400ppm (atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide)

[ferrelhadley]

Its coming. The first regional reading in the Arctic has hit the magic number.

For the first time in at least 800,000 years, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have crossed the threshold of 400 parts per million (ppm), with stations across the Arctic recording these record levels, the Associated Press reports. Global concentrations have hit 395 ppm, but in recent months levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere surpassed 400 ppm in the Arctic because of the lack of CO2-absorbing vegetation in the Far North in winter and spring. Pre-industrial levels of CO2 were about 280 ppm, and numerous scientists said that hitting the 400 ppm threshold was a worrisome sign that industrial society continues to emit planet-warming greenhouse gases at an alarming rate. Jim Butler, global monitoring director at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Earth System Research Lab in Colorado, called the new high a “troubling milestone.” Carnegie Institution ecologist Chris Field, a leader of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said, “It is an indication that we’re in a different world.” Levels exceeding 400 ppm have been recorded this spring in Alaska, Greenland, Norway, and Iceland.

http://e360.yale.edu/digest/c02_milestone_reached__as_levels_hit_400_ppm_across_arctic/3488/

Fun facts to remember. The mixing depth of the ocean is on average about 200m. So that means the radiative imbalance has to warm 200m of ocean before the full effects of it are felt.
Hence the general assumption is we are only feeling the full effects of the radiative imbalance of over 20 years ago.
The slower feedbacks have not even remotely begun to kick in. Things like cooler low latitude soils store far more CO2 and the ice albedo feedback in the Arctic.
Reducing the temperature differential between high lattitudes and lower ones is thought to be reducing the average speed of the jetstream. The consaquence of this is an increasing amplitude and decreasing rate of progression of rossby waves.

Rossby waves create a boundry between south flowing nothern air and north flowing southern air. Inceasing the amplitude and decreasing the rate of progression will see colder Arctic air reaching further south, warmer sub tropical air getting further north and the steerign of low pressures by the polar jet change. I.e. like in years like 08 if its stalled by a blocking system and stalling over the UK it will stear every Atlantic depression over us and flood the country and give the TV the festival pictures they want. If it stalls with a southern kink in the winter then it will be lots of clear nights and polar air. If it stalls to the north in summer then it will be clear days and southerly warm air for days on end.

Hands up if any of that sounds familiar. Eyes peeled folks cause we are only feeling the full effects of CO2 from when Nirvana were a hot new band and Spike Island was underway.

Either 2013 spring or more likely 2014 we hit a global average of over 400ppm.

Clocks running 400ppm on the way. What do you reckon the chances are of stopping at 500ppm.

Whats the magic number where we start locking in the destabilisation of deep ocean methene?

Wally Broecker used to say we were pocking a hybernating bear with a big stick. We have chanched to bashing it over the head with a baseball bat........

 

[Greebo]

So where do we go from here?

 

[extra dry]

BBQ on the Ice....

 

[spacemonkey]

What are the chances of stopping at 1000ppm?

Doubling of global energy demand to 2050. Huge expansion of wealth and consumption in Asia. Massive expansion of the tar sands. Fracking expanding to other countries feeling the effects of peak oil. Coal to liquid technology. Shift away from nuclear. Glacial pace of renewables developement.

*sigh*

 

[free spirit]

cheers FH, I've written a blog article on this, which is probably a bit long to cut and paste here.

Leeds Solar Blog | crossing the 400ppm barrier

 

[ferrelhadley]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environme...-change-second-greatest-annual-rise-emissions

2014 looking like the hot favourite after a big 2012.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Everyone wave bye bye to the Holocene climate regime as we rocket past it.

http://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...-years-worth-of-climate-data-prove-it/273870/

 

[Dr Jon]

We gain about 3ppm a year, so we'll have 400ppm in the bag by next year:

 

[Dr Jon]

Earth Hurtling Towards Temperatures Not Seen in 11,000 Years

 

[Wilson]

noone really seems to give a fuck

 

[Dr Jon]

noone really seems to give a fuck

No.

Those that do give a fuck just end up getting ill and angry.

Currently much of the world is either denying, or not acting on, the ultimate warning science has ever issued to humanity, namely, that any major interference with the atmosphere-ocean-land carbon cycle threatens to erode the very life support system of the planet.

link (PDF)

 

[stuff_it]

noone really seems to give a fuck

Give a fuck, not much we can do on an individual scale.

Meanwhile: http://www.envisionation.co.uk/inde...s-release-regarding-the-findings-of-cryosat-2

 

[Wilson]

Yeah, I know what you mean, on an individual scale it does appear to be little that's doable. But looking at all of this ^, the planet's fucked, and noone seems to really be aware of it. It should be major news, 'We' should be grounding aeroplanes, rationing fuel, rolling powercuts, digging up parks and gardens etc like a war or something at this point of fuckedness yet even those so called guardians of the environment like greenpease, fote etc are basically silent. I dunno I guess I'm just saying WTF.

 

[Dr Jon]

...
'We' should be grounding aeroplanes, rationing fuel, rolling powercuts, digging up parks and gardens etc like a war or something at this point of fuckedness yet even those so called guardians of the environment like greenpease, fote etc are basically silent. I dunno I guess I'm just saying WTF.

Thing is, we could do all of those things and we'd still be fucked. We might delay the inevitable for a short time, but IMO it's long past time when we actually had a chance, if any, of averting catastrophic climate change. If we'd started to cut our additions of CO₂ to the atmosphere in the 1970's, maybe we could have avoided the worst, but man-made climate change wasn't even on the radar in those days.

What actually happened from the end of the 1970's was an unprecedented explosion in resource use and environmental destruction which fuelled Reagan & Thatcher's neoliberal economics, which continue to this day. As it is, the fat old fucks who designed (and profited most from) neoliberalism will all be dead by the time the shit hits the fan, which I suspect they knew at the time.

 

[stuff_it]

Yeah, I know what you mean, on an individual scale it does appear to be little that's doable. But looking at all of this ^, the planet's fucked, and noone seems to really be aware of it. It should be major news, 'We' should be grounding aeroplanes, rationing fuel, rolling powercuts, digging up parks and gardens etc like a war or something at this point of fuckedness yet even those so called guardians of the environment like greenpease, fote etc are basically silent. I dunno I guess I'm just saying WTF.

They don't want panic in the streets, as it's all far too late to do much.

 

[Wilson]

Oh, ok, so we're fucked and there's nothing we can do even if we wanted to and if we did anything it would just induce mass panic.

 

[stuff_it]

Oh, ok, so we're fucked and there's nothing we can do even if we wanted to and if we did anything it would just induce mass panic.

TBH it makes you wonder if some of the 'chemtrails' pics and conspiracy theories surrounding HAARP etc are in fact disinfo aimed at covering up research into albedo adjustment etc to avoid mass panic.

One would like to hope so really.

/tinfoilhat

 

[Dr Jon]

(((((Stratospheric Sulphates)))))

 

[ferrelhadley]

If we'd started to cut our additions of CO₂ to the atmosphere in the 1970's, maybe we could have avoided the worst, but man-made climate change wasn't even on the radar in those days.

It was a big issue in science then. The National Academy of the Sciences had confirmed this, the US JASON team of uber patriot scientists had also confirmed it. The whole in the Ozone layer give everyone a huge wake up but the IPCC was set up to deliberately kick the issue into the long grass with the US insisting it had to reach a 'consensus' decision before action was taken. When this team came back with a consensus decision in FAR, the issue was again kicked into the long grass by muddying the waters by various political think tanks and the word 'consensus' was used to claim science is never done by consensus blah blah other. Other notable efforts to kick the issue into the long grass was the US insisting that instead of a scientist they wanted an Indian (who they thought would resist curbs on CO2 emissions) named Pachauri to head the team. Now his lack of qualification in the field is used to discredit him.

 

[Dr Jon]

In related news, I see that Jim Hansen is 'retiring' from NASA.
Whether he's jumping or being pushed, this will mean he can now get on with suing the US Government!
link

 

[kabbes]

This is all so fucking depressing

 

[Dr Jon]

Yes.
I'm sitting in the pub watching a family with three lovely kids have supper.
They don't deserve this...

 

[ferrelhadley]

A huge pool of warm water that spanned the Tropics four million years ago suggests climate models might be too conservative in forecasting tropical changes. Dr Chris Brierley (UCL Geography), a co-author of the paper published in Nature, explains that this giant mass of water would have dramatically altered rainfall in the tropics. Its decay and the consequential drying of East Africa may have been a factor in Hominid evolution.

With green house gases accelerating climate change, Dr Brierley says we cannot rule out such a future for the world with the return of uniformly warm seas in the Tropics.

What 400ppm meant in years gone by. 20-25m higher sea levels and a massive tropical warm pool.

 

[ferrelhadley]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/apr/29/global-carbon-dioxide-levels

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached 399.72 parts per million (ppm) and is likely to pass the symbolically important 400ppm level for the first time in the next few days.
Readings at the US government's Earth Systems Research laboratory in Hawaii, are not expected to reach their 2013 peak until mid May, but were recorded at a daily average of 399.72ppm on 25 April. The weekly average stood at 398.5 on Monday.
Hourly readings above 400ppm have been recorded six times in the last week, and on occasion, at observatories in the high Arctic. But the Mauna Loa station, sited at 3,400m and far away from major pollution sources in the Pacific Ocean, has been monitoring levels for more than 50 years and is considered the gold standard.
"I wish it weren't true but it looks like the world is going to blow through the 400ppm level without losing a beat. At this pace we'll hit 450ppm within a few decades," said Ralph Keeling, a geologist with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography which operates the Hawaiian observatory.

 

[Wilson]

Either 2013 spring or more likely 2014 we hit a global average of over 400ppm.

Haven't we done well

 

[Dr Jon]

*slow handclap*

 

[kabbes]

Fuck.

 

[frogwoman]

So what does this mean then?

 

[Crispy]

So what does this mean then?

It's a nice round number. We got here faster than we thought we would ten years ago. Global warming continues.

 

[Wilson]

noone really gives a fuck though, far more interesting things to rub thighs about - http://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/what-car-to-buy-for-4k.309760/#post-12197684

Artic ice cap next, will it totally melt this summer or not quite?