When will the lib dem split happen?
- Thread starter frogwoman
- Start date
fuck, is there any way to make this poll public?
fractionMan
Custom Title
never. they're all in it together.
ska invita
back on the other side
judging by the polls half the libdem faithful have already split
free spirit
more tea vicar?
when it becomes clear that clegco have led us back into recession IMO.
There is a chance that after next May, when the local elections see them wiped out, that those MPs who have seen their own constituencies go Labour or Tory will start playing up, and if Clegg doesn't make them the concessions they demand, and indeed Cameron doesn't let him, then we may see a small split on the grounds of self interest.
However what is certain is that the current trickle of defections and drift away by candidates, councillors, activists and ex office holders to Labour, Tories, Greens, and others, will continue and probably grow.
ETA - if there was a split it could only be into another more or less centre right liberal party, and do we really need a fourth?
However what is certain is that the current trickle of defections and drift away by candidates, councillors, activists and ex office holders to Labour, Tories, Greens, and others, will continue and probably grow.
ETA - if there was a split it could only be into another more or less centre right liberal party, and do we really need a fourth?
The thinking might go like this: If the number of rebel MPs is large enough, the remainder would have no option but to join the Tories, either as fully paid up members or as part of an electoral pact. In which case, the 'left' of the party would inherit the historical Lib Dem support and soon be restored to its natural place in the order of things, where it would hope to influence government as part of a centre-left coalition or propping up a minority Labour administration.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
There certainly should be. firstly, as a result of the complicated negotiations that led to the creation of the LDP out of the alliance, the grassroots in that party have more hold over the parly party than is the case with the other 2 parties; they can do a lot more to hold the leadership to account. When they see the coalition about to wreck 40 years of backbreakingly hard grassroots work, I can see them using all of those powers. secondly, philosophically the LDP is a broad and unusual church, comprising everything from anarchist-lites, ecowarriors and radical libs to electoral reform junkies,purelibertarians and orange book neoliberals. That is - at the best of times - a huge systemic strain on their unity.
Next, By the end of next year they will have experienced their first ever local elections wipeout since the 1960s, and as the effect of the cuts begins to really bite home, their party will find itself marginally less popular than the average leper. The implications for ALL their MPs (and surviving councillors, MSPs, MLAs and GLA members) will become terrifyingly clear, and nothing focuses a politico's mind better than the imminent loss of their meal ticket; the thought will go round and round in all their heads; "At this rate, and unless we change things I will be turfed out of my seat at the next election". The temptation for each and every one of the politicos to break ranks and save their own skins will by then be nigh-on overswhelming, and the pressure from a titanically pissed off grassroots to do so just as great. Decision time.....
The key point is which way they go then; do they tough it out, hoping the polls improve in time, or scramble for a lifeboat (revolt, depose clegg, break the coalition). My bet is the latter, simply because I don't think they've got the balls for the former. They're not used to this situation, none of them, they've not had the experience to develop the character and spine.
so I reckon a revolt, a hasty swing leftwards - and a tottering minority govt by the end of 2012
Locally we are seeing a small loss in support which is to be expected as we are in office, and have a poor economic situaiton. The support we have lost is currently split between Labour and Green's so it unlikely to actually be enough to result in any lost Council seats. Our local party membership has contiuned to rise since the election.
We maybe atypical in that we have a local coalition with Labour on the Council that is keeping the Tories out.
We maybe atypical in that we have a local coalition with Labour on the Council that is keeping the Tories out.
If we win the AV referundum I think the party as a whole will split from the coalition if the economy doesn't pick up, if people vote to keep the current election system and the economy doesn't pick up then you might see an internal split. It isn't clear where the party would go though, quite possible that it might be worse from a left-wing point of view if some join the Tories.
fractionMan
Custom Title
la la land
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
wow, interesting.
for all my lib dem bashing on here i actually feel quite sorry for a lot of them tbh. it must be really difficult.
I'd prefer not to announce on this board where I spend a fair amount of time winding people up with exploring ideas and arguments.
The question is though what have people done locally, there are some really shit Councillors from all political parties and some really good ones. It's a shame if people just vote down national lines and some decent people get thrown out as a result. Hopefully the good Councillors will have built enough of a reputation to hang-on, it might even be good to clear out some of the dead wood.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
I'd imagine it's utterly excruciating for those in areas with a fair chunk of poverty, deprivation and social problems.....
It's not an easy strategic position to be in hearing people who were in the coalition negotiations as an activist you got a clear sense of the areas where the party had made a positive impact on policy. It now all depends on how the coalition delivers it. What depresses me is that you have seen the agenda start to slip so quickly, and Clegg is already getting side-lined by civil servants into announcing their agenda rather than actually implementing the agreement.
The way he is talking these days is pissing me off a bit too, and I hate the fairness thing as it's just another vacuous political catch-phrase.
Yea right, and I bet every Lib Dem wishes they were coming into government with a booming economy and a chance like Labour had in 1997 to implement some polices that help people. No one likes the responsibility of having to make the tough decisions.
nino_savatte
No pasaran!
Spit-shine Nicky will become yesterday's man by the end of next year.
keep the faith brother and your masterplan economic policy will see us through so in a years time everything will be thriving and Lib Dems will rule the councils
ho ho
is that why Tory Blair stuck to Tory spending plans for 18 months for the NHS? Because he was left aload of surplus?
Being yesterday's man at the end of next year makes Clegg future man as of today.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
yup that's right - he's got about a year left of his future
A year in politics can be a very long time.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
It certainly can - but if you think their polls are bad now, that's nothing to how dismal they'll be in a year
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