SWP says vote Muslim Brotherhood!
- Thread starter One_Stop_Shop
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dylans
overlord of all acorns
The question of what to do in this situation is a tough one. One thing should be understood however. A victory for Shafiq would be an end to the revolution and a victory for the counter revolution. Quite possibly it could mean the arrest and execution of revolutionaries. He has already threatened as much. So, much as I dislike the SWP, I do understand why their Egyptian comrades the RS are taking this line. Sabbahi has been defeated. The only alternative to a vote for Mursi is a boycott, something that may lead to a victory for Shafiq.
I have thought long and hard about this and i am not comfortable with my conclusions but we have to consider the very real threat to the lives of those on the streets in Egypt. This is not academic and frankly, this is not the place for SWP bashing. I don't like the SWP much either but on this I have to (holds nose) agree with them. The MB are the least of a bad bunch. They have a base amongst the revolution and to an extent can be held to account through their base. They are already suffering from falling popularity due to their opportunism. They are weak and they are divided. A Muslim Brotherhood victory would mean that there is still room for struggle, a victory for Shafiq will mean bloodshed and death for many brave people. The alternative frankly is too awful to contemplate. So before attacking the SWP and more importantly the RS we have to answer the very real question of what happens if Shafiq is allowed to win and to drown the revolution in blood.
So reluctantly I have to conclude that they are right and the only option right now is a vote for Mursi.
love detective
there's no love too small
vote neoliberalism to protect the revolution
dylans
overlord of all acorns
What is your alternative to a vote for Mursi? Seriously, it is easy to be right on here safe in the UK but what do you suggest in the face of the possibility of a victory for Mubarak's man and the arrest, torture and execution of revolutionaries? It comes down to a simple question. Do you want Mubarak and the generals back or a government that is weak, divided and to an extent beholden to the streets?
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
We are all Muslim Brotherhood now.
love detective
there's no love too small
would real revolutionaries be safe from torture & execution in a MB controlled regime?
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Safer than under Shafiq? Absolutely. The Muslim brotherhood has a mandate from many who supported the revolution. It has a mass base amongst the working class. It is answerable for its actions and can be made to answer for its actions.
Lets be absolutly clear here. Shafiq means the crushing of the streets. It means the destruction of all opposition. It means arrest, torture and death and the RS as one of the smallest groups are probably the first on the list. This IS a shitty choice, no doubt about it but the stakes are very high. A victory for Shafiq would be a catastrophe
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
How would this work? What evidence have you got for this sort of claim?
ska invita
back on the other side
hopefully lesser of two evils. welcome to democracy egypt
dylans
overlord of all acorns
That the MB owes its support to its mass base? This is not in dispute. It has a mandate from large swathes of the country, particularly the countryside. It owes its electoral success to that support and to its deep roots amongst large sections of the population. On numerous occasions it has been forced to draw on the streets to press its demands and on numerous occasions it has had to backpeddle to meet the demands of its base. It has suffered internal division and splits. It is an opportunistic and treacherous organisation for sure but it is not Mubarak. A MB victory is distasteful there is no doubt about it but seriously, given the alternative what choice is there?
Shafiq on the other hand represents unadulterated counter revolution., He makes no secret of his hostility to the revolution., He was Mubaraks last appointed PM and he even talks about reinstating Omar Suleiman. A Shafiq victory would mean the crushing of the revolution and a return to life under the Mubarak regime. It would mean the crushing of the popular mass movement once and for all. The revolutionaries of Tahrir will have to go underground or risk arrest and death. This is the choice.
The one thing I have noticed from this thread is that noone has answered my question. What is the alternative?
love detective
there's no love too small
what's the alternative between supporting one undesirable reactionary force over another?
has the actual division of power between parliament, SCAF and the new presidential office actually been clarified by the way?
Fascism had a mass base - did that make it acceptable?
has the actual division of power between parliament, SCAF and the new presidential office actually been clarified by the way?
Fascism had a mass base - did that make it acceptable?
dylans
overlord of all acorns
So you see no difference between an Islamist organisation whose members and supporters in their millions supported and support the revolution and an unreconstructed counterrevolutionary representing the former regime? Fair enough, if that is your opinion then it follows that you should sit back and watch as Shafiq drowns the revolution in blood. This kind of ultraleftist nonsense is really easy when its not you facing torture and death.
and your fascism remark is just silly, The FJP are socially reactionary but they are not fascists.
love detective
there's no love too small
notice you weren't able to answer any of the three questions in my post
purenarcotic
Conveniently Pocket Sized
I'm not sure the Muslim Brotherhood is such an attractive option for the women who want full and free equality. As far as I was aware, they take quite a conservative line when it comes to women's rights.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
I answered the first. The argument that there is no difference between the FJP and Shafiq is ultraleft nonsense. I can't answer the second (sorry) and I answered the third. The FJP aren't a fascist organisation.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
They stink but what is the alternative? You do realise what a Shafiq victory will mean right?
love detective
there's no love too small
so you admit you have no idea what powers the president will have but you know for a fact what will definitely happen if someone gets elected to a post which you have no idea what power it will hold?
Who suggested the FJP were fascist? Your position so far has been that the MB are legitimate and should be supported because they have mass support. Fascism in Germany and Italy had mass support, so on that basis would you have see them as legitimate and therefore a force that should have been supported by the left?
I mean to not support Fascism in Germany and Italy at the time would have been counter revolutionary surely - can't have that can we - because all revolutions are progressive aren't they
elbows
Well-Known Member
Most of the alternatives evaporated by this point in the election. Most recently it was attempts to get Shafiq removed from proceedings by legal means, but these never looked likely to succeed at this late stage. Some of the important candidates who fell in the first round have been left with the choice of whether to tell their supporters to boycott the second round, or vote for the MB. None seem to have been willing to get real close to the MB by doing a deal to become vice-president, rather there seem to have been some attempts to seek a range of assurances from the MB which might enable some other parties to throw their weight behind the MB candidate, but from what I've read the attempts at some kind of unity don't tend to get far, and its no different now despite the late hour.
Whatever the outcome I am hesitant to say that it will mean the crushing of the revolution. This is in part because of how limited revolutionary gains were in certain key areas in the first place, but also because some of what was awakened by the revolution is not so easy to kill. Its not hard to imagine Shafiq cracking down brutally on various aspects of the protest movement, after all the security forces never really stopped brutalising people in the first place, they just swapped uniforms around for a while. But whats not so clear is how he & SCAF would go about undoing the changes that did occur on the political scene, e.g. the parliament and a number of parties that have sprung up. Certainly the regime may try to steadily put much of this stuff back in the box, but whether they will actually be able to is another question, one that doesn't go away once the presidential election results are known, nor when a constitution is created.
So although I think its quite reasonable to mourn for a revolution thats seen much of its potential seemingly whither before its core participants very eyes, who is to say what cracks it has created that may one day set the scene for some future turmoil that alters the regime more fundamentally than has happened this time around. There is a different mix of burning desires in Egypt than there used to be, even if people are crushed its a different kind of crushed than existed pre-uprising, and the shaky state of their economy and the global economy makes it hard to look at any country these days and predict that the existing regimes will have no trouble keeping a grip.
Whatever the outcome I am hesitant to say that it will mean the crushing of the revolution. This is in part because of how limited revolutionary gains were in certain key areas in the first place, but also because some of what was awakened by the revolution is not so easy to kill. Its not hard to imagine Shafiq cracking down brutally on various aspects of the protest movement, after all the security forces never really stopped brutalising people in the first place, they just swapped uniforms around for a while. But whats not so clear is how he & SCAF would go about undoing the changes that did occur on the political scene, e.g. the parliament and a number of parties that have sprung up. Certainly the regime may try to steadily put much of this stuff back in the box, but whether they will actually be able to is another question, one that doesn't go away once the presidential election results are known, nor when a constitution is created.
So although I think its quite reasonable to mourn for a revolution thats seen much of its potential seemingly whither before its core participants very eyes, who is to say what cracks it has created that may one day set the scene for some future turmoil that alters the regime more fundamentally than has happened this time around. There is a different mix of burning desires in Egypt than there used to be, even if people are crushed its a different kind of crushed than existed pre-uprising, and the shaky state of their economy and the global economy makes it hard to look at any country these days and predict that the existing regimes will have no trouble keeping a grip.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
elbows
Well-Known Member
Splits along generational lines certainly deserve more attention, and we have been very lucky when observing Egypt from afar that people like Hossam El Hamalawy have been able to puncture holes in the crude pictures people have in their minds of these different political groups.
Also a broader section of commentators noted with some interest that the MB didn't exactly run away with the first round of the presidential elections to the same extent that they came to dominate parliament. And despite ending up 3rd, the Nasserist-type candidate Sabahi should not be excluded from discussions about the political picture in Egypt. He got some large shares of the vote in certain very important locations, and it would be foolish to ignore this despite it being rather unclear by what means this phenomenon may influence proceedings in future.
Also a broader section of commentators noted with some interest that the MB didn't exactly run away with the first round of the presidential elections to the same extent that they came to dominate parliament. And despite ending up 3rd, the Nasserist-type candidate Sabahi should not be excluded from discussions about the political picture in Egypt. He got some large shares of the vote in certain very important locations, and it would be foolish to ignore this despite it being rather unclear by what means this phenomenon may influence proceedings in future.
One_Stop_Shop
Well-Known Member
dylan I'm not so sure why you are so certain that an election of the MB wouldn't result in a crack down on the left. Surely there could be the possibility of a similar situation to Iran. There an Islamist current became less and less moderate and the left found themselves hanging from lamp posts after giving critical support.
Unfortunately the election seems to give no choice at all, in terms of a vote, and maybe all that can be done, in my view, is organising outside of this election in terms of the trade unions, demonstrations, councils of actions etc
The irony of the quote from Hossam El Hamalawy is that while he denounces others for being too crude in their analysis, he does the same thing, with ridiculous suggestions such as saying those who oppose MB oppose anyone with a beard! The MB is a an organisation of many different views and factions, but that doesn't mean an election victory couldn't see the leadership engineering an Iran style situation.
PS As I'm not in Egypt I realise that it is hard to comment on a certain level, so obviously any one of us, without the facts on the ground, could be talking complete bollocks.
Unfortunately the election seems to give no choice at all, in terms of a vote, and maybe all that can be done, in my view, is organising outside of this election in terms of the trade unions, demonstrations, councils of actions etc
The irony of the quote from Hossam El Hamalawy is that while he denounces others for being too crude in their analysis, he does the same thing, with ridiculous suggestions such as saying those who oppose MB oppose anyone with a beard! The MB is a an organisation of many different views and factions, but that doesn't mean an election victory couldn't see the leadership engineering an Iran style situation.
PS As I'm not in Egypt I realise that it is hard to comment on a certain level, so obviously any one of us, without the facts on the ground, could be talking complete bollocks.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
The question I posed was how it would be made answerable for its actions and what evidence you have for the statement.
Others have already pointed out the likely realities once it takes power.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I find the comparison to Iran more ridiculous. A different time, a different people, a different branch of Islam (a factor that has real political and social significance), a regime comprehensively overthrown. An exiled religious leader who got mobbed by supporters when he flew back into the country.
It is true that many others played their part in Irans revolution and then got steadily picked off as Khomeini consolidated power. And Im sure Iran's history, institutions and political scene would have caused some to be complacent than a theocratic state was not especially likely to take hold there, so it is not too wise to make bold proclamations that a particular country couldn't possibly go in that direction. But that doesn't mean I think there is much value in trying to apply the history of Iran to anywhere else. Especially not Egypt where the military hold such power and where so many of their interests are in maintaining relations with the USA etc, not going down a path of relative isolation.
Plus the world has changed quite a bit, and one of the features of these struggles is the rather youthful demographics of the region, a feature which adds further clout to the whole 'westernisation' issue, and yet the issue does not seem to have as much clout as Irans revolutionary theocrats were able to make use of back in the day. This may be in part because the Iranian regime that was overthrown managed to trample on religious sentiment in a manner that upset more of the population than was the case in Egypt under Mubarak, so when the time came for change there wasn't so much pent-up religious steam in Egypt.
I do not wish to overstate the implications of this, but I would certainly suggest that it is impossible for us to judge the appetite for things such as strict Islamic law and domination over politics simply by looking at the level of support for Islamist or Islamic parties. Islam features heavily in the social safety net of countries like this, and such a role in peoples lives is always going to give them a place in the realm of politics also. But all sorts of erroneous conclusions could be drawn from looking at this stuff with a rather generic template for what Islam is, taking little account of the highly variable customs of different nations, regions and branches of Islam.
Plus in Egypt we know there is an added dimension stemming from one of Mubarak regimes key justifications for decades of repression. The Islamist bogeyman, fears that SCAF will no doubt be pleased they can still make use of when it suits. I can imagine some very cynical chuckles from those who are trying to manage things in a way that ensures regime survival, the candidates in the 2nd round of the presidential election gives them plenty of tasty options whatever the outcome. This is another reason not to get carried away with the threat posed by theocratic types in Egypt, it plays into the hands of other agendas. And at this point there is little doubt the sponsors of the other agenda, largely military, still have the upper hand in a big way. To avoid playing straight into that agenda, or the related western 'war on terror' one, we have to get into the detail.
You need to read up on the Iranian revolution.
I think there is one thing missing in Dylans' analysis and that's the response of the revolution to the possible regimes on offer. Shafiq will not have a free hand while the masses can still mobilise and may even act as a galvanising force but a victory for Mursi might serve to act as a lightning rod for dissent. The Muslim Brotherhood's weakness and division is surely a reflection of weakness and division in the revolt itself.
I'm not keen on the lesser evil logic. Perhaps more importantly it would be best to criticise the holding of elections while the country has few organised political organisations and those that exist are being bankrolled by the gulf states. Should the aim of the revolt have been the holding of elections anyway?
I'm not keen on the lesser evil logic. Perhaps more importantly it would be best to criticise the holding of elections while the country has few organised political organisations and those that exist are being bankrolled by the gulf states. Should the aim of the revolt have been the holding of elections anyway?
This is bollocks of course. It's a vote for stalling change and directing it in a petty clerical reactionary direction. There is a campaign to boycott the elections and deprive either candidate of popular legitimacy. Why can't the SWP/RS support the boycott? They criticise the Muslim Brotherhood for it's opportunism and craven attitude towards the SCAF, but they say nothing about it's Islamist ideology. The more youthful, revolutionary elements of the MB are still Islamists. The situation isn't like that of Iran 1979 but it seems that the SWP wish that were the case.
Ibn Khaldoun
the present is dead, long live the future . . .
It is possible to cast your ballot, then hold the candidate to account, and then a critique of the whole setup can follow . . .
I think the Egyptian elections have had a relatively low turnout (relative in terms of actual proper elections, possible after Mubarak . . .).
The MB themselves have always been an equivalent of 'her majesty's loyal opposition'. They are a tool of imperialism. Still, they are more responsive and fragile than the opponent. It is only as an immanent critique of the pseudo-democratic process that a victory for Mursi could be truly welcomed.
Ibn Khaldoun
the present is dead, long live the future . . .
Why do you think the MB are anti-imperialist, or something? That would make them worth voting for.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
And so
becomes (once again)
becomes (once again)
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