Osbourne: why has he allowed benefits uprating to 5.2%?

[treelover]

Just wondering about this, its not Osbornes, Cameron, instincts to allow this, in fact they have seen the welfare budget as easy raiding target with little public outrage/concern.

Has Clegg/Lib Dems ameliorated the budget, it is hard to change at short notice or is it something more sinster?, a wedge to divide these who are working from those on benefits, etc , ''my rise is only 1% yet the dolies are getting 5.2%'' a significant rise''

Yes, I know many in wage benefits will rise, but point still stands

 

[William of Walworth]

or is it something more sinster?, a wedge to divide these who are working from those on benefits, etc , ''my rise is only 1% yet the dolies are getting 5.2%'' a significant rise''

My inherent suspicion thinks this. Not certain, obviously, or even provable, but a real possibility.

 

[Sasaferrato]

If they think that we are going to accept 1% after a two year pay freeze, they can think again.

 

[William of Walworth]

If they think that we are going to accept 1% after a two year pay freeze, they can think again.

Who, public sector employees?

 

[jakethesnake]

5.2% of fuck all is still fuck all.

 

[elbows]

I think it may be because they are playing a longer-term game on this front. They changed the inflation link from RPI to CPI not very long ago. RPI includes mortgage interest rates, and it is usually thought that over the long term the RPI rises more than the CPI. But this year the CPI happened to go pretty damn high in September, the month that is used to calculate next Aprils benefits & state pensions rise.

Even though it seems like this coalition was attacking on every front since they came to power, in reality they have still needed a handful of policies that they can claim are fair. They made a big deal of reestablishing the link between pensions and earnings, and went further with a 'triple guarantee' that it would rise by the highest of 3 values - earnings, inflation or 2.5%. Certain benefits are treated the same as pensions, and they are not about to mess with this stuff so soon after establishing it, especially as it acts as cover for other things. They have already shown how they plan to attack the benefits system, e.g. the housing benefits stuff and sick/disabled people being judged fit to work, they don't need to directly erode the amounts in other ways right now.

As for a wedge between those in work and those not, I don't really think they need to drive that wedge in any harder at the moment, its already strong enough to serve its purpose when required. I heard a head teacher I know ranting on Facebook about his pension the other day, and then he proceeded to go off on the usual ignorant shitty crap about people on benefits. I doubt todays announcements will make much difference as nothing short of a complete change to benefits system would begin to satisfy his desire to see people on benefits bear an even greater burden, so there isn't much political gain in punishing them further at this moment.

 

[Greebo]

My inherent suspicion thinks this.<snip>

Agreed.

 

[William of Walworth]

Fair points from elbows mind.

I'll see I can ask around festivalsdeb's colleagues next week -- she works with benefits, and she/her colleagues/others in the field are all gathering for a mini-conference cum professional gathering.

(I'll just be joining em for the pubs bit ).

 

[elbows]

Anyway the following document which shows how the changes for next year will impact households, clearly indicates that those in the bottom decile get screwed. When measured in terms of percentage of net income, they get screwed worse than all groups other than the top decile.

As government reports go its not terribly large, skim through it and look at chart 1.B in particular, and the data is pretty clear for all to see.

http://cdn.hm-treasury.gov.uk/as2011_distributional_analysis.pdf

 

[elbows]

See here an article from October 2010 where the move from RPI to CPI inflation index was described as 'the most insidious cut'.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/...e-hits-pensions-benefits?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487

So its a bit of an anomaly that for once the move to CPI has resulted in greater benefit for people.

The public sector workers stuff announced today is the main story, not whats happened with benefits which barely gets a mention since the structure for this stuff is well known and so it was not in any way a surprise.

 

[binka]

If they think that we are going to accept 1% after a two year pay freeze, they can think again.

what exactly do you expect from the conservative party?

 

[smokedout]

the rise also applies to state pensions which will make up the bulk of the spend, he's not going there anytime soon (though he might in time) - he could have just applied it to JSA i suppose, but it would be messy and not sure he wanted to take the fall out - expect more wobbles like this as unemployment rises - tories are in a mess on welfare reform and would rather not have a light shined on it

 

[josef1878]

If they think that we are going to accept 1% after a two year pay freeze, they can think again.

That 1% rise will only be payable to those lucky enough to still have a job. Hopefully that announcement along with another estimated 300,000 job cuts will help swell the numbers tomorrow.

 

[caroline1973]

agree with the suspicions voiced above, that the increase in benefits now will be used in future against claimants. classic divide and rule tactics, especially when you consider they've reduced so called in work benefits too. also agree that this process is well underway already.

 

[scifisam]

It's accidental. They tied the rates in to CPI, thinking it would mean lower rises, but it's turned out otherwise for this brief period.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Just wondering about this, its not Osbornes, Cameron, instincts to allow this, in fact they have seen the welfare budget as easy raiding target with little public outrage/concern.

Has Clegg/Lib Dems ameliorated the budget, it is hard to change at short notice or is it something more sinster?, a wedge to divide these who are working from those on benefits, etc , ''my rise is only 1% yet the dolies are getting 5.2%'' a significant rise''

Yes, I know many in wage benefits will rise, but point still stands

Treasury cock-up/self-shaftage. They tied benefits to CPI plus (IIRC) 0.3% and are now, quite literally, having to pay the price for their economic hubris.

 

[ViolentPanda]

If they think that we are going to accept 1% after a two year pay freeze, they can think again.

You'll take what you're given and you'll like it, you dirty pinko subversive!

 

[treelover]

MSM just did it, contrasted the public sector 1% rise with the 5.2% rise for people on various benefits..

 

[trevhagl]

If they think that we are going to accept 1% after a two year pay freeze, they can think again.

!!!!!!!! Tory hates the Tories!!!

 

[William of Walworth]

See here an article from October 2010 where the move from RPI to CPI inflation index was described as 'the most insidious cut'.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/...e-hits-pensions-benefits?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487

So its a bit of an anomaly that for once the move to CPI has resulted in greater benefit for people.

The public sector workers stuff announced today is the main story, not whats happened with benefits which barely gets a mention since the structure for this stuff is well known and so it was not in any way a surprise.

What's happened with the legal challenge against the Govt in the High Court on the RPI/CPI thing?

The one initiated by PCS, Unison, FBU and one or two others, collectively?

I can't find anything recent and up to date about this court case to save my life.

Has there been a verdict yet?

 

[SaskiaJayne]

I would guess because it would be seen as deliberately hitting the poorest. Nobody really believes the 'workshy dole scroungers' thing & many see their jobs are at risk & the possibility of ending up on benefits themselves. These are all people he needs to vote Tory at next election.

 

[William of Walworth]

I would guess because it would be seen as deliberately hitting the poorest. Nobody really believes the 'workshy dole scroungers' thing & many see their jobs are at risk & the possibility of ending up on benefits themselves. These are all people he needs to vote Tory at next election.

IME here of late, more people believe that media driven shit than we can be comfortable with

 

[_angel_]

IME here of late, more people believe that media driven shit than we can be comfortable with

Yep. There's no recession, just a mass outbreak of laziness.

 

[kodokan]

Just wondering about this, its not Osbornes, Cameron, instincts to allow this, in fact they have seen the welfare budget as easy raiding target with little public outrage/concern.

Has Clegg/Lib Dems ameliorated the budget, it is hard to change at short notice or is it something more sinster?, a wedge to divide these who are working from those on benefits, etc , ''my rise is only 1% yet the dolies are getting 5.2%'' a significant rise''

Yes, I know many in wage benefits will rise, but point still stands

Social security benefits are a means of stopping social unrest, thus in a country like Britain, which is stable and which for centuries has had a solid status quo and unmoveable establishment benefits are historically low, in countries like the Rep of Ireland where the leaders could easily be overthrown by 100,000 or so people they are much higher.

 

[trevhagl]

That 1% rise will only be payable to those lucky enough to still have a job. Hopefully that announcement along with another estimated 300,000 job cuts will help swell the numbers tomorrow.

indeed. buy some CDs while you still can!

 

[ViolentPanda]

I would guess because it would be seen as deliberately hitting the poorest. Nobody really believes the 'workshy dole scroungers' thing & many see their jobs are at risk & the possibility of ending up on benefits themselves. These are all people he needs to vote Tory at next election.

I'm not sure I agree.
One of the features of such narratives as "workshy dole scroungers" is that they're not designed to be an up-front issue that can be argued rationally, they're designed to sit in the background, being absorbed, until they reach the status of a "common-sense" belief that can be referred back to by politicians and the media. The same narrative has been used before, on dolies as well as on trade unionists and anyone else who's an irritant to the govt. I've heard people who I'd otherwise consider politically-grounded come out with this stuff in the heat of the moment. usually, with a few monents of reflection, they realise they're talking shite, but IMO that show how deep this narrative runs.

 

[ViolentPanda]

IME here of late, more people believe that media driven shit than we can be comfortable with

Get saturated with enough propaganda and it's possible to start believing it, in spite of rational knowledge to the contrary.

 

[elbows]

What's happened with the legal challenge against the Govt in the High Court on the RPI/CPI thing?

The one initiated by PCS, Unison, FBU and one or two others, collectively?

I can't find anything recent and up to date about this court case to save my life.

Has there been a verdict yet?

Funny you should ask, as it was just on the news today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15999970

The government's public sector pensions policy has been given a major boost following a High Court ruling.
Trade unions had complained about how pensions are being protected against inflation, with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) replacing the faster-rising Retail Prices Index (RPI).
The High Court has now ruled that the government's switch was lawful.

 

[KeeperofDragons]

[quote="treelover, post: 1068525] is it something more sinster?, a wedge to divide these who are working from those on benefits, etc , ''my rise is only 1% yet the dolies are getting 5.2%'' a significant rise'[/quote]

Yes

 

[William of Walworth]

Funny you should ask, as it was just on the news today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15999970

That's seriously major news

Needs more publicity etc.

But it looks very much like that particular challenge is now dead and buried legally.

No hope of any appeal? I doubt it .... my lawyer mate here (senior in local governmnt, but also Unison, so supportive, but also objective) said a couple of weeks ago to me that this legal challenge was unilkely to succeed in his opinion.

Proved right by the look of it.

Looks like lottery hopes need reviving instead ...