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Tory Calls To Postpone 2015 General Election

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quiquaquo

Well-Known Member
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quiquaquo said:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/calls-to-postpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence

David Cameron will face calls to take the unprecedented step in modern peacetime of postponing next year's UK general election by 12 months in the event of a vote for Scottish independence to avoid the prospect of a Labour government that would depend on Scottish MPs.

In their dreams, blood would flow. :eek:
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to avoid the prospect of a Labour government
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Postpone indefinitely.
 
I doubt this would happen in reality - it would be a huge step to take, given the last time this happened was during WWII. One thing that jumps out of the article is that the HoL would quite possibly block the legislative changes anyway, so it would be dead in the water. They would have to repeal the most recent law and pass a new one to extend the term of this parliament, and as the HoL can block non-money bills then it doesn't seem likely to happen. I would also, as pointed out, make the government look massively weak and shit-scared of what the electorate might do to them for presiding over the break-up of the union.
 
quiquaquo said:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/calls-to-postpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence

David Cameron will face calls to take the unprecedented step in modern peacetime of postponing next year's UK general election by 12 months in the event of a vote for Scottish independence to avoid the prospect of a Labour government that would depend on Scottish MPs.

In their dreams, blood would flow. :eek:
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IIRC correctly, it was Cameron who wanted fixed terms. Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it. :D
 
So basically, Labour possibly on course to win in 2015, by a majority lower than the number of Scottish MPs. This would give Labour the chance to gerrymander the post Scotland Westminster electoral system in the year before those Scottish MPs (presumably) step down and leave parliament altogether. But the Tories don't like the idea of not being in power at such a pivotal point in political power play, so they'd rather trample constitutional norms which they just instituted.

That the gist of it?

Fuck me.
 
farmerbarleymow said:
I doubt this would happen in reality - it would be a huge step to take, given the last time this happened was during WWII. One thing that jumps out of the article is that the HoL would quite possibly block the legislative changes anyway, so it would be dead in the water. They would have to repeal the most recent law and pass a new one to extend the term of this parliament, and as the HoL can block non-money bills then it doesn't seem likely to happen. I would also, as pointed out, make the government look massively weak and shit-scared of what the electorate might do to them for presiding over the break-up of the union.
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parliament act - they can force legislation without lords consent as long as ti's been passed 3x by the commons then the lords can only delay, not block.

it's rarely used though. irish home rule, welsh disestablishment, the hunting act, and a handful of others, never been used by a tory gvt I think.

and i'm not sure if they would have the time to force past a lords block without rewriting the parliament act as well.
 
stupid kid said:
So basically, Labour possibly on course to win in 2015, by a majority lower than the number of Scottish MPs. This would give Labour the chance to gerrymander the post Scotland Westminster electoral system in the year before those Scottish MPs (presumably) step down and leave parliament altogether. But the Tories don't like the idea of not being in power at such a pivotal point in political power play, so they'd rather trample constitutional norms which they just instituted.

That the gist of it?

Fuck me.
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Well, how long does something need to be extant to become a norm? After all, we are not even completely through the first fixed parliament.

Please note: This is in no way an indication that I feel the election should be postponed. Bring it forward if anything.
 
Surely, Labour would (hypothetically) win, and then, if Scotland (hypothetically) votes yes this would trigger another general election as Labour would no longer have a majority, or whatever happens in that situation???

It's not rocket science.

Fuck living in a perma-tory England though :mad:
 
toggle said:
parliament act - they can force legislation without lords consent as long as ti's been passed 3x by the commons then the lords can only delay, not block.

it's rarely used though. irish home rule, welsh disestablishment, the hunting act, and a handful of others, never been used by a tory gvt I think.

and i'm not sure if they would have the time to force past a lords block without rewriting the parliament act as well.
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But it would be a very serious step to delay a general election itself - that is different from using the Parliament Acts to force something through, which as you said, might be slightly difficult given the timescale we're talking about. There is no real reason to delay a GE in the event of a yes vote, as the separation of the two countries wouldn't be immediate in any case, as there would be a transition period during which the country would have to be run, so delaying it a year wouldn't achieve anything really.
 
8115 said:
Surely, Labour would (hypothetically) win, and then, if Scotland (hypothetically) votes yes this would trigger another general election as Labour would no longer have a majority, or whatever happens in that situation???

It's not rocket science.

Fuck living in a perma-tory England though :mad:
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That's not correct, at least according to GE results from the past. The Scottish MP contingent has, IIRC, only altered the course of an election a handful of times since WWII. So it isn't a foregone conclusion - thank fuck. Although it is unpredictable what would happen should Scotland vote yes, and the tories start a massive round in infighting over presiding over the breakup of the union, and UKIP taking on a chunk of their votes.
 
farmerbarleymow said:
That's not correct, at least according to GE results from the past. The Scottish MP contingent has, IIRC, only altered the course of an election a handful of times since WWII. So it isn't a foregone conclusion - thank fuck. Although it is unpredictable what would happen should Scotland vote yes, and the tories start a massive round in infighting over presiding over the breakup of the union, and UKIP taking on a chunk of their votes.
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Oh thank goodness. I've heard somewhere before that Labour couldn't win without Scotland.
 
8115 said:
Oh thank goodness. I've heard somewhere before that Labour couldn't win without Scotland.
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It's something which has persistently done the rounds for years I think, but there is research that shows that it isn't correct. There is a link somewhere in the will you vote for independence thread - possibly posted by geminisnake if I remember rightly.
 
farmerbarleymow said:
That's not correct, at least according to GE results from the past. The Scottish MP contingent has, IIRC, only altered the course of an election a handful of times since WWII. So it isn't a foregone conclusion - thank fuck. Although it is unpredictable what would happen should Scotland vote yes, and the tories start a massive round in infighting over presiding over the breakup of the union, and UKIP taking on a chunk of their votes.
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Perhaps not swing the election, but a solid 44 seats is not to be sniffed at.
 
Sasaferrato said:
Perhaps not swing the election, but a solid 44 seats is not to be sniffed at.
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True, but if they don't swing elections as a rule they don't matter as much as elections are decided more on the marginals, which are of course numerically more in England due to the much larger number of MPs there. I hate this as much as anyone, but it is what it is unfortunately. :(
 
farmerbarleymow said:
But it would be a very serious step to delay a general election itself - that is different from using the Parliament Acts to force something through, which as you said, might be slightly difficult given the timescale we're talking about. There is no real reason to delay a GE in the event of a yes vote, as the separation of the two countries wouldn't be immediate in any case, as there would be a transition period during which the country would have to be run, so delaying it a year wouldn't achieve anything really.
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given that the durations of elections have been set for so short a time, it would IMO make it more serious for them to use the parliament act, but I don't think they could. and i think they woukld need a much better argument to get past the HOL than 'we want the chance to get our way, so labour dosen't get theirs'.

the only model of transition we have for the UK is Ireland, and I do wish I'd read some more of what my irish history lecturer wrote on seperating irish public services etc.
but I assume the seperations that have already taken place will ease the process somewhat.
 
toggle said:
given that the durations of elections have been set for so short a time, it would IMO make it more serious for them to use the parliament act, but I don't think they could. and i think they woukld need a much better argument to get past the HOL than 'we want the chance to get our way, so labour dosen't get theirs'.

the only model of transition we have for the UK is Ireland, and I do wish I'd read some more of what my irish history lecturer wrote on seperating irish public services etc.
but I assume the seperations that have already taken place will ease the process somewhat.
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Well, they wouldn't be able to claim any manifesto commitment to delaying the GE - quite the reverse given it was them who legislated for fixed 5 year terms in the first place. It would seem unlikely they'd be able to argue that it is essential in the national interest to delay it, justifying invoking the Parliament Acts, and as you said, basing it on not wanting their opponent's a chance to win in the planned GE wouldn't really wash with the HoL, or the electorate for that matter.

At least with England/Scotland, there is largely a substantial separation of public functions already due to the historically separate legal systems between the two, so that should make things slightly easier in the even of a yes vote.
 
before the lords reform, they might have got away with it, if they made an eloquent enough case for 'stability' rather than admitting they just wanted their way. but HOL now will, on occasion, tell them to go do one. or at least delay long enough that they have to.
 
farmerbarleymow said:
Well, they wouldn't be able to claim any manifesto commitment to delaying the GE - quite the reverse given it was them who legislated for fixed 5 year terms in the first place.
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salisbury convention iirc. named after the grandson of the last PM in the lords. because Atlee's gvt had a clear mandate for change. that went beyond constitutional reforms, that had previously been forced through the HOL by threatened action by the monarch.

they can't claim it and even if they did, it could be ignored. it's a convention only
 
So if this happened then it wouldn't matter who we voted for - we'd still get more privatisation, more endless war, attacks on labour rights, more erosion of civil rights, more attacks on the unemployed and disabled, more racist immigration policies and camps full of asylum seekers subject to unpaid labour, rape and abuse... oh wait.
 
butchersapron said:
Non-runner.
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Indeed. Even with the fixed parliament law there are ways in which an election can still happen early (in the event of the Scots Labour Mps fucking off). 2/3 of house calling for it or the government losing a vote of no confidence.

Edit, as you say, the idea of a postponement is a non-runner. What I really mean is there's no need for it.
 
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