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Exit polls for yesterday's parliamentary elections in Ukraine are suggesting a huge and unexpected surge for the Far Right Svoboda party.
Despite the presence of Klitschko's new party which was expected to (and did) mop up a huge amount of protest votes, Svoboda have went from picking up 0.76% in the 2007 parliament election to around 12% yesterday based on the latest exist polls. In absolute terms this is an increase from around 178,000 votes in 2007 to around 3 million yesterday and will give them around 30-40 seats in parliament where previously they held none. As late as last week it was looking doubtful as to whether they would even pass the 5% threshold to get any representation at all in parliament.
Also in contrast to most Ukrainian politics which is heavily polarised on a pro-russian east & anti-russian/pro ukranian west basis they seem to have done well across the whole country. Managing a stunning result in Kiev region where they came second overall picking up a quarter of the votes while winning three oblasts (administrative regions) outright in the west where they had previously been gaining strong support in local elections since 2010 (including Lviv region, plus two other neighbouring ones all in the 'polish' western part of ukraine that is close to the border with Poland and Slovakia).
The results in the west are a bit more understandable due to their heavy anti-russian rhetoric which has seen them building up quite a decent support in that area, but that they are managing to extend that to other areas is something new (although I suspect they will never be able to break into the 'real' ukrainian pro-russian east in places like Donetsk, however in 2007 they were picking up the same kind of share of the vote in Donetsk as they were in Kiev region, i.e. next to nothing, yet have now taken a quarter of Kiev)
I was in Ukraine for 6 weeks during the time of the 2007 parliamentary elections and spent time in all three of those western regions that they won yesterday and back then they and the Far Right in general were completely invisible in both constitutional and street politics, likewise in Kiev and even less visible in the pro-russian eastern regions. Politics in general there (in the west) were always dominated quite heavily by 'new' ukrainian nationalism and chauvinistic attitudes but that was provided by the political centre, so this shift to the far right there is even more marked, ditto the increased support for an anti-russian party (in rhetoric at least) in the pro russian east is fairly significant. Economic factors have obviously played a part in this as well, with unemployment tripling , the economy contracting by one of the highest amounts in the world (around 15%) in one year, and the currency devaluing by around 60%. The left meanwhile, like elsewhere, are only noticeable by their absence
Svoboda (which translates as Freedom) are part of the same European grouping that the BNP & Jobik are part off (and that Frances FN have recently left) and over the last decade have went through a de-toxifying phase similar to the BNP (also like Griffin their leader was charged, and cleared of inciting racial hatred), which shows how much bigger the pool to fish in can be without substantially changing the base politics
Logo went from:-
To the much more cuddlier:-
Despite the presence of Klitschko's new party which was expected to (and did) mop up a huge amount of protest votes, Svoboda have went from picking up 0.76% in the 2007 parliament election to around 12% yesterday based on the latest exist polls. In absolute terms this is an increase from around 178,000 votes in 2007 to around 3 million yesterday and will give them around 30-40 seats in parliament where previously they held none. As late as last week it was looking doubtful as to whether they would even pass the 5% threshold to get any representation at all in parliament.
Also in contrast to most Ukrainian politics which is heavily polarised on a pro-russian east & anti-russian/pro ukranian west basis they seem to have done well across the whole country. Managing a stunning result in Kiev region where they came second overall picking up a quarter of the votes while winning three oblasts (administrative regions) outright in the west where they had previously been gaining strong support in local elections since 2010 (including Lviv region, plus two other neighbouring ones all in the 'polish' western part of ukraine that is close to the border with Poland and Slovakia).
The results in the west are a bit more understandable due to their heavy anti-russian rhetoric which has seen them building up quite a decent support in that area, but that they are managing to extend that to other areas is something new (although I suspect they will never be able to break into the 'real' ukrainian pro-russian east in places like Donetsk, however in 2007 they were picking up the same kind of share of the vote in Donetsk as they were in Kiev region, i.e. next to nothing, yet have now taken a quarter of Kiev)
I was in Ukraine for 6 weeks during the time of the 2007 parliamentary elections and spent time in all three of those western regions that they won yesterday and back then they and the Far Right in general were completely invisible in both constitutional and street politics, likewise in Kiev and even less visible in the pro-russian eastern regions. Politics in general there (in the west) were always dominated quite heavily by 'new' ukrainian nationalism and chauvinistic attitudes but that was provided by the political centre, so this shift to the far right there is even more marked, ditto the increased support for an anti-russian party (in rhetoric at least) in the pro russian east is fairly significant. Economic factors have obviously played a part in this as well, with unemployment tripling , the economy contracting by one of the highest amounts in the world (around 15%) in one year, and the currency devaluing by around 60%. The left meanwhile, like elsewhere, are only noticeable by their absence
Svoboda (which translates as Freedom) are part of the same European grouping that the BNP & Jobik are part off (and that Frances FN have recently left) and over the last decade have went through a de-toxifying phase similar to the BNP (also like Griffin their leader was charged, and cleared of inciting racial hatred), which shows how much bigger the pool to fish in can be without substantially changing the base politics
Logo went from:-
To the much more cuddlier:-