In the article linked here, written prior to the US conquest of Iraq, the country possessing the second largest reserves remaining, Dr Colin Cambell, discusses the relationship between the geological characteristics of existing oil and gas reserves, especially their properties with respect to depletion, and the rising international tensions centred on the Middle East.
Due to political constraints on Middle East production, the non-Middle East reserves, which are much smaller, are approaching depletion more rapidly than those in the Middle East. Some relatively unexploited areas also remain in places like Central Asia. The implication of depletion is that over the next decade or so, competition for Middle East oil, and any other un-depleted resources like those in Central Asia, is likely to increase greatly.
Depletion has already progressed to the point where the markets now react to tiny signals, but this just disguises the overall trend.
The major oil companies and producer countries have a tendency to lie about and otherwise distort the facts with respect to overall depletion. This tends to conceal the fact that most of the current alternatives to Middle East oil are heading towards the point where they'll be unable to meet demand, leading to increasing dependence on and competition for the remaining Middle East reserves. The US government is focussed on guaranteeing that their heavy domestic consumption can continue at everybody else's expense. This leads them to find justifications to use force to secure their ability to continue consuming, rather than working with the rest of us to find ways to deal with the enormous challenges presented by the peak of hydrocarbon production.
Further Info:
Hubbert Peak
Reading University: Oil Depletion Analysis Group
Business Week: Taming the Beast
Foreign Policy In Focus: The Oil Reckoning
The Nation: Oiling the Wheels of War
Together with other sources of information, some of which I'll link below a bleak overall picture starts to emerge.Future historians may look back and identify a degree of choreography in the present war on terror. At all events, the US is paying for troops to defend a Colombian export pipeline; it was implicated in a failed coup to depose the Venezuelan president, who was taking a tough line on oil; it has overthrown the government of Afghanistan on a proposed pipeline route; it has established military bases around the Caspian oilfields; and it threatens to invade Iraq, one of the last places left with substantial oil.
Due to political constraints on Middle East production, the non-Middle East reserves, which are much smaller, are approaching depletion more rapidly than those in the Middle East. Some relatively unexploited areas also remain in places like Central Asia. The implication of depletion is that over the next decade or so, competition for Middle East oil, and any other un-depleted resources like those in Central Asia, is likely to increase greatly.
Depletion has already progressed to the point where the markets now react to tiny signals, but this just disguises the overall trend.
The major oil companies and producer countries have a tendency to lie about and otherwise distort the facts with respect to overall depletion. This tends to conceal the fact that most of the current alternatives to Middle East oil are heading towards the point where they'll be unable to meet demand, leading to increasing dependence on and competition for the remaining Middle East reserves. The US government is focussed on guaranteeing that their heavy domestic consumption can continue at everybody else's expense. This leads them to find justifications to use force to secure their ability to continue consuming, rather than working with the rest of us to find ways to deal with the enormous challenges presented by the peak of hydrocarbon production.
Further Info:
Hubbert Peak
Reading University: Oil Depletion Analysis Group
Business Week: Taming the Beast
Foreign Policy In Focus: The Oil Reckoning
The Nation: Oiling the Wheels of War