Surprised that there is no thread yet on the Doklam stand off between China and India.
Here's a brief breakdown of the situation.
1- A successful India represents an existential and ideological threat to the CCP, as it undermines the historical narrative they promote of a China-centric world order being the norm. A protracted period of Indian growth outstripping Chinese growth will also prove that the CCP are not miracle workers, and that their draconian rule is not an inevitable outcome of having a large population.
2- China is on the verge of a serious economic crisis caused by over-investment in real estate and rapidly ballooning debt. Attempts to balance the economy towards a consumer economy have mostly been abandoned in favour of delaying the crash through growing the national debt while tightening censorship and ideological controls, building a personality cult, and promoting an increasingly militarist nationalism. This is my own reading, but it looks very much like the CCP hopes to weather the coming economic crisis through tight control of the narrative and placing responsibility elsewhere. Further to this, India is now the place of choice for a large supply of cheap labour, and China's industrial base is in decline as a result.
3- "One Belt One Road" is Xi Jinping's big project, designed to deal with China's overcapacity problem by building a series of infrastructure projects across central Asia, South East Asia, and Africa. This is at the same time an attempt to build a China-centric world order, and has attracted criticism and suspicion that its real aim is to indebt weak countries to China, and use infrastructure to transport raw materials out of countries involved and transport Chinese products into the countries involved. East India Company Mk 2, essentially. Pakistan, India's arch-enemy, is China's key ally in this because through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor China can have easy access to the Indian ocean through a deep sea port it is funding in Pakistan's restive Balochistan province. China has pissed off India by building infrastructure projects in regions of Kashmir claimed by India without any consultation from India, only from Pakistan.
4- India has provoked China's ire by boycotting One Belt One Road, and teaming up with China's arch nemesis Japan to promote a competing Asia-Africa Growth Corridor. The two countries have also came into competition in the Indian Ocean with a naval build up and rivalry in port projects and influence over Sri Lanka.
5- The Chinese leadership seems to have miscalculated in Doklam, an area of Bhutan claimed by the Chinese. This is strategically important because it gives China the "high ground" militarily above the area where a relatively thin part of land separates North East India from the rest of the country. China started building roads in the area, in an echo of the so called salami slicing strategy used in the South China Sea - slowly and imperceptibly changing the status quo (e.g. through island building) and then claiming sovereignty. India has called China's bluff by blocking the construction of the road, and their troops have clashed with Chinese troops. No shooting yet, but fist fights and stone throwing between the two coutries' armies.
Neither side can back down without losing face, and both Modi and Xi are ambitious leaders with a lot to lose. It is pretty difficult to see how this is going to wind down, and it seems like it is escalating if anything, with India responding in recent days by strengthening its control over the Indian Ocean and the Chinese Navy carrying out rare "live fire drills." Given the wider geo-political conflicts of interest between the two countries, (especially with regards to OBOR and AAGC, China's alliance with Pakistan, and Indian's alliance with Japan) is this shaping up to be the Asian cold war of the 21st Century? And could we blunder into WW3 this way?
The big thing to look at is the upcoming BRICs conference in Xiamen. If India boycotts it, that would be a huge loss of face for Xi and a serious escalation which would be difficult to go back from. Also of significance is where Russia will stand - it traditionally has good relations with India, and at the moment it is a close ally of China, but they have had a hostile relationship in the recent past. Most likely it will strive to stay neutral, but both India and China will be attempting to drive a wedge between each other's relationship with Russia.
Here's a brief breakdown of the situation.
1- A successful India represents an existential and ideological threat to the CCP, as it undermines the historical narrative they promote of a China-centric world order being the norm. A protracted period of Indian growth outstripping Chinese growth will also prove that the CCP are not miracle workers, and that their draconian rule is not an inevitable outcome of having a large population.
2- China is on the verge of a serious economic crisis caused by over-investment in real estate and rapidly ballooning debt. Attempts to balance the economy towards a consumer economy have mostly been abandoned in favour of delaying the crash through growing the national debt while tightening censorship and ideological controls, building a personality cult, and promoting an increasingly militarist nationalism. This is my own reading, but it looks very much like the CCP hopes to weather the coming economic crisis through tight control of the narrative and placing responsibility elsewhere. Further to this, India is now the place of choice for a large supply of cheap labour, and China's industrial base is in decline as a result.
3- "One Belt One Road" is Xi Jinping's big project, designed to deal with China's overcapacity problem by building a series of infrastructure projects across central Asia, South East Asia, and Africa. This is at the same time an attempt to build a China-centric world order, and has attracted criticism and suspicion that its real aim is to indebt weak countries to China, and use infrastructure to transport raw materials out of countries involved and transport Chinese products into the countries involved. East India Company Mk 2, essentially. Pakistan, India's arch-enemy, is China's key ally in this because through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor China can have easy access to the Indian ocean through a deep sea port it is funding in Pakistan's restive Balochistan province. China has pissed off India by building infrastructure projects in regions of Kashmir claimed by India without any consultation from India, only from Pakistan.
4- India has provoked China's ire by boycotting One Belt One Road, and teaming up with China's arch nemesis Japan to promote a competing Asia-Africa Growth Corridor. The two countries have also came into competition in the Indian Ocean with a naval build up and rivalry in port projects and influence over Sri Lanka.
5- The Chinese leadership seems to have miscalculated in Doklam, an area of Bhutan claimed by the Chinese. This is strategically important because it gives China the "high ground" militarily above the area where a relatively thin part of land separates North East India from the rest of the country. China started building roads in the area, in an echo of the so called salami slicing strategy used in the South China Sea - slowly and imperceptibly changing the status quo (e.g. through island building) and then claiming sovereignty. India has called China's bluff by blocking the construction of the road, and their troops have clashed with Chinese troops. No shooting yet, but fist fights and stone throwing between the two coutries' armies.
Neither side can back down without losing face, and both Modi and Xi are ambitious leaders with a lot to lose. It is pretty difficult to see how this is going to wind down, and it seems like it is escalating if anything, with India responding in recent days by strengthening its control over the Indian Ocean and the Chinese Navy carrying out rare "live fire drills." Given the wider geo-political conflicts of interest between the two countries, (especially with regards to OBOR and AAGC, China's alliance with Pakistan, and Indian's alliance with Japan) is this shaping up to be the Asian cold war of the 21st Century? And could we blunder into WW3 this way?
The big thing to look at is the upcoming BRICs conference in Xiamen. If India boycotts it, that would be a huge loss of face for Xi and a serious escalation which would be difficult to go back from. Also of significance is where Russia will stand - it traditionally has good relations with India, and at the moment it is a close ally of China, but they have had a hostile relationship in the recent past. Most likely it will strive to stay neutral, but both India and China will be attempting to drive a wedge between each other's relationship with Russia.
