Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[where to]

Don't think we've really done this one.

Labour vote lost votes to BNP between 1997 and 2010, but not to the left.

The Tory vote is going to their right. Why is this?

Why are Tory voters unhappy?

I can't say I saw this coming, or even understand it. Is it just small c conservatives unhappy on social issues and europe?

 

[co-op]

Don't know that I'd agree with two of your assumptions;

(a) Labour just lost votes - and many of those were working class voters who just stopped voting. I'd like to see evidence that they 'lost votes tothe BNP'.
(b) Labour did start to get outflanked to the left in Wales by PC, in Scotland (devastatingly in recent Assembly elections) by the SNP and here and there by the Green Party in England (they lost 10 seats by a smaller margin than the GP vote in 2010 - one of course was Caroline Lucas in Brighton).

 

[paolo]

Tory votes heading right:

Well, bear in mind that old school Tories are massively hating disco Dave's modernisation stuff. They don't believe the 'nasty party' problem either exists, or matters.

UKIP is the natural place to flee to.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think a lot of people just dislike the eu and see both labour and tories as too chummy with brussels. But ukip don't seem to do so well in domestick elections

 

[butchersapron]

Tory votes heading right:

Well, bear in mind that old school Tories are massively hating disco Dave's modernisation stuff. They don't believe the 'nasty party' problem either exists, or matters.

UKIP is the natural place to flee to.

Ok, let's try and identify this vote: what's an old school tory?

 

[Jon-of-arc]

Just the further right feeling that the tories are getting a bit wooly on immigration, gay marraige, europe and other idiot daily mail reader concerns. Possibly grabbing a few votes from bnp voters who now dont have a serious proper fash group to support.

 

[paolo]

Ok, let's try and identify this vote: what's an old school tory?

Ones who still like all the old shit - recipe as you fancy it: a dash of homophobia, a dash of racism, etc etc.

 

[butchersapron]

Ones who still like all the old shit - recipe as you fancy it: a dash of homophobia, a dash of racism, etc etc.

Where do they come from regionally, in social class, in occupation? Have they been hit by the crash - in what way? Sacked? Put out of their home or lost it value? And so on.

 

[shagnasty]

Tory votes heading right:

Well, bear in mind that old school Tories are massively hating disco Dave's modernisation stuff. They don't believe the 'nasty party' problem either exists, or matters.

UKIP is the natural place to flee to.

The tories do believe that all their problems will be solved with a swing to the right ,same agruement will probally happen in the states

 

[Jon-of-arc]

Where do they come from regionally, in social class, in occupation? Have they been hit by the crash - in what way? Sacked? Put out of their home or lost it value? And so on.

Why ask questions which you know cant be answered?

I imagine that a lot of them are retired or close to retirement. Theyll have a liveable pension, and own their home. Theyll have been hit by the economy/cuts, but not crippled, for the most part. They'll live in safe tory seats, or perhaps one of those fucking weird places up north where there are tons of asians and tons of bigots.

{/wild speculation}

 

[paolo]

Where do they come from regionally, in social class, in occupation? Have they been hit by the crash - in what way? Sacked? Put out of their home or lost it value? And so on.

Dunno. My survey team are being rather tardy.

I'd speculate that the one common factor is age. Older people.

 

[butchersapron]

Why ask questions which you know cant be answered?

I imagine that a lot of them are retired or close to retirement. Theyll have a liveable pension, and own their home. Theyll have been hit by the economy/cuts, but not crippled, for the most part. They'll live in safe tory seats, or perhaps one of those fucking weird places up north where there are tons of asians and tons of bigots.

{/wild speculation}

I don't. They can be answered. Lots of people have done actual research on them. And what it shows is that the sort of lazy assumptions that lie behind your post are at best totally wrong.

What is this thread about? Just saying ha ha old fat tories?

 

[paolo]

So basically butchers, you 'knew the answer', but kept it back and asked people to speculate, so you could score a measly point in the thread?

FFS.

If you've got relevant info, just fucking post it and quit the games.

 

[Delroy Booth]

Hahaha butchers you're such a fucking rotter. Stop teasing people.

 

[butchersapron]

So basically butchers, you 'knew the answer', but kept it back and asked people to speculate, so you could score a measly point in the thread?

FFS.

If you've got relevant info, just fucking post it and quit the games.

The unveiling of social assumptions about UKIP voters is worth doing this way. Sorry if you're all offended and that. It was to make a point - and if the OP is to be taken seriously then this is what we need to be looking at.

 

[butchersapron]

Ha ha fat old tories.

 

[Ax^]

People with developing racist view points who still wring their hands about coming straight out and voting BNP...

Is to blame for some of it

 

[paolo]

The unveiling of social assumptions about UKIP voters is worth doing this way. Sorry if you're all offended and that. It was to make a point - and if the OP is to be taken seriously then this is what we need to be looking at.

If *you* want to be taken seriously, why not discuss it in a manner that doesn't come across as sneery?

 

[Jon-of-arc]

I don't. They can be answered. Lots of people have done actual research on them. And what it shows is that the sort of lazy assumptions that lie behind your post are at best totally wrong.

What is this thread about? Just saying ha ha old fat tories?

Sorry, that article says next to nothing about the demographics of the ukip vote. I did say I was wildly speculating, so hardly cutting to call my "assumptions" lazy. They were meant to be. But until you find something that says a bit moreusedul than some ukip voters are middle class and some are "financially marginal", whatever that is supposed to mean, I think crass and lazy is probably the way to go.

 

[butchersapron]

If *you* want to be taken seriously, why not discuss it in a manner that doesn't come across as sneery?

I don't really care if you think i come across as sneery. I don't really want to be taken seriously. Fact is, there is a huge wedge of people who assume they know what the UKIP vote is based on, one based on their own social prejudices. This is dangerous. One way to demonstrate how this works is to show it here by...well...showing it.

 

[butchersapron]

Sorry, that article says next to nothing about the demographics of the ukip vote. I did say I was wildly speculating, so hardly cutting to call my "assumptions" lazy. They were meant to be. But until you find something that says a bit moreusedul than some ukip voters are middle class and some are "financially marginal", whatever that is supposed to mean, I think crass and lazy is probably the way to go.

It says everything about UKIP 'demographics' (your term i think) if you know how to read it. For instance labour voting parents tells you about where they come from socially, work wise, geographically, and so on.

And more to the point, you haven't read the article anyway - you've read the puff piece that leads into it - the charts and stuff to entice you in.

 

[chilango]

People did exactly the same re the BNP. Who then used this to their advantage.

 

[Jon-of-arc]

It says everything about UKIP 'demographics' (your term i think) if you know how to read it. For instance labour voting parents tells you about where they come from socially, work wise, geographically, and so on.

And more to the point, you haven't read the article anyway - you've read the puff piece that leads into it - the charts and stuff to entice you in.

I skimmed it, looking for the bits about who votes for ukip. There's about two paragraphs, and they don't say much. I couldn't read the graphs on my phone. Will check them from my pc.

 

[butchersapron]

I skimmed it, looking for the bits about who votes for ukip. There's about two paragraphs, and they don't say much.

No there isn't. There is page after page after page.

 

[Jon-of-arc]

Honestly, what does that article say about age, region, occupation, affected by cuts, etc that you ask about? I see next to nothing. It says the core is middle class, plus some less well off. It says some rather obvious shit about populism, xenophobia, racism and euro scepticism, in one of the graphs, which pretty much backs up what I said. Where does it contradict my very lazy assumptions?

 

[Puddy_Tat]

On the basis of very limited analysis of people I know of who have put up UKIP posters, I'd say there's a strong representation of retired, white, middle class enough to think they are a cut above 'the lower orders' but not 'upper middle class', better off than many but convinced that they are hard done by, types who go for UKIP. The type who is permanently pissed off about the petty things in life. And is probably fairly homophobic / racist albeit in what they consider to be a 'respectable' sort of way (they would generally define themselves as pro British Way Of Life / Family Values, rather than overtly racists / homophobic. The "I'm not a racist but..." sort of type.)

I've also spotted a demographic out there that generally leans BNP-wards in most things, but regards the BNP as being too 'lower-class' for them, and may disagree with the welfare-ist bits of the BNP manifesto. One or two right wing loons on a forum I used to hang out on tended to dismiss the BNP for being 'left wing'. Not sure how well this matches the UKIP voters.

An 'anti EU' platform generally tends to do quite well, especially if someone spouts a few "everybody knows that the EU wants to ban this / force everyone to do that" platitudes.

And a lot of people tend to view MEP / local elections as 'not that important' so they feel more inclined to register a 'protest vote' such as UKIP than they would be at a general election.

Above reflects personal observations and does not have academic authority.

 

[butchersapron]

Honestly, what does that article say about age, region, occupation, affected by cuts, etc that you ask about? I see next to nothing. It says the core is middle class, plus some less well off. It says some rather obvious shit about populism, xenophobia, racism and euro scepticism, in one of the graphs, which pretty much backs up what I said. Where does it contradict my very lazy assumptions?

It answers the core question - class pretty definitively, and if you're unable to read anything else from that - then you're welcome to your ha ha fat tory bastards.

 

[Jon-of-arc]

No there isn't. There is page after page after page.

Ahh, able to access the document. Page 9 backs up my lazy assumptions. Middle aged to retired, professional/management, affected by the cuts somewhat, daily mail readers.

 

[butchersapron]

Ahh, able to access the document. Page 9 backs up my lazy assumptions. Middle aged to retired, professional/management, affected by the cuts somewhat, daily mail readers.

No it doesn't. Keep on digging.

Maybe you could offer something to back this claim up?

 

[Jon-of-arc]

No it doesn't. Keep on digging.

Maybe you could offer something to back this claim up?

71% aged 45+

52% skilled manual or professional, low but statistically insignificant compared to other parties unskilled/never worked, fuck knows what half the other categories even mean...

49% read anti immigrant papers

High worry about finances (probably concerned about all them johnny foreigners taking their jobs...), half way between Conservative and bnp.

Fat, old Tories.