2015 anti Cons: Where did it all go wrong?

[paolo]

Normally, when there's a collapse on the left, fragmentation is a first call. Self divide and (fail to ) conquer.

The polls suggested though, that the anti tory bloc had it, despite the splintering. The votes - well - we all know now.

What happened?

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Well, the polls were wrong because UKIP, the Lib Dem collapse, mass cynicism and the erosion of tribal political loyalty were all too much for psephologists to model, while at the same time compensating for the oddities of online and telephone polling recruitment, neither of which attracts balanced samples.

What happened to voters? Four years of unchallenged Tory narrative on austerity and the Labour legacy, and a Labour party that retreated into meaningless, fuzzy new-left comfort politics. Also, the fucking woad-smeared splitter Picts.

 

[danny la rouge]

Also, the fucking woad-smeared splitter Picts.

Utter bollocks.

Even had Scottish Labour retained all their 41 seats, they still would not have had enough to take them close to 325 seats. Labour nationally are projected to take 232 seats. Even had they won all of Scotland's 59 seats - something they've never done - that would still have left them well short of a majority. (And in that scenario, with no party large enough to do a deal with to get them closer to a workable majority).

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Utter bollocks.

Even had Scottish Labour retained all their 41 seats, they still would not have had enough to take them close to 325 seats. Labour nationally are projected to take 232 seats. Even had they won all of Scotland's 59 seats - something they've never done - that would still have left them well short of a majority. (And in that scenario, with no party large enough to do a deal with to get them closer to a workable majority).

Yes, but it was the threat of you Braveheart cunts, deployed by the Tories' press lapdogs, that helped to finish Labour off in England and Wales.

 

[Pickman's model]

Well, the polls were wrong because UKIP, the Lib Dem collapse, mass cynicism and the erosion of tribal political loyalty were all too much for psephologists to model, while at the same time compensating for the oddities of online and telephone polling recruitment, neither of which attracts balanced samples.

What happened to voters? Four years of unchallenged Tory narrative on austerity and the Labour legacy, and a Labour party that retreated into meaningless, fuzzy new-left comfort politics. Also, the fucking woad-smeared splitter Picts.

always the one for peculiar racial slurs

 

[danny la rouge]

Yes, but it was the threat of you Braveheart cunts, deployed by the Tory's press lapdogs, that helped to finish Labour off in England and Wales.

If Labour can't win enough seats to govern, they don't govern. They didn't and they don't.

 

[paolo]

I'm a unionist, but the numbers surely can't suggest that the SNP degraded the anti tory bloc?

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes, but it was the threat of you Braveheart cunts, deployed by the Tories' press lapdogs, that helped to finish Labour off in England and Wales.

labour sufficiently adept at being crap to fuck things up without a need for assistance

 

[Maurice Picarda]

I'm a unionist, but the numbers surely can't suggest that the SNP degraded the anti tory bloc?

Their triumph provided the key piece of anti-Labour messaging. Anyway, there is no bloc.

 

[brogdale]

In a competition to be a neo-liberal, small state, nationalist party...there's really only going to be one winner...and they did.

 

[danny la rouge]

And here's a thing: the narrative in the media and from the Blairite right in Labour is that Ed Miliband went "too far left". Ed Miliband. If that's "too far left", if even that is further left than is permissible to the Westminster system and British civil society, then there really is no capacity in British electoral politics to protect the poor and vulnerable.

 

[paolo]

Their triumph provided the key piece of anti-Labour messaging. Anyway, there is no bloc.

Just work the numbers.

If all the SNP seats were labour, there's no difference. Cons still in.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Just work the numbers.

If all the SNP seats were labour, there's no difference. Cons still in.

The point is, some - quite possibly, a game-changing number - of voters thought they were choosing between one of two options: Tories moderated by Lib Dems on the one hand, and Labour dominated by savage North Britons on the other.

Whether this narrative was fair or not, it certainly made a difference, and it was only made possible by Lab-SNP switchers.

 

[Dogsauce]

I don't think we'll know until there's some polling to work out where votes moved around, and who did and didn't vote. Without that it's all speculation. Could be kipper-supporting tories going back to the fold because they had something to fight for, whereas Labour offered their supporters that had gone to UKIP nothing. It's not a massive percentage victory, hardly a rout on percentage terms, just some misfortune in where those votes fell, and maybe some effective campaigning in marginals.

 

[danny la rouge]

The point is, some - quite possibly, a game-changing number - of voters thought they were choosing between one of two options: Tories moderated by Lib Dems on the one hand, and Labour dominated by savage North Britons on the other.

Whether this narrative was fair or not, it certainly made a difference, and it was only made possible by Lab-SNP switchers.

So the savage Picts should have the civility to be tame and vote in a way that is acceptable to decent society so that real civilised voters might not be afeared to vote Labour?

Listen to yourself.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

So the savage Picts should have the civility to be tame and vote in a way that is acceptable to decent society so that real civilised voters might not be afeared to vote Labour?
.

It's a scenario which would have made a Conservative majority less likely, yes. Which was the question posed by the OP.

 

[danny la rouge]

It's a scenario which would have made a Conservative majority less likely, yes. Which was the question posed by the OP.

First learn to count. Then we can discuss where else you're wrong.

 

[redsquirrel]

I'm a unionist, but the numbers surely can't suggest that the SNP degraded the anti tory bloc?

And yet Labour supporters and MPs are still arguing this line, despite the fact that Scotland has returned less coalition MPs than they did in 2010.

Seriously can't see any way back for Labour in Scotland they can't even begin to comprehend why so many people deserted them. All they've got is hectoring and finger wagging.

 

[danny la rouge]

And yet Labour supporters and MPs are still arguing this line, despite the fact that Scotland has returned less coalition MPs than they did in 2010.

Seriously can't see any way back for Labour in Scotland they can't even begin to comprehend why so many people deserted them. All they've got is hectoring and finger wagging.

Precisely.

 

[paolo]

And yet Labour supporters and MPs are still arguing this line, despite the fact that Scotland has returned less coalition MPs than they did in 2010.

Seriously can't see any way back for Labour in Scotland they can't even begin to comprehend why so many people deserted them. All they've got is hectoring and finger wagging.

An attempt to label as socialist factionalism indeed, but this time, the numbers don't add up.

 

[coley]

It's a scenario which would have made a Conservative majority less likely, yes. Which was the question posed by the OP.

Don't think it can be argued that the thought of a Milliband government depending on the SNP scared a lot of people.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Don't think it can be argued that the thought of a Milliband government depending on the SNP scared a lot of people.

Really? I don't think that the Tories or their allies would have relied on it so heavily if they didn't think it was getting traction.

 

[Treacle Toes]

Yes, but it was the threat of you Braveheart cunts, deployed by the Tories' press lapdogs, that helped to finish Labour off in England and Wales.

Fuck off with this shit....The only one who sounds tory here is you.

 

[redsquirrel]

Fuck off with this shit....The only one who sounds tory here is you.

Because he is, he may vote red but we all know what he is really.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Fuck off with this shit....The only one who sounds tory here is you.

I genuinely blame Mel Gibson for a lot of this. Without that silly film, the absurd notion that Scotland would be better off as an independent country would not have taken off.

 

[Sirena]

Miliband was the overwhelming problem, I think. He is the symbol of the party and, however well-intentioned he may be, he still comes across as a bit of cartoon character.

 

[paolo]

Miliband was the overwhelming problem, I think. He is the symbol of the party and, however well-intentioned he may be, he still comes across as a bit of cartoon character.

Polling in the last few weeks suggested people were warming to his geekiness. :-/

 

[Treacle Toes]

I genuinely blame Mel Gibson for a lot of this. Without that silly film, the absurd notion that Scotland would be better off as an independent country would not have taken off.

Nice try. Twat.

 

[Pickman's model]

the problem wasn't miliband, the problem was that labour decided they didn't want the working class and they wanted the middle class instead. they abandoned their core supporters and tried to attract tory supporters.

 

[Pickman's model]

I genuinely blame Mel Gibson for a lot of this. Without that silly film, the absurd notion that Scotland would be better off as an independent country would not have taken off.

looking at the results this morning there is no question that scotland would be better off on its own.