Having now seen all the Best Movie contenders - which make up all of the nominee’s in the big 8 categories (barring a couple for August Osage thingy, which I simply detest everything about as far as I can tell, so sod it) I will offer my profound skill and judgement on the contenders:
Best Film
Gravity, 12 Years and Nebraska were the films that moved me most in their very different ways. In terms of the most amazing cinematic experience I think I have to plumb for Gravity, and think the academy will agree (tho 12 is obviously pretty much equally likely)
Director
So much of Gravity is the post-production, I'm giving this one to Steve McQueen. The academy will split this and Film between the two as well, one way or the other.
Actor
I wish I could say Bruce Dern, but it wasn't. Ejiofor and McConaughey are the clear favourites, and both gave superb performaces, but I think I'd go for Christian Bale as having to deliver a more nuanced performance, which he did.
The academy will go for McConaughey.
Actress
Well, it's just obviously Cate Blanchett. I'll fight anyone who disagrees. Up to and including Mickey Rourke.
Supporting Actor
Me - Leto narrowly ahead of Fassbender.
Academy - Abdi, tho either of mine could instead
Supporting Actress
Could be any of Hawkins, Lawrence or Nyong'o, but
Me - Lawrence
Academy - Nyong'o
Original Screenplay
The most interesting category in many ways, or at least the most wide open. I think any of the five could win, but i'd go for:
Me- Nebraska
Academy - American Hustle
Adapted Screenplay
Me & academy- 12 years, by a long antebellum mile
Foreign Language
I haven't seen Omar or the Missing Picture, but it doesn't matter. The Great Beauty should and will win.
Cinematography
I haven't seen Prisoners or the Grandmaster, but neither are gonna win, so...
Me - I just cant give the award to a film that's so much not in camera. So it's Inside Llewyn Davis. It had it's shortcomings overall for me, but looked perfect.
Academy - they have no such qualms. Gravity.
Shamefully, I haven’t seen any of the Best Docs, or Animated sections.
Main Oscar films, in order, imo
Gravity
12 Years A Slave
Nebraska
Great Beauty
American Hustle
The Hunt
Dallas Buyers Club
Broken Circle Breakdown
Philomena
Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
Blue Jasmine
Wolf of Wall Street
Best film omitted for the biggies, All Is Lost (not counting Blue Is the Warmest Colour for daft 'technical' reasons)