Coming collapse of the American Empire?

[Idris2002]

So what's it going to be?

The fall of Rome?

The dismantling of der Berliner Mauer?

Or Suez American style?

Or perhaps 'Civil War 2, Electric Boogaloo'?

What form do you think the coming collapse of the American empire will take?

 

[DotCommunist]

civil war, balkanisation, mexican takeover.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Fall of Rome. Protracted, messy, denial from within that it is even happening.

 

[DotCommunist]

theres a book by Octavia Butler called 'The Parable of the Sower' about the protracted collapse of an american society that fractures along class and racial lines as the ecology breaks down. Central governance- so long whittled away at by chest-beating indivdualists- has completely collapsed and hordes of end-of-the-world people rampage just burning and looting while isolated pockets survive in armed enclosures.

its a bit depressing tbh but Butler is a great writer.

 

[classicdish]

What form do you think the coming collapse of the American empire will take?

No reason for it to collapse any time soon.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The optimist in me sees a possible future in which a prolonged failure of capitalism leads to change from within the US to alternative forms of investment and production.

 

[J Ed]

North Korean invasion like the Red Dawn sequel

 

[littlebabyjesus]

No reason for it to collapse any time soon.

I can give you one big contributory factor that may be approaching very quickly - a free-floating renminbi.

 

[eoin_k]

China will start having to come to the rescue, as US military adventures go increasingly badly, continuing a gradual shift in power over the next 50 years, but also cementing a Sino-American alliance at the same time... or world revolution leading to full communism.

 

[DotCommunist]

North Korean invasion like the Red Dawn sequel

re-make. Easily the funniest film of last year for me. the overnight transformation of these kids from high school twats into some american viet cong was just LOL

 

[classicdish]

I can give you one big contributory factor that may be approaching very quickly - a free-floating renminbi.

Sorry but you'll have to explain that one to me.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

China will start having to come to the rescue, as US military adventures go increasingly badly, continuing a gradual shift in power over the next 50 years, but also cementing a Sino-American alliance at the same time... or world revolution leading to full communism.

I would think rather that China will increasingly see the US as an irrelevance. What purpose would an alliance with a fading US serve for the Chinese?

 

[butchersapron]

This is something i wrote about Arrighi's thesis on long term patterns of dominance a few years back - seem to stand up well to me:

Well, as you hint at towards the end of the OP the situation isn't historically unique - arrighi (and silver) looked at what happened to the leader of each historical cycle/international system - Florence, Venice, Genoa, Holland, Britain - and found that the collapse of their dominance was always foreshadowed by a massive rise in speculation and financialisation followed by massive indebtedness. And this always happened because a) their dominance allowed it to happen even after the reasons for their original rise to power had long gone (greater productivity, unified internal markets etc) - everyone else relied on it happening for one reason or another or could not stop it and b) the rising new leader state needed it to happen - i.e china and the US are currently totally inter-dependent - the US needs Chinese money and the Chinese needs US markets. I'm wary of going as far as he did but the matching of the patterns are remarkable.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Sorry but you'll have to explain that one to me.

A doubling overnight of the price of Chinese goods, and a cutting off of credit lines. The Chinese have been threatening to do it for years, but haven't yet - but they are essentially ripping themselves off by undervaluing their exports. The Romans did similar things when they had an empire - empire through bankruptcy.

 

[butchersapron]

I would think rather that China will increasingly see the US as an irrelevance. What purpose would an alliance with a fading US serve for the Chinese?

To buy the goods that give them their power and keep their proletarians and rural labourers quiet. There's already a de facto alliance.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

To buy the goods that give them their power and keep their proletarians and rural labourers quiet. There's already a de facto alliance.

Yes. but I would see that alliance declining, not increasing in importance.

 

[butchersapron]

Yes. but I would see that alliance declining, not increasing in importance.

Why? What's going to happen to the current interdependence?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Why? What's going to happen to the current interdependence?

At some point, the Chinese cut their losses by floating the currency (which will wipe a huge amount off the value of the US debts, but will also reduce US ability to buy Chinese goods).

 

[butchersapron]

At some point, the Chinese cut their losses by floating the currency (which will wipe a huge amount off the value of the US debts, but will also reduce US ability to buy Chinese goods).

Why would they do that? Why would they render themselves commercially powerless and prey to to internal ructions and whilst opening themselves up to US military action? (Asia might have all the money, the US has all the guns). Interdependence in this case means that both sides are benefiting. What on earth would drive the chinese state to sabotage this mutually beneficial relationship?

 

[Idris2002]

, mexican takeover.

You forget that the Mounties always get their man.

 

[8ball]

Zombies.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Why would they do that? Why would they render themselves commercially powerless and prey to to internal ructions and whilst opening themselves up to US military action? (Asia might have all the money, the US has all the guns). Interdependence in this case means that both sides are benefiting. What on earth would drive the chinese state to sabotage this mutually beneficial relationship?

Why would they do that? Because they don't just trade with the US. In addition to seeking exports, they need imports. Their investments in Africa, for example, become cheaper to finance with a strong currency. So as the balance shifts, the imperative to undervalue the currency changes. Few see that undervaluing continuing for ever; few see the US debt as it is now ever being repaid.

At some point, China may be in a position to have the reserve currency of the world. Other countries are already shifting away from the US dollar.

 

[butchersapron]

Why would they do that? Because they don't just trade with the US. In addition to seeking exports, they need imports. Their investments in Africa, for example, become cheaper to finance with a strong currency. So as the balance shifts, the imperative to undervalue the currency changes. Few see that undervaluing continuing for ever; few see the US debt as it is now ever being repaid.

Why would they destabilise their core economic relationship - the one that all their others are based around (including investment in china itself) in order to increase marginal profits in a less important areas and open themselves up to retaliatory measures? It makes no sense on any level whatsoever.

 

[Idris2002]

North Korean invasion like the Red Dawn sequel

 

[Pickman's model]

So what's it going to be?

The fall of Rome?

The dismantling of der Berliner Mauer?

Or Suez American style?

Or perhaps 'Civil War 2, Electric Boogaloo'?

What form do you think the coming collapse of the American empire will take?

it will be like in stephen king's book, 'the stand'

 

[Idris2002]

Why would they destabilise their core economic relationship - the one that all their others are based around (including investment in china itself) in order to increase marginal profits in a less important areas and open themselves up to retaliatory measures? It makes no sense on any level whatsoever.

The problem with that is that the whole point of 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' wasn't to become Washington's bitch, but to overcome the shame of national decline and restore China to its old greatness. That's why they will engage in provocations like this:

Vietnam’s communist government allowed thousands of citizens to protest in the nation’s biggest cities to denounce a Chinese oil rig placed in contested waters that has led to clashes between ships from the two countries.

The U.S. has criticized China for taking “provocative” and “unilateral” actions. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on May 8 that China had engaged in “dangerous conduct and intimidation.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-11/vietnamese-take-to-streets-to-protest-china-oil-rig.html

After Suez, the Brits were able to settle for the consolation prize that they were playing the ancient Greeks to America's New Rome. Such self-delusion won't be available to China. For them it has to be 'go hard or go home'. I have a colleague who works on China's interest in Africa, and she's convinced that Washington and Beijing will form a new global protection racket and divvy up the world between them. I think this 'odd couple' may turn out to be too odd for its own good, or for its long-term survival.

 

[Idris2002]

it will be like in stephen king's book, 'the stand'

Ah yes, which I read during that totally bitching and rad summer of '87.

 

[DotCommunist]

now I'm picturing Senator McAin dressed as Randall Flagg and dubya as a burned out Trashcan Man

 

[butchersapron]

The problem with that is that the whole point of 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' wasn't to become Washington's bitch, but to overcome the shame of national decline and restore China to its old greatness. That's why they will engage in provocations like this:




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-11/vietnamese-take-to-streets-to-protest-china-oil-rig.html

After Suez, the Brits were able to settle for the consolation prize that they were playing the ancient Greeks to America's New Rome. Such self-delusion won't be available to China. For them it has to be 'go hard or go home'. I have a colleague who works on China's interest in Africa, and she's convinced that Washington and Beijing will form a new global protection racket and divvy up the world between them. I think this 'odd couple' may turn out to be too odd for its own good, or for its long-term survival.

But what about the current dynamic (steadily increasing chinese financial and industrial power based on selling stuff to the US and gulping up US capital in FDI whilst the US stagnates and eats up money in military spending) suggests they see this as being 'Washington's bitch' rather than being rather happy at the way the dynamic is working out for them and for the US?

 

[Idris2002]

But what about the current dynamic (steadily increasing chinese financial and industrial power based on selling stuff to the US and gulping up US capital in FDI whilst the US stagnates and eats up money in military spending) suggests they see this as being 'Washington's bitch' rather than being rather happy at the way the dynamic is working out for them and for the US?

Stuff like this, from last year:

Reports that a Chinese navy vessel tried this month to force a US warship to a halt in international waters have senior US officials and longtime Asia analysts asking what, precisely, China was trying to prove by the maneuver.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Secu...na-forced-a-confrontation-at-sea-with-US-Navy