displeased that from my limited vantage point, it was the media in this country that demonstrated fatigue with the current state of play first, before the public at large, and started distorting the sense of timing and expectations with the nature of some of their questions and angles.

It doesnt help that various countries, ones whose initial epidemic wave did not reach anything like the same scale as ours, are of course able now to consider easing various things because the fundamentals are a bit different there, which gives them more wiggle room and more favourable timing opportunities. And that context can be missing from the quick headlines and stories we get about things being eased in those countries. More potential for falsely raised expectations here.

 

[Humberto]

It comes back to 'herd immunity'. I.e do fuck all like the bloodless vampires we aspire to be because our soul is rotting down every day.

 

[yield]

Not seeing it here. Streets are empty most of the time. Little traffic, vast majority maintaining social distancing. But I live in a large relatively low population London Borough on the outskirts.

 

[Epona]

I am also displeased that from my limited vantage point, it was the media in this country that demonstrated fatigue with the current state of play first, before the public at large, and started distorting the sense of timing and expectations with the nature of some of their questions and angles.

It doesnt help that various countries, ones whose initial epidemic wave did not reach anything like the same scale as ours, are of course able now to consider easing various things because the fundamentals are a bit different there, which gives them more wiggle room and more favourable timing opportunities. And that context can be missing from the quick headlines and stories we get about things being eased in those countries. More potential for falsely raised expectations here.

The fatigue is largely from dodged questions by the govt about a potential ease of lockdown or exit plan and that has been going on for a while now. They need to start treating the population as if we have some intelligence and stop just repeating slogans over and over. If they think they need to keep it going on for another 3 or 6 months they need to say so, and if it depends on "numbers coming down" they need to say what those numbers are. I know that is potentially difficult, but people are finding it difficult to cope with statements that do not equate to actual achievable targets due to the almost spiritual and immeasurable nature of the holy "5 points" that will release us from lockdown. A lot of fatigue is I am sure down to "If I can't measure it then fuck it".

 

[weltweit]

.. People feel as if they are being spoken down to, patronised and managed.

I think that is the real risk. Boris gets Checkers to recuperate in, not his first home which is No 10, one rule for him different for the rest of us. I am lucky I have a garden, much tougher for those that don't.

On the other hand, we reported more than 800 deaths today so the virus is still out there and deaths are still way high. Lockdown hasn't yet supressed infections and it may be that test track and trace might not yet deal with the current level of activity.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Apart from driving 20 miles up to my other halfs parents (nearly 80, health issues etc so not seeing anybody) every couple of weeks to drop bits off that their neighbour can't get in her online shop and when I go for a run (always early morning or late night) I haven't been out for a month, not even food shopping cos other half does a big shop every couple of weeks. But we live on a usually busy road, it's been quiet but getting busier, same with noise, can hear the return of more background noise, and more footfall going back and to to the tiny corner shop/offy a few doors up. More groups walking on street, more photos on social media that I know aren't immediately local etc. Defo people getting more lax. Sunshine probably not helping on that front although it's supposed to piss it down next week.

I understand it of course, it's tough, especially for people who don't have lots of room in house, big/any garden etc, won't get into the class issues as probably another thread but I do get it. However given death count not exactly rapidly dropping it gives me a bad feeling

 

[SheilaNaGig]

the lockdown is crumbling. No doubt about it.

 

[weltweit]

the lockdown is crumbling. No doubt about it.

What sort of crumbling are you seeing SheilaNaGig?

 

[Epona]

What sort of crumbling are you seeing SheilaNaGig?

If it is anything like the crumbling I saw today (I leave my flat twice a week for essentials), probably streets filled with people acting normal, no regard for social distancing whatsoever. And I am feeling like the wrongun if I start barking at people to move away.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

If it is anything like the crumbling I saw today (I leave my flat twice a week for essentials), probably streets filled with people acting normal, no regard for social distancing whatsoever. And I am feeling like the wrongun if I start barking at people to move away.

Yeah, this.

 

[Epona]

Liked cos we have similar experience, not cos it is a good thing

 

[elbows]

I understand it of course, it's tough, especially for people who don't have lots of room in house, big/any garden etc, won't get into the class issues as probably another thread but I do get it. However given death count not exactly rapidly dropping it gives me a bad feeling

I know I was fretting about that earlier, but all the same it was never going to drop quickly. The gargantuan effort was required in order to stop it from rising by ever increasing amounts, thats the big achievement, and success on this front still does not translate quickly into illnesses and deaths falling to a very low level. That side of things is a slow process, which is why Johnson was chucking around a certain length of time with the 'we can turn the tide in 12 weeks' stuff. There can also be circumstances that perpetuate quite a high level of death that dont even require rates of transmission to have gone back up in the wider community, if for example there is a big ongoing problem in certain specific settings like care homes and hospitals.

In theory I believe they think that R0 fell enough below 1 in recent weeks in the wider community that there has been a bit of wiggle room they can use to relax a few things here or there at some point in the next month to 6 weeks. If people dont use up that wiggle room by doing their own unauthorised slackening. But they are currently using hospital & death data to estimate R0, and this introduces lag, they wont be able to spot changes to this number as quickly as would be wanted to guide policy at all moments. So they are just now getting round to starting a virus surveillance programme that should allow them to get a more direct and timely measure of R0 on an ongoing basis. Presumably they will then start talking about this detail more.

 

[Epona]

I know I was fretting about that earlier, but all the same it was never going to drop quickly. The gargantuan effort was required in order to stop it from rising by ever increasing amounts, thats the big achievement, and success on this front still does not translate quickly into illnesses and deaths falling to a very low level. That side of things is a slow process, which is why Johnson was chucking around a certain length of time with the 'we can turn the tide in 12 weeks' stuff. There can also be circumstances that perpetuate quite a high level of death that dont even require rates of transmission to have gone back up in the wider community, if for example there is a big ongoing problem in certain specific settings like care homes and hospitals.

In theory I believe they think that R0 fell enough below 1 in recent weeks in the wider community that there has been a bit of wiggle room they can use to relax a few things here or there at some point in the next month to 6 weeks. If people dont use up that wiggle room by doing their own unauthorised slackening. But they are currently using hospital & death data to estimate R0, and this introduces lag, they wont be able to spot changes to this number as quickly as would be wanted to guide policy at all moments. So they are just now getting round to starting a virus surveillance programme that should allow them to get a more direct and timely measure of R0 on an ongoing basis. Presumably they will then start talking about this detail more.

I've not read your post yet, but I can immediately see that what you have quoted from me is not something I said, it doesn't even sound like something I would be likely to say - probably a hit the wrong button on the forum error

Yeah scanning back up, what you quoted was from Proper Tidy , not me - if you could fix that I'd be most grateful!

 

[elbows]

Sorry about that, I have fixed it.

 

[Epona]

Sorry about that, I have fixed it.

No worries, it's not like you attributed something really awful to me, just don't want people quoting things back at me later that I never said - I have enough trouble as it is Thanks for sorting it

 

[NoXion]

The road did seem a little busier when I last went to the local shop a couple of days ago. But I'm staying in. I'm a homebody at the best of times, but fuck going out at a time like this. Viruses don't give a shit about your self-serving excuses to flout the lockdown. I don't need to spend a couple of weeks dry-hacking my lungs out while lying in a puddle of my own cold sweat to learn that lesson.

 

[kebabking]

I would say that out here in the sticks some elements of lockdown are wavering, primarily those around people going to work more, but social distancing in and around shops, people chatting to others in the street, visiting friends etc... are still being very well adhered to.

The one regular exception to that is visits to the elderly - overwhelming it's taking stuff round to parents, and sitting in the garden for a brew and a chat for 20 minutes every few days.

We do it, my neighbours children/others all do it, it's not about the badness of it (it's about as far as revolution against the oppressive state gets in Worcestershire..), it's a practical recognition that C-19 isn't the only threat to people's health, and that for many older people this experience of being locked up for 6 weeks and not seeing anyone has been exceedingly grim.

When this is all over I'll be interested to read about the different regional, class, occupational, kids/no kids, garden/no garden, urban/sub-urban/rural experiences of this...